Analysis of NRL Over/Under Trends after Round 3
In my piece on the best betting angles for the 2014 season I suggested that the new rules implemented this year may result in more points.
In comparison to the first three rounds of 2013 this certainly seems to be true with games this year only even money to be under 40.5, whereas at this point last season matches were $1.50 to be under 40.5 and still odds-on to be under 38.5.
At the higher end matches this season have been only $1.71 to be under 44.5 against $1.33 in rounds 1-3 of 2013, while at the lower end of the scale the early rounds of 2013 were $2.00 to be under the 36.5 line, compared to $2.40 in 2014.
Even at the volatile lines we’ve already seen five matches exceed 50 points this season compared to only two in rounds 1-3 last season, while there have also been less games that have finished with under 30 points in total.
|
2014 Round 1-3 |
2013 Round 1-3 |
|
|
U30 |
$8.00 |
$6.00 |
|
U36.5 |
$2.40 |
$2.00 |
|
U37.5 |
$2.40 |
$2.00 |
|
U38.5 |
$2.18 |
$1.85 |
|
U39.5 |
$2.18 |
$1.85 |
|
U40.5 |
$2.00 |
$1.50 |
|
U41.5 |
$1.85 |
$1.50 |
|
U42.5 |
$1.85 |
$1.33 |
|
U43.5 |
$1.71 |
$1.33 |
|
U44.5 |
$1.71 |
$1.33 |
|
O50 |
$4.80 |
$12.00 |
However while this appears to have been a definite “overs” season, if we compare this year’s numbers with the entire 2013 season it doesn’t look quite so convincing.
At the lower lines of 36.5 and 37.5 the early rounds of 2014 have been more likely to come in under than in 2013. Around the 38.5-41.5 mark there is little difference and it’s only in the higher lines of 42.5 and particularly 44.5 where this season has shown a greater propensity to come in over those totals.
|
2014 Round 1-3 |
2013 (Entire season) |
|
|
U30 |
$8.00 |
$6.48 |
|
U36.5 |
$2.40 |
$2.61 |
|
U37.5 |
$2.40 |
$2.51 |
|
U38.5 |
$2.18 |
$2.14 |
|
U39.5 |
$2.18 |
$2.09 |
|
U40.5 |
$2.00 |
$1.83 |
|
U41.5 |
$1.85 |
$1.81 |
|
U42.5 |
$1.85 |
$1.68 |
|
U43.5 |
$1.71 |
$1.62 |
|
U44.5 |
$1.71 |
$1.48 |
|
O50 |
$4.80 |
$5.74 |
As the season progresses it will be interesting to see if games become organically higher scoring as they did in 2013 or whether the first few rounds have set the tone in regards to the sorts of totals we’re likely to see week-to-week.
Currently not smashing into the higher lines has been beneficial in 2014 while there still looks to be value in getting under the lower lines although this could dissipate as the season progresses.
Something else to be wary of is that 2014 has been higher scoring in spite of a glut of close matches which generally produce smaller totals, so if the margins start to expand to a more conventional level then we are only likely to see higher scoring games.
Looking in further detail there has been little variance in day matches with regards to total points scored when measuring the first three rounds this year against both the first three rounds of last year and the entire season.
|
Day Matches |
|||
|
2014 Round 1-3 |
2013 Round 1-3 |
2013 (Entire season) |
|
|
U30 |
– |
– |
$7.45 |
|
U36.5 |
$4.00 |
$2.67 |
$3.04 |
|
U37.5 |
$4.00 |
$2.67 |
$3.04 |
|
U38.5 |
$2.67 |
$2.67 |
$2.65 |
|
U39.5 |
$2.67 |
$2.67 |
$2.48 |
|
U40.5 |
$2.00 |
$2.00 |
$2.16 |
|
U41.5 |
$2.00 |
$2.00 |
$2.10 |
|
U42.5 |
$2.00 |
$1.60 |
$1.95 |
|
U43.5 |
$1.60 |
$1.60 |
$1.82 |
|
U44.5 |
$1.60 |
$1.60 |
$1.61 |
|
O50 |
$2.67 |
$8.00 |
$5.13 |
However the same cannot be said of the night matches as this season under 40.5 has been only $2 at night despite being $1.33 at the same stage last year and $1.65 for the complete 2013 season.
In general what we’ve seen is a lot of volatility with only four out of the 16 night matches so far this season falling between 31-44 total match points. Of the remainder seven have been 45 and over, while five have been 30 or less so there has been plenty of value at the bigger prices.
|
Night Matches |
|||
|
2014 Round 1-3 |
2013 Round 1-3 |
2013 (Entire season) |
|
|
U30 |
$5.33 |
$4.00 |
$5.95 |
|
U36.5 |
$2.00 |
$1.78 |
$2.38 |
|
U37.5 |
$2.00 |
$1.78 |
$2.25 |
|
U38.5 |
$2.00 |
$1.60 |
$1.89 |
|
U39.5 |
$2.00 |
$1.60 |
$1.89 |
|
U40.5 |
$2.00 |
$1.33 |
$1.65 |
|
U41.5 |
$1.78 |
$1.33 |
$1.65 |
|
U42.5 |
$1.78 |
$1.23 |
$1.53 |
|
U43.5 |
$1.78 |
$1.23 |
$1.51 |
|
U44.5 |
$1.78 |
$1.23 |
$1.40 |
|
O50 |
$8.00 |
$16.00 |
$6.26 |
So in conclusion the early signs are that this season will continue to be higher scoring, however there is still value in the volatile unders early on the year with enough games coming in around the mid-30s or below.
Whether the increase in scoring is as a direct result of the new rules is debatable – it would certainly benefit the NRL to paint that picture and no doubt they will highlight the decisive points scored in the last five minutes of three matches over the previous weekend as well as the prevalence of matches that are both high-scoring and close.
However given that the “five-minute rule” sees the clock stopped only after a conversion or penalty kick at goal, I’d suggest the close finishes and higher scores are more likely due to some of the other new rules implemented (such as awarding an extra tackle from a 20m restart) as well as a diminishing gap between the majority of teams this year and a fresh attacking approach from two of the lowest-scoring sides of 2013.