Racing’s 2014 Kiss of Death – June 7

Happy Stradbroke Day! This week’s selections cover the June 7 meetings at Moonee Valley and Eagle Farm (featuring the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap).

Results for May 31 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – Bymonashee

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Queenstown

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Nil

May 31 results: no selections

2014:  50 selections, 50 units bet, 4 winners, 11 placings, SP return of 30.50 units (-39% PoT), BOB return of 30.50 units (-39% PoT)

2011-2014:  270 selections, 270 units bet, 33 winners, 74 placings, SP return of 251.50 units (-7% PoT), BOB return of 275.20 units (2% PoT)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Eagle Farm – Belltone ($19.00 SP) – unplaced

May 31 results:  1 selection, 0.5 units bet, no winners, no placings

2014:  32 selections, 16 units bet, 2 winners, 2 placings, SP return of 12.00 units (-25% PoT), BOB return of 13.60 units (-15% PoT)

2011-2014:  150 selections, 75 units bet, 11 winners, 14 placings, SP return of 64.00 units (-15% PoT), BOB return of 73.90 units (-1% PoT)

Overall Results

May 31:  1 selection, 0.5 units bet, no winners, no placings

2014:  82 selections, 66 units bet, 6 winners, 13 placings, SP return of 42.50 units (-36% PoT), BOB return of 44.10 units (-33% PoT)

2011-2014: 420 selections, 345 units bet, 44 winners, 88 placings, SP return of 315.50 units (-9% PoT), BOB return of 349.10 units (1% PoT)

Saturday June 7

Moonee Valley(tips based on a track rating range slow 6 to heavy 10)

Race 1 No. 5 Legcut  

Prefer her back to 1000m (11 starts for 4-2-1, including 2 wins from her last 3 runs at the trip), 7 starts for 3-2-0 on slow/ heavy ground, drawn well, gets in under the limit after the claim.

Race 6 No. 6 Freshwater Storm

Meets Zuma Roc  5.5 kilos better at the weights for beating him home when they both finished behind St Jean (and 5 kilos better for beating him home the start prior to that), 3 starts at the trip for 1-1-0, 3 starts on slow for 1-0-1.

 

Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range good 2 to dead 5)

Race 4 No. 7 Liesele

Love her fresh (9 first-up starts for 4-1-1, 32 starts for 5-9-4 thereafter), 11 starts at the trip for 3-4-0, won at Listed level first-up last prep, should be plenty of early speed to suit her get back/ run on style.

Race 8 No. 10 Knoydart

Doomben 10,000 form is the best line for the Stradbroke (8 of last 12 Stradbroke winners have come through that race, though none of them have done the double in that time), gets the biggest weight drop of the beaten brigade from that race, where he was beaten less than 2 lengths, form through Lankan Rupee looks terrific, likely to jump from a middle gate after emergencies which historically is okay.

 

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo