Racing’s 2014 Kiss of Death – February 22
This week’s selections cover the February 22 meetings at Caulfield (featuring the Group 1 Futurity Stakes, Group 1 Oakleigh Plate and Group 1 Blue Diamond) and Randwick (featuring the Group 2 Apollo Stakes).
Results for February 15 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – Esprit De Bullet
Track outside prescribed range – Chieftain Jack
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Tackleberry, Club Command
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Rosehill – Steps In Time ($6.50 SP) – second
February 15 results: 1 selection, 1 unit bet, no winners, 1 placing
2014: 16 selections, 16 units bet, 2 winners, 2 placings, SP return of 15.00 units (-6% PoT), BOB return of 15.00 units (-6% PoT)
2011-2014: 236 selections, 236 units bet, 31 winners, 65 placings, SP return of 236.00 units (0% PoT), BOB return of 259.70 units (10% PoT)
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Rosehill – Dee’N’Gee ($16.00 SP) – unplaced
February 15 results: 1 selection, 0.5 units bet, no winners, no placings
2014: 9 selections, 4.5 units bet, 2 winners, no placings, SP return of 12.00 units (167% PoT), BOB return of 13.60 units (202% PoT)
2011-2014: 126 selections, 63 units bet, 11 winners, 12 placings, SP return of 64.00 units (2% PoT), BOB return of 73.90 units (17% PoT)
Overall Results
February 15: 2 selections, 1.5 units bet, no winners, 1 placing
2014: 25 selections, 20.5 units bet, 4 winners, 2 placings, SP return of 27.00 units (32% PoT), BOB return of 28.60 units (40% PoT)
2011-2014: 363 selections, 299.5 units bet, 42 winners, 77 placings, SP return of 300.00 units (0% PoT), BOB return of 333.60 units (11% PoT)
Saturday February 22
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to slow 7)
Race 1 No. 10 Final Jest
Strong winner last start at this track/ trip, up in grade but down 5.5 kilos in weight form that win, 11 career starts for 4-3-2, meets Finishing Card much better at the weights from their last meeting at Flemington (where Decircles won).
Race 5 No. 4 Foreteller
Finished less than a length behind Fiorente in the Cox Plate last year and the race fitness advantage over the favourite this time, nice first-up run in the Orr Stakes, second-up last prep he won the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes beating Puissance De Lune, won this race last year.
Race 8 No. 16 Gregers
Has 2 wins from as many starts first-up, won at Group 2 level and was placed behind Guelph in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas last prep, hasn’t raced at this trip before but has won at both 1000 and 1200 metres, 6 career starts for 4-1-0 at distances up to 1400 metres.
Race 9 No. 5 Danestroem
An on-pace runner in a race where the speed doesn’t look strong, very sound last start when second to A Time For Julia, 4 starts for 2-1-1 at Caulfield, 11 starts for 6-1-1 since joining the Mick Kent stable.
Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to slow 7)
Race 4 No. 5 Albrecht
3 starts for 1-0-1 first-up. Within his last 5 starts: beaten 3.5 lengths by Toydini in a Group 2 (who he meets 6.5 kilos better today), third beaten 3.6 lengths by Buffering in a WFA Group 2, beaten 1.1 lengths by Speediness in a Group 3, beaten 1.2 lengths by Platelet in a Group 2. To be on the same limit weight of 54 kilos as horses who have been winning in restricted grade is a steal.
Race 6 No. 3 Canny Ballad
His first-up run was excellent when second to Target In Sight, normally improves significantly with one run back (3 starts for 0-1-0 first-up, 11 starts for 4-4-2 thereafter), 2 starts for 2 wins second-up, 4 starts for 3-1-0 at the trip.
Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo