April 14 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the April 14 meetings at Flemington, Randwick (featuring the Group 1 AJC Derby) and Morphettville. It’s fair to say that this column has failed to pluck a winner for some time now, but hopefully the time-honoured (copyright: Ian Craig) rule that the punting gods must be nice to you on your birthday will help flick the switch and get this year’s results back on track. If not, I’ll have to go back to the tried and tested reverse jinx tactic next week…
Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips
Results for April 7 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – Crafty Irna
Track outside prescribed range – nil
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Folding Gear
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Testa My Patience ($9.50 SP) – unplaced
Temple Of Boom ($8.00) – unplaced
King Mufhasa ($6.50) – unplaced
Periduki ($6.00) – second
April 7 results: 4 selections, no winners
2012 results: 24 selections, 24 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -63%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -60%)
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Nil
April 7 results: No selections
2012 results: 7 selections, 3.5 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of $5.00 (POT = +43%), BOB return of $5.00 (POT = +43%)
Overall Results
April 7: 4 selections, 4 units bet, no winners
2012: 31 selections, 27.5 units bet, 2 winners, SP return of $14.00 (POT = -49%), BOB return of $14.50 (POT = -47%)
Saturday April 14
Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 5 No. 7 Chasse
He is having a career best preparation, with two wins and five placings from seven runs this time in (including two wins from his last four starts). The recent step up to 2000 metres has proved no problem, with a third to Coldens Choice and a last start win over the promising Fawkner at his first two attempts. While there are a number of well-performed horses in this race who may have a class edge on him, most are spotting him both race fitness and a couple of kilos at the weights – he appears to be really well placed in this race.
Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 2 No. 1 Efficient
Yes, everyone knows he hasn’t won in quite a while now, but I have a theory as to why. His race record stands at seven wins from 27 starts, but this is comprised of one win from 16 starts when first or second-up and six wins from only 11 starts when third up or later into a preparation. Now let’s look at his last four starts when third-up or later into a preparation (all at Group 1 level): a win in the 2009 Turnbull Stakes, a sixth (beaten under four lengths by Pinker Pinker) in last year’s Cox Plate, a flop in last year’s Mackinnon Stakes and a fifth (beaten under three lengths by Manighar) in the Australian Cup. Oh, and his last start beyond 2040 metres resulted in a Melbourne Cup win. Call me crazy, but I’d rather take $10 about him than $3.20 about a last start Listed winner (albeit that Permit does look very promising and nicely placed on the 53 kilo limit).
Race 9 No. 9 Raspberries
In a race without much obvious early speed, I’m leaning to an in-form mare that can race handy to the leaders. Her two runs this time in (a Group 3 win and a third placing in the Group 2 Sunline Stakes) see her with one of the best recent form lines of any horse in this race. Her overall record of six wins and five placings from 16 suggests a highly consistent mare, while two wins and three placings from seven goes at the mile suggests the trip will present no problem. She also has history against the boys, taking out the Group 3 Cameron Handicap at Newcastle last spring before finishing down the track in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap. I don’t think she’s up to winning a Doncaster, but she’s certainly capable of winning the Doncaster Prelude.
Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 6 No. 1 Catapulted
I always look towards the most proven performers when it comes to WFA races, which quickly narrowed this race down to Catapulted and First Command. In the end I went with the top weight for four key reasons: (1) he has an excellent record at Morphettville, with five wins and three seconds from 11 starts; (2) his first-up record stands at four wins and three seconds from eight attempts; (3) with the hot speed likely to be set by Periduki, Conservatorium and Fab Fevola, my lean is towards a run-on horse winning this race; and (4) he’s likely to be better odds. Having bestowed my kiss of death upon the toppy, you watch First Command win this now.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
