WGC Matchplay Rd 2 – The Perfect Punting Storm

With the Accenture World Golf Championship Matchplay event now off and running, tour professional and guest Making The Nut writer Andrew McKenzie gives us some food for thought on betting in this event, as well as his tips for the second round matchups.

At best, I would describe punting on golf as very ambitious. It is surely one the most difficult sports to predict. Attempting to pick a winner in a field of 140 is more than a tall order. There is so much depth and quality in the fields these days that almost anyone can win if they play well and their fortunes are aligned for that particular week.

Friends of mine however often insist on having a flutter and are seemingly always in my ear about my thoughts. I generally advise them that If they “must” take an interest, that they stick to the head to head betting over the four rounds, where you pick the winner of a particular matchup for the event.

A good opportunity also exists when an event is held at the same venue and you can research a players results and liking for the course.

This week’s Accenture World Match play event may just be the perfect punting storm. In my opinion it is the “mecca” of golf betting.

This unique event, see’s the world’s top 64 players play heads up match play in a knockout format. On top of this the event is also been held at Dove Mountain, which is the same venue as previous years.

It is still important to keep in mind however, that it is still golf, the matches are still only 18 holes and on a given day anyone can beat anyone. The betting reflects this. Often a clear favourite in the match is usually still only $1.70 or thereabouts on the market.

Form and momentum play a huge factor in this event, which is the main reason why I wouldn’t recommend being too vested in the first round results.

This morning (Australian time) was the first round. As always seems to be the case, there were no shortage of upsets. In fact of today’s 32 matches, the lower seed won 15 of them. The most notable upset of the day was number one seed and defending champion Luke Donald who was knocked out by South Africa’s Ernie Els.

Tiger Woods got out of jail in his match against Spain’s Fernado Fdez-Castanzo. Tiger trailed for the majority of the match, which was not of a particularly high standard. Some missed short putts over the closing holes from Fernando and a clutch up and down by Tiger, from what was a treacherous position over the back of the green on the final hole saw him escape with the one up victory.

Of the six Australians in the field, only Jason Day, and John Senden were able to progress to day two. Senden and Day will actually meet in the second round, meaning Australia will be left with only one player come the round of sixteen.

Day showed tremendous grit and fight in his win over Rafael Cabrera Bello, coming from three down with three holes remaining. He ended up forcing the match beyond the 18^thand then sealed the victory with a spectacular birdie on the first extra hole.

Of the other four Aussies in the field Geoff Ogilvy, Adam Scott, Aaron Baddeley and Greg Chalmers were all first round losers and will be heading home early.

So with round one behind them, now is the time to make some predictions. Below are my tips for the round 2 matches.

Be sure to check back in with www.makingthenut.com each day as I will be posting my tips each evening all the way through to the final.

 

Round 2

Winning selections are in bold. An asterisk represents when the underdog has been selected.

 

E Els                v          P Hanson

K Stanley        v          B Snedeker*

R Rock             v          M Wilson

D Johnson     v          F Molinari

M Kaymer      v          D Toms*

M Kuchar       v          B Watson

S Stricker      v          L Oosthuizen

Y Yang*           v          H Mahan

R Mcilroy      v          A Hansen

M Jimenez      v          K Bradley

J Day               v          J Senden*

C Schwartzel            v          S Bae

L Westwood  v          R Karlsson*

N Watney       v          T Woods

M Laird           v          M Manassero *                    

R Ishikawa*   v          P Lawrie