Racing’s Kiss of Death – March 30

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on March 28, 2013

This week’s selections cover the the March 30 meetings at Caulfield and Rosehill (featuring the Group 1 Rosehill Guineas and Group 1 Galaxy Handicap). And after a red hot start to 2013, the overall results of this column since it commenced in January 2011 are no longer too embarrassing to include, so they’ve been added to the summary details below.

Results for March 22 and 23 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Kulgrinda, Dubawi Gold, Undeniably, Single

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Rosehill – See The World ($6.00 SP, $8.00 BOB) – Won

March 22 and 23 results:   1 selection, 1 unit bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 6.00 units, BOB return of 8.00 units

2013 results:  12 selections, 12 units bet, 3 winners, 3 placings, SP return of 21.00 units (75% PoT), BOB return of 25.00 units (108% PoT)

2011-2013 results: 149 selections, 149 units bet, 18 winners, 43 placings, SP return of 135.00 units (-9% PoT), BOB return of 151.90 units (2% PoT)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Rosehill – Appearance ($11.00 SP, $14.00 BOB) – Won

March 22 and 23 results:  1 selection, 0.5 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of 5.50 units, BOB return of 7.00 units

2013 results: 10 selections, 5 units bet, 3 winners (1 dead heat), no placings, SP return of 16.00 units (220% PoT), BOB return of 18.70 units (274% PoT)

2011-2013 results: 79 selections, 39.5 units bet, 7 winners, 8 placings, SP return of 51.00 units (29% PoT), BOB return of 59.05 units (49% PoT)

Overall Results

March 22 and 23:  2 selections, 1.5 units bet, 2 winners, no placings, SP return of 11.50 units, BOB return of 15.00 units

2013:  22 selections, 17 units bet, 6 winners (1 dead heat), 3 placings, SP return of 37.00 units (118% PoT), BOB return of 43.70 units (157% PoT)

2011-2013: 228 selections, 188.5 units bet, 25 winners, 51 placings, SP return of 186.00 units (-1% PoT), BOB return of 210.95 units (12% PoT)

 

Saturday March 30

Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 5 No. 4 African Pulse

  • His record when fresh (four starts, four wins) and over 1000 metres (five starts for wins and a second, compared to four unplaced runs at all other distances) speaks for itself.
  • His previous 1000-metre wins including a victory over Karuta Queen, so he has speed to burn.
  • From abrrier one and with only 52.5 kilos (1.5 kilos under the limit) after the claim, he looks fantastically weighted.

Race 6 No. 6 Under The Eiffel

  • He is an excellent form this preparation – winning both of his last two starts and only narrowly missing out on three wins from his last four runs.
  • The lightest weight he has carried in those recent runs has been 58 kilos, so to get down to 55.5 for this race is a luxury.
  • He can race handy to the speed and in a race where a number of competitors may be short of race fitness, that may be a decisive advantage.

Race 7 No. 3 Folding Gear

  • It’s tough to go against a last start successful tip (Jet Away) to back one whom he beta comfortbaly last start, but I’ve been waiting patiently for this point in Folding Gear’s prep to jump on board.
  • He is a substantially better horse after a couple of runs back from a spell. He has no wins and two placings from 10 starts when first or second-up. However, his record thereafter reads as follows: eight starts, four wins, two placings, a seventh (beaten only 3.0 lengths) in a Caulfield Cup and an unplaced run over 2600 metres.
  • He has two wins and a placing from three previous runs at 2000 metres, including two wins from as many starts at the track/ trip.
  • He meets Jet Way three kilos better for being beaten 2.45 lengths last start. Given the weight turnaround and his usual massive improvement third-up, I think he is the value bet.

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 2 No. 6 Permit

  • His last start effort was excellent, when carrying 59 kilos third-up over 2200 metres and being edged out by Tremec (against whom an unsuccessful protest was lodged).
  • 2400 metres is his preferred distance range, winning three of six previous races over that trip, including both such races at Rosehill.
  • Given that Tremec has much further into his preparation, I think Permit has the greater scope for improvement of the two coming out of their last race.

Race 5 No. 4 Epingle

  • She is a horse who needs racing to reach her best form – she has no wins and three placings from six races when first or second-up, compared to three wins and four placings from eight races thereafter.
  • In light of this, her two fresh runs have been very good – rattling from the tail of the field to run third when resuming, then working home nicely in a slowly-run race (where the backmarkers had little chance) at Group 3 level second up.
  • While she has never attempted 1900 metres before, she was placed twice last preparation over 2000 metres – the first time giving weight to Storm Burst on a slow track, the second time taking on the boys on a heavy track. Therefore, the 1900 metres against the mares is not beyond her means.

Race 8 No. 11 Lightinthenite

  • I was quite tempted to go for the Waterhouse import Carlton House here, but the 4.5 kilo gap between the two horses at the weights tipped the ledger in favour of this galloper.
  • His first-up form is excellent, with three wins and a second from four fresh runs.
  • He has a win and a second from two previous attempts at the 1500-metre Rosehill trip.
  • Having won at Group 3 level and run fourth in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap last year, he is well and truly up to the class level required to win this race.

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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