State of Origin Selections
Last Friday night’s representative clashes have helped give us an insight into the make-up of an eagerly awaited Origin series. I am revelling in the build-up to Game One at Suncorp Stadium and have been trying to piece together the sides using form, injuries, balance and off-hand comments from coaches/selectors/journalists as my main factors. I only see a few contentious picks in the QLD team but I seem to be at odds with the leaks coming out of the NSW camp in terms of expected selections. I don’t expect to agree on every position so I have outlined my expected squads alongside my best 17.
QLD
Fullback: Billy Slater. This is an easy one. I can’t speak highly enough of the custodian.
Wingers: Darius Boyd should be back this Friday night for the Dragons and is assured selection along with Jharal Yow Yeh. Two very good players.
Centres: Inglis and Hodges are the two best centres in Australia. Not much more to add here. Inglis has assured fans he may yet be OK to play against the Wests Tigers this Saturday night but something tells me he will not be at 100% in Origin I. Unfortunately for Blues fans, Hodges will be at full fitness but there was plenty of room down his right side for Kiwi attackers last week.
Five Eighth: Darren Lockyer wasn’t at his best last Friday. He did nothing wrong but struggles to pry open the defence anymore. In fact, I will go as far as saying he is only effective in the wet these days. As a New South Welshman I fear his leadership and poise but no longer his ability.
Halfback: Thurston is in good form but he too is often found wanting when it comes to his running game. His pace and consequently his knack of piercing the line have diminished in recent seasons but few read the game as well as JT.
Backrow: Given the QLD selectors’ history of loyalty I will be surprised if they go outside the trio of Ashley Harrison, Nate Myles and Sam Thaiday. Thaiday is a certainty and while he has been struggling a bit, Nate Myles also picks himself. Personally I wouldn’t have Harrison in the 17 but that loyalty we speak of may get him home. Dallas Johnson is the better option but may have to make do with a bench spot.
Props: Matt Scott and Petero Civoniceva. Scott is clearly a leading prop in the game these days but Petero is only just clinging on. He cannot provide the minutes on the paddock anymore but his presence in the camp and his experience in big games are priceless.
Hooker: Cameron Smith.
Bench: Cooper Cronk and Ben Hannant are certainties. Both would be walk-up starters in the NSW XIII and possibly captaincy material which encapsulates the gulf between the two sides. The remaining two spots are not so easy. Given the nature of State of Origin along with Ricky Stuart’s preferred style of play, I would be gobsmacked if the remaining two reserves are not big forwards. As such, Ben Barba will not be considered. I would personally select Dave Taylor and Martin Kennedy ahead of the likes of Harrison, Corey Parker and Jacob LIllyman. Kennedy has the bonus of being a long-term Maroon proposition which gives him the edge over Lillyman but he may be overlooked if they go with both Harrrison and Johnson out of loyalty. You may argue that leaves the side with only one prop but the selectors may well think Myles or Thaiday can move in tighter if the need arises. Parker is unfortunately not the most versatile of players and with Harrison/Johnson more accomplished and experienced at this level, he cannot expect to leapfrog either. Dave Taylor is possibly a left field selection but I’m comfortable with it. While he has not performed exceptionally for the Rabbits this year, he may well benefit from the fact there is a dearth of wide runners in this side. I feel Taylor could be a valuable addition if quick points were required and I think the selectors may just agree.
Later in the series: There are no significant Queenslanders on the injury list apart from David Shillington. He will be back for Game 2. In the unlikely event they lose Games 1 and 2 then the player who missed out in the Johnson/Harrison/Kennedy/Taylor quartet may be given a run…or perhaps Barba off the bench if they choose to go down a different road.
