The Shorts
“Certainty? In this world nothing is certain but death and taxes."
-Benjamin Franklin
Benjamin Franklin probably wasn’t talking about the twos-on shot going around at Sale last Sunday but he was still right. Franklin was a wise-head and pretty good with a dollar and realizing the ambiguities of life and dealing with fools. Old Uncle Punt, well, he doesn’t deal so well with fools but he digs the value of a dollar and there aren’t too many who deal with the subtleties of life as well as your venerable and frost-bitten author.
So there is some value in the following words in moral terms even if there is attempts to undermine The Point with vicious vitriol, an ability to slip down dangerous tangents and poorly orchestrated attempts at humour.
Nothing in this world is certain, least of all a horse or a greyhound or a game of goddamn basketball. Ajax got beaten and Steven Bradbury won. I was there when Jeff Kennett lost it all and I was there when Tyson was floored by Buster. Not too many forget the rat surgery that was Bangladesh defeating Australia and then the Aussies losing the Ashes. Jesus, history is littered with good things getting rolled, certainties beaten, expected winners returning shattered and loudly jeered losers.
The only certainty I’ve ever had, well, let’s just say I managed to mess that up and left the scene drunk, disconsolate and alone. I wandered the streets wondering whether it was my screeds on the injustices Nixon received, my messed-up mumblings on drugs and the free market or the attractive brunette law student who had developed an unhealthy fascination in me that caused the certainty of love and warmth beaten like a cheap welsher.
When playing the horses, there are no certainties. Ever. Ever. You would do well to remember that. Old adages about never running up stairs and never betting odds-on have stood the test of time for a reason. Those who bet The Shorts and expect to come up breathing are fools and schmucks who should be hustled for every dollar they have and then threatened with a stomping if they try to justify their stupidity.
Odds-on, in the racing game, is nearly always a dumb bet. And the reason is simple. The great uncertainty of racing. Ian Craig talks about it and so do those in the know. The amount of things that can go wrong with a horse and a jockey and a race are innumerable. When you lay down $100 to make a profit of $60 in a horse race, you are investing in an event where so much could go wrong for your mount that the risk certainly does not equal the return.
And this isn’t factoring in the risk that your horse is or is not the best in the race. This is just the uncertainty that a horse has had a bad night’s sleep; that a jockey with a bookmaker friend who has fallen behind on his house payment and needs cash desperately is looking to make a quick and high-risk buck; that a trainer has lost his best horse shoes; that a personal feud between hoops will see one seek vengeance on the track. The list of possibilities is endless and certainly can’t be factored in individually. But they do have to be measured and accounted for. And this is done by factoring in the great uncertainty of racing.
If you bet without the due consideration for the great uncertainty of racing, you will lose. Not may lose. You will lose. The best horse often gets beaten and that is just a true and honoured fact of racing. Ajax lost at 1-40 and Lonhro and 1-16. Sunny lost when she couldn’t be beat and the amount of beaten odds-on horses that race a week would astound and shock. They are beaten daily, yet the same fools launch into them time and time again. And they will all die broke, alone, still looking for the next certainty…
The only way to make a quid on the horses is to bet value. It’s a tough ask but the theory is simple and should always be followed. You never back a horse if it is under the odds because you would never give me $150 for this big juicy hunny I’m about to pull out of my black leather wallet. Betting without value is like giving away money. You have taken away your edge and any chance of winning.
If you ever find it necessary to bet odds-on, you make sure you’re prices are right and the great uncertainty of racing has been noted. And if you haven’t bothered with these, well, give me a call because I know quite a few bookies who would be happy to have your business.
And that is where we are at.