Try Line Picks: Origin II
TLP SOOII Summary
Ratings wise this rates a closer one than SOOI. The Blues have gone for mobility and pace, albeit at the expense of specialist props. Overall, it’s a quality football side but the Maroons will improve with the run!
What TLP likes about the NSW Blues:
– An obvious one – the interchange bench! Gidley can slot into 9, even fullback – watch as they might push Minichello the bench later in the game, Hayne to full-back, Hopate pushing out to the wing and Scott into the centres. This would allow Ennis to work from dummy half with the likes of Pearce, Gidley, Hayne, Watmough, Lewis, and Bird – looks good in theory running at a tiring Maroons pack. The Maroons pack is suspect late in each half through footwork, as shown by Bird in SOOI. The back-row bench players Watmough and Lewis offer so much in attack, however Choc can be suspect under fatigue with grabbing arms. Merrin will play a lot of minutes and looked up to the task in SOOI.
– Will Hopoate! This kid is a footballer – confident in his ability and looks like he has been playing NRL for years. Hopoate is a genuine match-winner for the Blues – he can break a line, take a leaping catch, bust from dummy-half and back up on the fringe. We expect him to have real impact! Hopoate will enjoy playing against QLDs right-side defence…more on that later!
– Greg Bird! Titans fans have every right to ask why Greg Bird can’t deliver every week like he does on the biggest stage. If Greg Bird was a Queenslander he would have played over 15 SOO’s…he is like Crocker, Moore, Lindner for QLD. Gallen is the captain and on-field leader, Bird is the attitude leader – if he can drag a few experienced heads in Watmough, Lewis and Gasnier with him then they will be there at the end.
– Ricky’s effort to build culture in NSW Origin! It might work, it might fail but it needs to stay engrained into the psyche of NSW Origin sides going forward. A Caxton Street like drive around ANZ, families handing out Blues Origin jumpers, daily pieces in the paper about NSW passion, a sold-out ANZ…it’s all really good stuff, but will mean nothing if it does not continue in 2012 and every year after that growing and visible, regardless of this series result!
What TLP does not like about the NSW Blues:
– Anthony Minichello. An amazing footballer of his time, but a footballer competing with faster, tougher and way more skilful fullbacks in the comp. Minichello will need to run straight for a start – in 2011 he is crabbing, which basically does not let a set of 6 start with any punch or mental encouragement for the forwards. Minichello will have to ball play – this year he has only 4 line break assists and 4 try assists in 12 games of football. Well respected but not feared.
– Prop rotation. Gallen is a machine with a huge motor, the captain of the Blues and really will not be expected to take a rest. Does this mean he will play tight for the entire 80 minutes? Mannah and Merrin will also need to play in excess of 50 to 60 minutes, with Creagh probably getting the job as the other quasi-prop! The bench is good, but will not be worth much if the Maroons are not exhausted by minute 60. Sheer body size of QLD dictates they are probably giggling with the thought of the middle-third contest…then enter Dave Taylor. This prop strategy has the potential to blow up big time in Ricky’s face.
– The NSW spine of Minichello, Soward, Pearce and Ennis – Soward and Pearce you will take any day, the future of NSW footy. Farah must have been awfully unlucky, even Ryan Hinchcliffe, as Ennis has not performed brilliantly at this level – NSW need a standout game from their 9 to win Origins and Origin series. NSW must commit to a spine for SOOIII and all of SOO 2012 or they will not win anytime soon.
What TLP likes about the QLD Maroons:
– They were only OK in SOOI, and have plenty of improvement in them in SOOII and SOOIII! Yes, they will be better for the run and will enjoy having the old face of Inglis back in the centres. Expect Inglis to have his best game of 2011 on the back of pet plays from Thurston and Lockyer. The back-row were OK in SOOI, they have some upside especially Nate Myles who did get caught out a couple of times in defence. In short, the Maroons will be better in the 2nd game and they won the 1st after NSW were excellent!
– Matt Scott! TLP has some man-love for the big bloke from Longreach. His ability to bend the line and his footwork at the line is bordering on revolutionary. Luke Bailey had it, but lacked the power…Webcke had the power, but lacked the footwork! Watch Matt Scott closely, his ability to find the arms of defenders, particularly late in halves is amazing. But when he needs to just find metres he does it so well. Petero and Hannant are excellent players in their own right with Petero a legend of the game, but Matt Scott is only 26 and just starting the best years of his career – he could go down as the greatest modern day front rower we have ever seen by the end of his career.
– Dave Taylor to the bench! Really, not much to say here but he now knows the ability he has got and he is under no illusion he must bring it to the biggest stage. Dave Taylor will break this game open running at tiring fringe players.
– The spine of Slater, Lockyer, Thurston and Smith (throw in Cooper Cronk as well) – it makes our head hurt thinking how good they are!
– It’s Lockyer’s last Origin series, the Maroons want a clean sweep – they don’t need any more motivation than their Captain!
What TLP does not like about the QLD Maroons:
– Jharal Yow-Yeh. A fine talent, but only slightly better than average NRL winger at the moment – his issue is defence and handling. Now it’s going to be very wet and slippery, and young Yow-Yeh will make his mandatory error or two, that is a given – he makes mistakes every game with his hands. But, we have no doubt Ricky has picked young Will Hopoate to make a mess of Yow-Yeh on the right-hand defence. Neilson and Yow-Yeh will have a very classy player going at them all night, Yow-Yeh backs off way too often, whereas Neilson is an up and in defender (ala Storm). Expect Hopoate and Hayne to give Yow-Yeh nightmares – this has the potential to stall his Origin career.
– How you fit Cronk into this side! You have to pick him, he is an outstanding footballer. But, with 4 dominant players already on the field Cronk can sometimes look lost and float in and out of the game. Don’t worry, it is getting better every time they play (not good for NSW) but TLP thinks is QLD better going for real impact off the bench (Barba), another prop (Shillington / Lillyman), or back-rower that can play wide (QLD are a bit light here, Gavin Cooper / Scott Bolton).
This game will be won on the back of the kicking game, especially with the wet track at ANZ a certainty.
Soward is a great long-kick, but will the Blues play the right tactic. Be assured Lockyer will boot the ball into the corners on tackle 3 and 4 all night, turning the Blues around early and working them hard in defence for mistakes. The Maroons will be clinical and methodical, big men pushing into smaller bodies all night, then short plays through Smith and Thurston at the fringes through Inglis, Slater and later Taylor. In the 20m zone it will be repeat sets all night, they will not mind boring the ANZ crowd. The job for QLD is simple, defend all night and let Lockyer kick them to a win.
The Blues can beat the Maroons – it will take every gamble of Stuart’s to come off to get them home, they are:
– Hopoate and Hayne to kill the right-edge defence of QLD
– Prop strategy to hold firm at the beginning of both halves
– The foot-work of the bench to break the game wide open
– Minichello to keep up with the pace and add an extra man in attack
– Soward to get involved in every set as a kicker
– The ancillary activity around NSW Origin culture to influence the on-field result
Plenty of things need to happen for the Blues to win; the QLD side has just rolled into town with a job to do. They are better for the run, and Lockyer could be MOTM with a controlling hand in trying conditions.
We rate the Maroons $1.75 at a line of -2.0.
QLD by 8 points
