The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 13
The final week of bye-ravaged fixtures is upon us and once again, we have six very warm favourites this weekend. However, that hasn’t stopped Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham managing to find a bet or two in the past, so why would it stop them in Round 13?
CB
Disclaimer: I really don’t like many of the lines this week and therefore will be keeping the number of bets this week to a minimum.
GO
Last week was a bit of a bust…The Blues played really well on Friday and it was only their lack of polish that denied them the points. The Suns were disappointing given their recent form but as well as they’ve been tracking they look like they are starting to tire. The breaks come at a good time for them. Lynch going down really hurt their structure and made it tough for them get reward for effort. Some big lines to test this week – I think another multi might be in order…
Results for Round 12 selections
GO – 3 selections, 3.5 units bet, return of 0.00 units
CB – 3 selections, 3 units bet, return of 1.87 units
Total – 6 selections, 6.5 units bet, return of 1.87 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 44 selections, 50.5 units bet, return of 43.84 units, -13% PoT
CB – 51 selections, 51 units bet, return of 53.86 units, 6% PoT
Total – 95 selections, 101.5 units bet, return of 97.70 units, -4% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Hawthorn (-31.5 to -32.5) v West Coast, Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm
GO
At a glance you’d expect the Hawks to win this one pretty comfortably. They’ve been relentless in their pressure across half back and that sort of effort has been cutting the Eagles to bits in recent times. Woosha’s men have been lax on this front seeming at times disinterested. They’ll welcome back the bookends in Kennedy and Glass as well as Le Cras and Waters, it’s always nice to have four of your best half a dozen come especially the leaders in Glass and Waters. Hawthorn have the edge through the middle and that will be enough for mine. Five goals a bit much but -11.5 @ 1.38 will slide into the multi nicely.
CB
West Coast have proven themselves over the past couple of years to be a suspect betting proposition when travelling interstate, so that rules out taking the plus. However, the time has also come to bid a sad farewell to the “Hawks minus and over when playing in Melbourne” cash cow. It had a wonderful 2012 (11-7 ATS and 13-5 over), but this year both scenarios sit with a 3-4 record despite the fact that they sit atop the ladder. The market has finally found its right mark in both respects with Hawthorn, and thus I won’t be betting here.
Saturday
Port Adelaide (+36.5) v Sydney, AAMI Stadium, 1.40pm
St Kilda (-39.5 to -40.5) v Melbourne, MCG, 4.40pm
Western Bulldogs (+34.5 to +35.5) v Richmond, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm
CB
Not exactly a ratings bonanza in store on Saturday. Can you find us a bet or two?
GO
Port had a big win but may find the defending premiers a slightly tougher assignment than GWS. There’s plenty of excitement surrounding Tippet. His first game for Sydney in the town he abandoned. Great theatre. I’d imagine there might be a few Crows faithful who make the journey to wish the big man well. He’s in for a big reception. He’ll have the last laugh though. Sydney will be big winners. No Boak for the Power and a Swans midfield that’s as deep as it gets. This could be dangerous. Take the minus and also jam -23.5 @ 1.50 into the multi.
The death of Mark Neeld’s career and the resurgence of Neil Craig – will it be enough to get the Demons up and about? Reiwoldt and Dal Santo play their 250ths and the indefinite suspension of Milne following rape charges a decade in the making. It’s really tough to see where this one will go…There will be plenty of emotion on both sides and given their collectively 3-19 on the season it’s a pretty easy one to jump off.
CB
The recent head-to-head record at AAMI (four straight Swans wins, but only one win of more than 30 points) suggests that you should take the points here, but everything else points to Sydney.
Against the spread in 2012 and 2013 to date Sydney is 12-5 interstate, 6-2 as interstate favourites, 6-3 as favourites of more than 30 points, 14-3 in the day and 19-8 off a break of even days or more. By comparison, Port is 6-11 at home, 5-11 as a home underdog, 10-11 in the day and 4-4 off a backup of six days or less.
The last two Port home matches resulted in losses by 41 (Richmond) and 48 (Geelong), while Sydney have won their last three matches by an average of 56 points – against teams ranked sixth or lower on the 2013 ladder, they are 7-0 this season with an average winning margin of 44 points. I’m happy to lay the points for the defending premiers.
Leave me out of the Saints-Demons match from the lines perspective – after the last week I have no idea what to make of either team. However, the 2013 trends do give a push for the under. The Saints are 3-1 under in Melbourne and 5-2 under off a break of seven days or more, while the Demons are 5-2 under as underdogs in Melbourne and 6-4 under off a break of seven days or more.
GO
The Tigers were clinical last week in their demolition of Adelaide and the Bulldogs, although competitive in the second half were meek at best against the Pies. Griffen and Minson are the only Dogs that can hold their heads high at the halfway mark where the Tigers are going from strength to strength. They are now at the point where not putting away the lesser sides is no longer acceptable and they have the self-belief as a group to ensure it doesn’t happen. Also throw -22.5 @ 1.50 in the multi.
CB
No strong trends to give a push for in the late game – in a role reversal from last year, the Tigers have started 2013 as a decent under team while the Bulldogs have a lean to the over (despite the difficulties they’ve often had with posting a decent score themselves). No bet for mine.
Sunday
Fremantle v North Melbourne (-22.5 to -24.5), Patersons Stadium, 3.15pm
Brisbane (+31.5 to +32.5) v Geelong, Gabba, 4.40pm
CB
My initial impression was to grab North at the plus – for whatever reason, the four-goal line felt a little large. However: (1) Lyon has coached against Brad Scott five times for as many victories, including four by 50 points or more; (2) the last three Freo-NM matches at Patersons have seen the home side win by 29, 61 and 53 points; and (3) over 2012 and 2013, North Melbourne is 4-9 ATS interstate and 6-11 ATS in the day. It’s enough to talk me out of taking the plus.
Instead, I’m going to stick with the gravy train that is the under in Ross Lyon coached matches. Over 2012 and 2013, the Dockers are 10-1 under as home favourites, 13-7 under in the day and 18-7 under off a break of seven days or more.
As for the final match of the week, Brisbane have only covered in one of their six home matches so far this year, while Geelong have failed to cover in all 10 matches across 2012 and 2013 where they started as favourites of more than five goals. The resistible force meets the movable object! I’m steering clear of this match.
GO
Fremantle will win this one comfortably. With Walters expected back and Pavlich a big chance too they’ll be primed. Their pressure across the park will wreak havoc against the Kangas whose high possession style isn’t conducive to the rush. North must win to keep their finals chances alive, realistically their finals chances are dead in the water. Patersons is a bridge too far for the Roos. They’ll be competitive but Freo are too good right now. -5.5 at 1.36 for the fourth leg.
Brown and Merrett back will strengthen the Lions spine but it’s tough to see them generating enough ball to stay in the game against the Cats. They punch above their weight at home and they’ll be buoyed by the re-signing of Ruck prodigy Matty Leuenberger but enthusiasm will only get you so far. Too much class in the Geelong outfit for mine and they’ll get the choccies. Cats -11.5 @1.31.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit on Sydney -36.5 at 1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Richmond -34.5 at 1.91 (Centrbet)
1.5 units on Hawks -11.5 (1.38) > Swans -28.5 (1.60) > Tigers -22.5 (1.50) > Freo -5.5 (1.36) > Cats -11.5 (1.31) – Custom Multi at $5.90
CB
1 unit on Sydney -36.5 at 1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on St Kilda v Melbourne under 185.5 total pts at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit on Fremantle v North Melbourne under 170.5 total pts at $1.91 (Bet365)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
