WGC Matchplay Preview

One of my favourite golfing events to bet in all year is the Accenture Matchplay tournament, which is the first leg of the World Golf Championship (WGC) held each year. Maybe it’s because the best players in the world so rarely compete in a legitimately one-on-one forum and the novelty of the more combative (in metaphoric terms – remember, this is still golf) environment takes hold. Or maybe it’s because the market has a distinct habit of overrating the highest ranked players in this tournament and some nice profits can be derived by looking towards their opponents.

This year the event will be held at Ritz-Carlton Golf Club in Dove Mountain, Arizona. At 7,833 yards (or around 7,160 metres) in length it poses an ominous test and one that won’t necessarily lend itself well to players unable to consistently crank out booming drives. In a strokeplay tournament, it would be a fairly safe strategy to confine your selections to the big bombers and not give it another moments thought. But matchplay golf is a different beast. At its heart is the ability to make your opponent fear the worst – to lead them to the mindset that the slightest of slip-ups on their part will see you capitalise. Inconsistent golfers rarely make good matchplay competitors, as their opponents always feel like a critical mistake is imminent. Players that frequently find fairways and greens are a much tougher proposition. But often the toughest opponent in matchplay is the mentally tough player with a dynamic short game – they look out of the running on a particular hole but save their skin with a terrific par save or on occasion, ‘steal’ the hole with a successful long range birdie putt.

Another important consideration to take account of is that the early rounds of the matchplay are played over 18 holes. A fairly obvious statement, it has to be said. But the point is that over such a short period of time, the fifth best player in the world only holds a marginal advantage over the 60^th best player in the world, and thus taking very short odds about the favoured player in any match-up is strongly discouraged. With this in mind, I’ve devised a pretty simple ratings formula for pricing up matches that uses only three basic propositions:

(1) “Base”:Before consideration of anything else, each player starts with a 50 per cent chance of winning the match. Not exactly a revolutionary thought process.

(2) “Seed”:Allowance is made here for the seeding process (which is based on world rankings). Seeds one to four in each of the four ‘brackets’ (essentially the top 16 players in the world) are assigned an increase of eight, seeds five to eight in each bracket (essentially players 17 to 32 in the world) are assigned an increase of three, seeds nine to twelve in each bracket are assigned a reduction of three and seeds thirteen to sixteen in each bracket are assigned a reduction of eight. After this process, a match involving the number one seed (now rated 58) and number sixteen seed (now rated 42) would be assigned a 58-42 probability in favour of the top seed, or be fairly priced as $1.72 for the top seed and $2.38 for the outsider.

(3) “Record”:This simply takes the number of match wins each player has had at this tournament over his career and subtracts the number of losses. For example, Lee Westwood has a career record at the WGC Matchplay of six wins and ten losses, so his “record” figure is minus four. To avoid distortions for a small group of players (such as Geoff Ogilvy and Tiger Woods) with very lopsided match records at this tournament, the “record” figure is capped at plus/ minus eight, a figure that is purely arbitrary but means that the most lopsided possible ratings match-up would be 66-34, or be fairly priced as $1.52 for a high seed with a fantastic record and $2.94 for his low-seeded opponent with a terrible record.

The moral of the story: you should not take anything less than $1.50 about any given player in any given match unless you have some inside information along the lines of knowing his opponent has been possessed by the devil and will start vomiting exorcist-style at some point in the match, which would hopefully make for a television exchange between Jim Nantz and Peter Kostis that went something like this:

Nantz: A messy display in every sense of the word on the 14^th tee there… Peter Kostis, what did you pick up on Swing Tracker?

Kostis: Well Jim, as we know, too much head movement is very damaging to a golf swing…. we see early on the downswing his head begins spinning rapidly and shotting out lime-green vomit like a garden hose… this causes his hands and arms to get ahead of the ball and instead of hitting his usual fade, we see the classic ‘double cross’ hook.

Nantz: (in a serious tone) Hmmm… a double cross of the tee, and he made need a Holy Cross to help him get it all back together and salvage par…. let’s go to Gary McCord over at 16…

Back to converting ratings to prices: once you have the ratings, any match can be priced up in a straightforward manner. For example, Lee Westwood is assigned a rating of 54 (50 ‘base’ plus eight for ‘seed’ minus four for ‘record’) and his first round opponent Henrik Stenson is assigned a rating of 50. Westwood’s estimated probability of winning would be 54/104 = 52 per cent or odds of $1.93, while Stenson’s estimated probability of winning would be 50/104 = 48 per cent or odds of $2.08.