Fisk’s ideal QLD prediction
Slater Slater
Boyd Boyd
Inglis Inglis
Hodges Hodges
Yow Yeh Yow Yeh
Lockyer (c) Lockyer (c)
Thurston Thurston
Johnson Harrison
Myles Myles
Thaiday Thaiday
Scott Scott
Smith Smith
Civoniceva Civoniceva
Hannant Hannant
Cronk Cronk
Taylor Taylor
Kennedy Johnson
NSW
Fullback: I cannot believe that Jarryd Hayne’s position is under threat. Like him or not, he has never failed to impress at this level and is not exactly struggling for form (he has scored three tries in his past two matches for Parramatta and City). He is already NSW’s most experienced current Origin player and if we are to follow QLD’s lead of providing loyalty then there is no further debate. Josh Dugan is the man set to take Hayne’s spot in the side and while I feel he would do a wonderful job, I just can’t comprehend how Jarryd Hayne will not be in the team. Is it thinking too far outside the square to play Dugan off the bench as a reserve back/dummy half? For what it is worth I think they will go with Dugan at the back but my worries have been eased somewhat since Dugan pulled out of the Manly match.
Wingers: Brett Morris should be selected on the left. Once again I feel I am at odds with the selectors and Ricky Stuart even before they have made their decision on the right winger. It seems Akuila Uate is all but selected but I would be leaning towards Michael Gordon. Just like with Dugan above, I quite like Uate but feel Gordon is the more well-rounded player. Especially under the high ball. Think back to the Brisbane v Newcastle match several weeks back and who was it that chose to send a barrage of kicks at Uate all match? Locky. It wasn’t a waste of time as two tries came directly from Uate’s errors. God forbid it is a wet night on May 25th. I would be selecting Gordon on his ability alone but his goalkicking is just as important. I also remember Gordon’s wonderful debut in Game 3 last year and it would be criminal if he was disregarded. What is the point of "blooding" someone if they are overlooked next game (especially when being one of the best on the paddock)?
Centres: Mark Gasnier and Jamal Idris are almost assured of selection and rightly so. Gaz is being touted as captain. Neither are in the class of their QLD counterparts but at least the selectors and I seemingly agree on these two. Jamal may still be very green but has shown he can successfully compete against Inglis despite the fact he may have to play in the uncustomary position of left centre (v Justin Hodges). On reflection, I am a tad concerned about centres playing out of position but who else deserves a starting spot? Had Matt Cooper not retired from rep footy that spot was his and I also feel injury has robbed Chris Lawrence a berth. Should Gasnier’s ankle injury be worse than first thought then a re-think is required but let’s make it easy by assuming he will be OK. Josh Morris should not be on the radar given his defensive frailties (they were cruelly exposed on Friday night) but if Gaz is out he would be the frontrunner along with perhaps Beau Scott or even Michael Jennings.
Five Eighth: Jarrod Mullen should hold off Jamie Soward in my opinion. I have no problem with Soward’s selection, should it pan out that way but I would be keener on the Novocastrian. Mullen has a great short and long kicking game, has played at this level and is physically able to take on the line and defend his own. He is probably one of the form halves of 2011. I’m happy to be wrong on this one as there is little in it but long-term I have to side with Mullen.
Halfback: Mitchell Pearce is close to a certainty. I am not going to sing his praises after his quiet 2011 performances but I do feel he is our best option at halfback should we go with Mullen at five eighth. Plenty has been invested in this young man and while I don’t think he is an out and out match winner, he will provide structure and organisation. He has poise, pace and is very tough. Actually, he struck up a good combination with Robbie Farah last Friday night but that may be a moot point given the fact Farah is unlikely to be considered. Pearce will come under pressure if he does not perform but I feel that whoever we select in the halves for Game 1 should be given an assurance of three matches regardless of results.
Backrow: Paul Gallen deserves to be lock and captain. Beau Scott is a certainty in my mind and I feel the selectors will pick him inside Gaz on the right side. Now Ben Creagh should be picked on the left but it is understood Ricky Stuart is not a fan. As such, the Australian backrower could start on the bench (or miss out altogether) and Greg Bird start. I had both players in my squad so won’t blow up too much on that one unless Creagh is left out completely. If that happens then we are going down the wrong path.
