The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 11
The first of the bye-influenced weeks leaves us with a shortage of matches to discuss for Round 11. And while three of the six matches on offer may not be the most enticing opportunities of the winter for a wager, the remaining three have become the focus of Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham’s energies this week.
CB
I start a trial separation with the ‘either team by less than 15.5 points’ option and the Crows-Dockers game (where the line was less than a goal) lands in the range, while the bet I actually took loses. Of course it does. Nonetheless, since bottoming out horrendously over Rounds 4 and 5 (19 units bet for a return of only 6.53 units), our last month has been pretty solid.
GO
I felt for you mate when I saw that result. Murphy’s Law. The Eagles have officially resigned as my cash cow and are doing their best to gouge back my hard earned from previous years. They were deadest shithouse on Monday – a complete lack of effort across the board. With 8 of their last 11 against top eight sides from last year they are now $1.80 to miss the eight. They’ll blame injuries but that doesn’t excuse the lack of effort from the 22 blokes who take the field. Muppets!
Results for Round 9 selections
GO – 3 selections, 4 units bet, return of 5.76 units
CB – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 1.87 units
Total – 6 selections, 7 units bet, return of 7.63 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 38 selections, 43 units bet, return of 38.11 units, -11% PoT
CB – 44 selections, 44 units bet, return of 44.55 units, 1% PoT
Total – 82 selections, 87 units bet, return of 82.66 units, -5% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Essendon (-3.5) v Carlton, MCG, 7.50pm
GO
The Bombers were humbled by the Swans in trying conditions last week. They’ll be a bit heavy in the legs after that encounter. Carlton have plenty of pace outside, speedy forwards and good users of the ball off half back which could play havoc for Essendon. I don’t have a great track record betting either of these sides but I’ve got a feeling the Blues are a good thing here. Take the $2.02 straight up.
CB
I’m not taking the points against my own side. Forget that.
What I am doing, though, is backing the under. Since the start of 2012, night games have gone 63-38 (62%) under, while teams coming off a break of six days or less (as is the case for both the Blues and Bombers) have gone 99-67 (60%) under. In that period, the Bombers are 5-2 under and the Blues 6-3 under on the quick turnaround.
Saturday
GWS (+87.5) v Geelong, Skoda Stadium, 1.40pm
Adelaide (+10.5) v Sydney, AAMI Stadium, 4.40pm
Gold Coast (+17.5) v North Melbourne, Metricon Stadium, 7.40pm
CB
Some fodder to begin the day but a couple of intriguing matchups thereafter. Who do you like?
GO
Staying right away from the arvo game. The minus is the only play given GWS’s form but the Cats could send their VFL side north this week so bugger that. Scott Thompson and David McKay are both in doubt. Two prime movers out against the deepest midfield in the game. 10.5 won’t be enough points I fear…
CB
I couldn’t have less interest in the Giants-Cats game, but have four fun facts for the subsequent match:
Fun fact 1: Since Round 13 of last year, the Swans are 17-5-1 straight up, or 16-1-1 straight up (with a percentage of 160) if you exclude games against Hawthorn and Geelong.
Fun fact 2: Since Round 17 of last year, the Crows are 10-9 straight up, implying that they’ve been a middle of the road side for some time now.
Fun fact 3: In 2013, the Crows are unbeaten against sides with a losing record, but lost all five matches to teams with a record of 5-5 or better.
Fun fact 4: I’m laying the points here.
GO
Gold Coast have been super impressive in the last few weeks, all year for that matter. There is a chance they might get Dixon back which would be a massive boost for them. Their run and drive is outstanding. They hunt in packs and have some strong options at either end of the ground. North had a big win last week but that was mainly due to them blowing the Saints away early. There was plenty of emotion involved in that performance as well. They’ve struggled to maintain momentum this year and that could continue this week. You’ve got to like the look of the Suns at the plus at home.
CB
I’m with the Suns at the plus and also the under here. Since the start of last season, North have a 13-6 ATS record at Etihad but a 4-8 record interstate, including a 1-4 record as an interstate favourite. The Suns are a minimum of three goals better at home than on the road, and are 6-2 ATS when coming off a break of seven days or more (North are 1-2 when coming off a break of six days or less). They could sneak an upset here, so three goals seems quite generous to my eye.
Over the same period, the Suns are 10-5 under as home underdogs and 9-2 under at night, while North are 4-1 under as interstate favourites, 3-2 under at night and 7-4 under off a break of six days or less. The Kangaroos won the corresponding match last year 87-80; a repeat of that score would be tremendous.
Sunday
St Kilda (+18.5 to +19.5) v West Coast, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
CB
St Kilda are 1-4 ATS at Etihad this year, West Coast are 7-8 ATS interstate since the start of 2012 and were so bad on Monday night that this line moved inwards by more than a goal. No thank you.
GO
St Kilda are battling. They’re not getting enough from their jets and the mosquito brigade are too one dimensional. If Reiwoldt doesn’t play the lights out they really struggle to score. We’ve spoken about the Eagles already. West Coast can get stuffed. No play.
Monday
Melbourne (+75.5) v Collingwood, MCG, 3.15pm
CB
Collingwood have a terrible recent record as favourites, Melbourne are deplorable. Once again, my match preview can end abruptly.
GO
Melbournes’ recent record against the Pies is pretty good but it’s hard to see them holding Collingwood this week. They’re missing some big names already and with Frawley out it’s hard to see who will stand Travis Cloke. Pies by plenty but not worth a throw at this stage.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Carlton H2H @ $2.02 (Luxbet)
2 units on Sydney -10.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Gold Coast +18.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
CB
1 unit on Essendon v Carlton under 195.5 total pts at $1.75 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit on Sydney -10.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Gold Coast +18.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Gold Coast v North Melbourne under 195.5 total pts at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