This rating structure also has implications for the way that odds for winners of each bracket (and indeed, the overall winner of the tournament) are priced. If you take the view that in any given game, no player should be quoted at a shorter price than the aforementioned $1.52 figure, it extends that no player should be shorter than around $6 (essentially a four-leg multi with each leg paying $1.50-1.60) to win their bracket or shorter than around $15 (essentially a six-leg multi with each leg paying $1.50-1.60) to win the tournament. Allowing for a few more even match-ups as a player progresses through the tournament and the fact that you’re trying to get better than fair value, it is advised to only consider betting on bracket winners being offered at $8 or better and tournament winners being offered at $26 or better, as the assessed prices below will demonstrate. With all of that in mind, let’s take a look at the brackets:

Please note that the format adopted below for each match will be as follows:

Player A (rating, assessed first round price, assessed price to win their bracket, assessed price to win the tournament) v Player B (rating, assessed first round price, assessed price to win their bracket, assessed price to win the tournament)

As an example, Lee Westwood is given a player rating of 54 and is assessed as a $1.93 chance to win his first round match, a $13 chance to win the Bobby Jones bracket and a $41 chance to win the tournament. His opponent Henrik Stenson is given a player rating of 50 and is assessed as a $2.08 chance to win his first round match, a $17 chance to win the A B bracket and a $67 change to win the tournament.

Bobby Jones Bracket

1. Lee Westwood (54, $1.93, $13, $41) v 16. Henrik Stenson (50, $2.08, $17, $67)

8. Nick Watney (54, $1.85, $12, $41) v 9. Anthony Kim (46, $2.17, $21, $91)

4. Retief Goosen (62, $1.65, $8, $26) v 13. KJ Choi (40, $2.55, $34, $151)

5. Francesco Molinari (52, $1.88, $14, $51) v 12. Ryan Moore (46, $2.13, $21, $91)

2. Steve Stricker (61, $1.69, $9, $31) v 15. Matteo Manassero (42, $2.45, $31, $151)

7. Charl Schwartzel (54, $1.89, $13, $41) v 10. Ryo Ishikawa (48, $2.13, $21, $81)

3. Luke Donald (62, $1.68, $8, $26) v 14. Charley Hoffman (42, $2.48, $31, $151)

6. Edoardo Molinari (52, $1.90, $14, $51) v 11. Martin Laird (47, $2.11, $21, $91)

Bracket summary/ recommendations: The best bracket winner bets appear to be Luke Donald ($8 at both Centrebet and Sportsbet) and Retief Goosen ($10 at Centrebet and Sportsbet). I'm leaning to Goosen on the basis of the slightly better price and him sitting in the opposite half of the draw for this bracket to Stricker and Donald, who could meet each other in the third round. Goosen is also my best bet for the overall winner at $41, although at that price you only need a small bet! In the first round, I really like Henrik Stenson at $2.75 (Centrebet) to upset top seed Lee Westwood. Ryo Ishikawa at $2.45 (Sportsbet) to upset Charl Schwartzel is also worthy of a wager.

 

Ben Hogan Bracket

1. Phil Mickelson (63, $1.67, $8, $21) v 16. Brendan Jones (42, $2.50, $31, $151)

8. Rickie Fowler (53, $1.87, $13, $51) v 9. Peter Hanson (46, $2.15, $21, $91)

4. Matt Kuchar (58, $1.67, $10, $31) v 13. Anders Hansen (39, $2.49, $41, $201)

5. Louis Oosthuizen (53, $1.89, $13, $51) v 12. Bo Van Pelt (47, $2.13, $21, $91)

2. Graeme McDowell (55, $1.76, $11, $41) v 15. Heath Slocum (42, $2.31, $31, $151)

7. Robert Allenby (52, $1.92, $14, $51) v 10. Ross Fisher (48, $2.08, $21, $81)

3. Ian Poulter (66, $1.76, $7.50, $21) v 14. Stewart Cink (50, $2.32, $21, $81)

6. Alvaro Quiros (51, $1.90, $15, $61) v 11. YE Yang (46, $2.11, $21, $91)

Bracket summary/ recommendations:With due respect to top seed Phil Mickelson, the best bracket winner bets appear to be defending champion Ian Poulter ($8.50 at Sportsbet) and 2010 British Open champion Louis Oosthuizen ($17 at Centrebet and Sportsbet). If Poulter can get past Stewart Cink in one of the potential great first round matches in WGC Matchplay history (with the two players having a combined W-L record of 39 wins and 18 losses in this event), his half of the bracket opens up quite a bit and I'd expect him to make it to a quarter final match-up with one of Mickelson, Kuchar or Oosthuizen. In the first round, the $3.30 (both Centrebet and Sportsbet) about Brendan Jones and the $2.93 (Centrebet) about Heath Slocum are tempting but both outsiders are a long way from peak form and up against clearly superior opponents – I can't recommend either.