Props: Kade Snowden is a certainty but in saying that he is still far from the finished product. It seems to me Aidan Tolman is a great club player with plenty of minutes in him but I don’t know if he bends the line enough. I think he deserves a spot on the bench at the very least and once the sting is out of the game he could come on and get through a mountain of work. I just don’t know if he can step up should there be fireworks. It gets very cloudy for the remaining two spots. Injury will probably rob Learoyd-Lars of a spot in game one which means the likes of Keith Galloway, Dan Hunt, Trent Merrin, Tim Mannah and Michael Weyman are in the mix. I won't be too precious with my choices one way or another as there is very little between them but for what it’s worth I think Weyman is off his game at present and Merrin may not quite be ready. That leaves the remaining three so toss a coin. If you are going to honour the process of “blooding” players then Tim Mannah should get the benefit of experiencing Origin and given another go. Then probably Galloway for the bums-on-seats factor.
Hooker: Robbie Farah controlled things well on Friday and has the ability to create points. That’s what we need. We have tried to outmuscle QLD and it hasn’t worked so selecting Ennis or Young is a negative move that would be welcomed by the Maroons. Ennis cost NSW victory by giving away a crucial penalty in game three last year and should be third on the pecking order. However I fear he is first in line. Farah is the best hooker in NSW and justifying his omission by saying he is not an “Origin-type” player is an insult to Farah and the Blue jersey. After all, these geniuses also known as selectors decided that the following players were “Origin-types” and look what happened: David Williams, James McManus, Steve Turner, Ben Cross, Peter Wallace, Anthony Quinn, Ryan Hoffman, Brett White and Ryan O’Hara. Dean Young is in good form and also provides versatility in that he can move to the backrow and provide an extra kicking option. He may even be a good option for the opening exchanges but Farah should play at least 60 minutes at rake. Farah has failed at Origin level but redeemed himself in Auckland last year during the Four Nations. He deserves another chance.
Bench: Either Bird/Creagh should take one backrow spot. I would have Young/Farah on the bench as well but I fear it will be Young/Ennis. Two props should fill the other two positions and I have outlined the options above. My main concern is that Stuart will opt for someone out of form like Weyman as one of the bench props. But I am also concerned with the talk of playing Chris Houston on the bench. That would mean Creagh misses out which is frankly unfair. It also stinks of hypocrisy that they would take a risk on an unknown quantity like Houston but omit Robbie Farah who may indeed be a risk but with a far bigger upside. There is no real pace on the bench but the likes of Bird/Scott/Creagh can fill a hole in the halves or centres but an injury out wide may see the side in trouble.
Later in the series: Kurt Gidley is assured of a spot when he recovers from injury. Tom Learoyd-Lars will also step in if one of the props is off their game. Whoever misses out in the contentious fullback/wing/halves/hooker positions will be a chance later down the track while the likes of Simon Dwyer, Josh Morris, Michael Jennings, Chris Heighington and Glenn Stewart may also get a look-in if things look grim.
Fisk’s Ideal NSW Prediction
Hayne Dugan
Gordon Uate
Idris Idris
Gasnier Gasnier (c)
Morris Morris
Mullen Soward
Pearce Pearce
Gallen (c) Gallen
Scott Scott
Creagh Bird
Snowden Snowden
Young Young
Mannah Merrin
Farah Ennis
Galloway Merrin
Tolman Tolman
Bird Houston
Synopsis
I don’t want to start bagging Ricky Stuart and the selectors even before the NSW side is announced but I’m not happy with what I am hearing. Perhaps I am jumping at shadows but NSW fans have been disappointed with decisions made in selection committee meetings over the past half-decade so I guess I am just conditioned to expect the worst. Most would agree that NSW have tried to bash QLD out of the contest in the past few years and quite clearly it hasn’t worked. Rugby League is a game won by the team scoring more points and that is what NSW need to focus on. QLD are not as potent as they have been…Lockyer, Thurston and Inglis are not in the form of previous seasons. Sure, they are by far and away the better team and should win the series, but the attitude of NSW is playing into their hands. A bit of confidence and even arrogance will send the message to the opposition that we respect you but don’t fear you. Unfortunately if the NSWRL brains trust select the likes of Houston, Ennis and Weyman but discard the likes of Hayne, Creagh, Gordon and Farah then we are essentially putting up the white flag. In a positive move, the NSW team will be announced on Sunday to get a 24 hour jump on QLD but let's hope the Blues are not relying on that alone.
I truly hope to be retracting my statements when teams are named in five days but I’m not holding my breath. Before heading up to Brisbane in a fortnight I’ll post my thoughts on the game.
