USPGA Championship Tips
The final throw of the 2011 major tournament dice is now upon us – the USPGA Championship. This event was played in matchplay format until 1957, after which it was reformatted into a strokeplay event. To my mind the event is worse off for the change, purely and simply because it lost its unique identity in the process.
The US Masters has picture perfect Augusta National, a course so familiar that many golf nerds are as familiar with its back nine as they are with the back nine of the local course of which they are a member. The US Open has a tough and arduous persona, where the USGA walk the tightrope between identifying the best players in the world and humiliating them. The Open Championship (or British Open if you’re feeling less traditional) has the charm of the seaside links, the requirement to play the ball along the ground as well as you do in the air and the ever-variable weather.
The USPGA Championship? It has no single discernible feature that is immediately conjured up in the mind when thinking about the tournament, or at least not in the days since it shifted away from the matchplay format. Sadly, strokeplay is the more fashionable format and with the Accenture WGC tournament now filling the niche in the matchplay market, I think the current format is here to stay. Nonetheless, it has proven to be a happy hunting ground for Australian golfers (at least those not named Greg Norman, who suffered heartbreaking defeats in 1986 and 1993), with David Graham winning in 1979, Wayne Grady in 1990 and most recently Steve Elkington in 1995.
In light of this lack of a clear theme or hook for an extended preamble before my pick (as provided for the other three majors), I’m going to skip it and move right along to the selection for this week.
To recap, similar principles to those which apply for “Sting’s racing selections” will be in place here – bets will only be recommended for a top-5 finish in the tournament of that week where the price offered is $6 or better, with odds offered by either Luxbet or Centrebet (whomever offers the best price for my selection) being used in the analysis.
Results for August 4 selections
Hunter Mahan (WGC Bridgestone Invitational): T-37.
Year to date selection results: 21 selections (excluding refunds), one winning collect, return of $6.00, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -71%
Score a $100 Free Bet from Luxbet!
USPGA Championship
The Atlanta Athletic Club plays host to a major championship for a fourth time, having previously hosted the 1976 US Open (won by Jerry Pate), 1981 USPGA Championship (Larry Nelson) and 2001 USPGA Championship (David Toms).
The course has been lengthened and revised significantly since David Toms won a decade ago, now extended in length to over 6,800 metres and with Bermuda rough ready to snag balls to veer off the narrow fairways. With fast undulating Bermuda greens completing the picture, the course will have a US Open style feel to it, with birdies at a premium and pars to always be respected.
This is a course set up to reward those who can drive the ball long and straight and find greens in regulation. And of course, like at any Major, a propensity to handle the pressure of such an event is also a key ingredient.
Heat is likely to be a significant factor, with expected temperatures in the mid-to-high 30s for much of the weekend. This is unlikely to suit many of the European brigade, albeit that regular European tour stops through the Qatar and Dubai in recent years have no doubt helped. It could suit Australians with plenty of experience playing in Queensland (such as Adam Scott and Jason Day) though!
As tempting as it was to tip one of them, sadly their short prices are already reflective of a prominent position among the favourites this week. Instead, I’m going for a long bomber from nearby Carolina, Dustin Johnson.
Statistically he ticks a lot of the right boxes – fourth on the US Tour for driving distance, 16th in greens in regulation and second in birdie average.
His ability to contend in majors is also well established – he tied for second at the Open Championship this year (after a T-14 finish in 2010), tied for eighth at the 2010 US Open and finished a heartbreaking tied fifth in this event last year after a penalty for grounding his club in a ‘bunker’ (don’t get me started on the local rules at Whistling Straits) on the final hole when in contention. Throw in a tie for tenth at the 2009 version of this event and he has two top-5, four top-10 and five top-15 finishes in his last eight starts at the majors.
In light of all this, I think the $7.25 available at Centrebet for him to finish in the top-5 this week represents a good bet.
Thanks to Andrew Redington/Getty Images Europe for use of the photo