 

Gary Player Bracket

1. Martin Kaymer (57, $1.74, $10, $34) v 16. Seung-yul Noh (42, $2.36, $31, $151)

8. Zach Johnson (54, $1.87, $13, $41) v 9. Justin Rose (47, $2.15, $21, $91)

4. Robert Karlsson (54, $1.78, $12, $41) v 13. Hiroyuki Fujita (42, $2.29, $31, $151)

5. Hunter Mahan (52, $1.94, $14, $51) v 12. Sean O’Hair (49, $2.06, $17, $67)

2. Rory McIlroy (60, $1.70, $9, $26) v 15. Jonathan Byrd (42, $2.43, $31, $151)

7. Adam Scott (58, $1.83, $11, $34) v 10. Ben Crane (48, $2.21, $21, $81)

3. Jim Furyk (58, $1.72, $11, $34) v 14. Ryan Palmer (42, $2.38, $31, $151)

6. Miguel Angel Jimenez (50, $1.92, $15, $61) v 11. Yuta Ikeda (46, $2.09, $21, $91)

Bracket summary/ recommendations:A tough bracket in terms from a betting perspective, with no real stand-out top picks. At decent odds I'm leaning towards Adam Scott ($13 at Sportsbet). Martin Kaymer has been drawn in what appears to be the easier half of the bracket, but his fairly short price more than reflects this. In the first round, the two I like are Zach Johnson at $2.20 (both Centrebet and Sportsbet) to beat Justin Rose and Sean O'Hair at $2.30 (Centrebet) to upset Hunter Mahan. A case could also be made for first round outsiders Noh, Fujita and Byrd, albeit that all three are entitled to clear underdog status.

 

Sam Snead Bracket

1. Tiger Woods (66, $1.64, $7, $21) v 16. Thomas Bjorn (42, $2.57, $31, $151)

8. Geoff Ogilvy (61, $1.79, $9, $31) v 9. Padraig Harrington (48, $2.27, $21, $81)

4. Dustin Johnson (56, $1.75, $12, $41) v 13. Mark Wilson (42, $2.33, $31, $151)

5. Bubba Watson (53, $1.89, $13, $51) v 12. Bill Haas (47, $2.13, $21, $91)

2. Paul Casey (65, $1.58, $7, $21) v 15. Richard Green (38, $2.71, $41, $201)

7. Kyung-Tae Kim (53, $1.89, $13, $51) v 10. Jason Day (47, $2.13, $21, $91)

3. Ernie Els (57, $1.74, $11, $34) v 14. Jeff Overton (42, $2.36, $31, $151)

6. Tim Clark (51, $2.00, $15, $61) v 11. Camillo Villegas (51, $2.00, $15, $61)

Bracket summary/ recommendations:Have you ever seen a number seven seed at odds of $51 to win a 16-player bracket? Because that's what Centrebet are offering about Kyung-Tae Kim. He's a 24-year old South Korean golfer who won three times on the Japanese tour last year to top the money list and advance to number 27 in the world when the field for this event was decided last week. Whilst his appearances beyond the Asian Tour have been quite limited, his Japanese Tour form stacks up well against the likes of Ryo Ishikawa, and the World Golf Rankings formulas do take into account the quality of fields each golfer competes against, so ignore him at your peril. A small speculator on him at the $51 to win the bracket and an even smaller speculator on him at $201 (also at Centrebet) to win the whole shebang may be worth a look. A word of caution for those who have seen the ratings and are thinking about Bubba Watson for the bracket or overall winner – he withdrew from the Northern Trust Open after the opening round last week and thus has to be under something of an injury cloud, which doesn't bode well for a long stay in this knockout tournament. With that said, $2.20 (Centrebet) about him in Round 1 against Bill Haas is worth an investment. And of course, how could I knock back the $2.45 (Sportsbet) about Kyung-Tae Kim against the lower-ranked Jason Day?

Thanks to Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America for use of the photo