November 3 Racing Selections
Tips for this special 'midweek' column cover the November 3 meetings at Flemington (featuring the Group 1 Victoria Oaks) and Hawkesbury (featuring the Group 3 Hawkesbury Cup). And since the two occasions so far in 2011 that I've mentioned a losing streak have resulted in a winner coming almost immediately….. can the 1-race losing streak of recommended bets (i.e. those at an SP of $6 or greater) since Glass Harmonium won on Saturday be broken this Thursday? Only time will tell….. huh? What do you mean I can't use that angle every week? Killjoy.
Results for October 29 meetings
Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)
Nil
Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less
Flemington – Sister Madly ($4.00 SP, $4.40 BOB) – Won
Eagle Farm – Launay ($4.00) – unplaced
Rosehill – Tromso ($4.80) – third
October 29 Results: Three selections, one winner, SP return of $4.00, BOB return of $4.40
Overall Results: 96 selections, 18 winners, SP return of $67.15, SP POT = -30%, Luxbet BOB return of $78.00, BOB POT = -19%
Tips where the SP was $6 or greater
Flemington – Glass Harmonium ($7.00 SP, $7.50 BOB) – Won
Rosehill – Gopana ($7.00) – unplaced
October 29 Results: Two selections, one winner, SP return of $7.00, BOB return of $7.50
Overall Results: 91 selections, ten winners, SP return of $79.50, SP POT = -13%, Luxbet BOB return of $92.00, BOB POT = +1%
All tips
Overall Results: 187 selections, 28 winners, SP return of $146.65, SP POT = -22%, Luxbet BOB return of $170.00, BOB POT = -9%
Rules
(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.
(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).
Thursday November 3
Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 8 No. 4 Perturbo
A straight track specialist who ran nicely when fourth to Sepoy in the Group 2 Caulfield Sprint when resuming after a break of over two months. He has two wins from three starts over the 1000 metre scamper at Flemington and also has a win over Mid Summer Music and a fourth to Temple Of Boom in the Group 3 Aurie Star down the Flemington straight over the longer trip of 1200 metres, so his Flemington sprinting credentials are well established. Expect him to be motoring home late in the race.
Race 9 No. 4 Cosmic Causeway
Not going to over think this one. He has four wins and four placings from just 11 starts. His record improves to four wins and four placings from nine starts on dead or better ground, three wins and one placing from five starts when third up or further into a preparation and two wins and one placing from four starts at the distance. The 1600-metre placing came last start in the Sale Cup where he finished only 1.5 lengths behind Pinnacles, though admittedly in receipt of six kilos from the winner that day. With only 54 kilos in a race with many queries over runners, I think he ticks all of the right boxes.
Hawkesbury (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 7 No. 2 Willy Jimmy
At his last start, Renwed Vitality finished 4.8 lengths behind the odds-on favourite for this race in Somepin Anypin. At the start prior, he finished 7.2 lengths down the track in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap….. 4.8 lengths behind Willy Jimmy, who ran fourth in a race that the form line has been franked multiple times since by the likes of Pinker Pinker, Secret Admirer and Foreteller. When you consider that Willy Jimmy ran this Epsom fourth placing when only second up (he has only won a single race from 12 attempts first or second up), that he had only been beaten 2.1 lengths by Sincero first up and that he has five wins, three seconds at that Epsom fourth from 11 attempts at the mile, I think he is really well positioned to cause a boilover if the speed during the race is sufficiently strong.
Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
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