The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 16
Last week the Kennett Curse reared its head to the dismay of the Hawthorn faithful – will the Cairns Curse afflict Tigers fans once again in Round 16? Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham assess the lines for the upcoming weekend of fixtures.
CB
A moment of forewarning: I like a number of the lines this week, but they tend to involve backing terrible teams with the start. There’s a decent chance that by the end of this column you will either think I’m a genius or a future insane asylum patient, with little in between.
GO
You’re keeping your nose in front whilst I keep finding ways to blow it up. Good call on the Pies. Carlton were disgusting after the first 20 minutes and they deserve to be outsiders to make the eight. Ablett having a sneaky spell didn’t help the cause but last minute withdrawals are always a risk. Oh yeah, almost forgot, that curse thing seems to still be intact. OUTRAGEOUS!
Results for Round 14 selections
GO – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 1.91 units
CB – 5 selections, 5 units bet, return of 5.80 units
Total – 9 selections, 9 units bet, return of 7.71 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 55 selections, 63 units bet, return of 53.39 units, -15% PoT
CB – 65 selections, 65 units bet, return of 67.26 units, 3% PoT
Total – 120 selections, 128 units bet, return of 120.65 units, -6% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Collingwood (-26.5 to -28.5) v Adelaide, MCG, 7.50pm
GO
Beams returning for his first senior game will be a massive boost for the Pies. He gets plenty through the middle but is damaging forward and should allow Swan to remain on the ball for longer periods of time. McKernan out through suspension hurts the Crows options forward of centre, they are critically short of tall options now and this should allow Reid to play forward and share the load with Cloke which proved damaging last week. The Crows are a step off but they play well against the Pies. Look at the under 173.5 but not too hard.
CB
The Magpies have most of the ATS trends pointing their way. In particular, they’re 4-1 at night and 6-3 off a break of 7 days or more this season, while the Crows are 0-2 at night and 0-2 off a break of 6 days or less. However, 3 of the last 4 matches between these teams at the MCG have ended with a margin of less than a goal, which is enough to stop me from laying more than 4 goals here.
The under is also appealing. Over the past 2 seasons, Collingwood are 16-5 under at night, 17-5 under as home state favourites and 18-10 under off a break of 7 days or more, while the Crows are 6-3 under at night over the same period. However, with a total in the low-170s, the market already has these trends pegged.
Saturday
Port Adelaide (+24.5 to +26.5) v Hawthorn, AAMI Stadium, 1.45pm
Geelong (-67.5 to -68.5) v Melbourne, Simonds Stadium, 2.10pm
Richmond (-23.5 to -24.5) v Gold Coast, Cazaly’s Stadium, 4.40pm
Brisbane (+14.5 to +15.5) v North Melbourne, Gabba, 7.40pm
Carlton (+17.5 to +20.5) v St Kilda, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm
CB
This is a big week for Port Adelaide, Richmond, North and Carlton in particular. Who do you like?
GO
Hawks and Port would both be disappointed after last week. Neither side maximised their opportunities and lacked some starch in close. The Power have been great at home beating the Eagles, Swans and Pies but the rebounding Hawks should prove a bridge too far. Even with rain in the forecast, over 155.5 looks a great bet unless it snows. Both teams are strong in transition and have potency in the forward line.
Demons are looking more settled under Craig but against the league leaders at home it’s tough to make a case for the points. Geelong is likely to rest a few this week so with that in mind it’s an easy leave.
The Tigers have never beaten the Suns at Cairns, or anywhere for that matter and on the strength of that alone you have to consider the 4 goal plus. Gold Coast are a tough beat anywhere at the moment and Richmond were insipid last week. I for one think the Tigers are too good a side to not bounce back from last week and that’s just enough to keep me off this one.
CB
The ATS trends give a slight lean to the Power at the plus, but the Hawks have won their last two matches against Port at AAMI by over 5 goals, so I might let this one slide.
Fun facts for the Geelong-Melbourne clash:
Fun fact 1: Over 2012/13, Geelong is 0-10 ATS when favoured by more than 30 points.
Fun fact 2: Melbourne has covered in each of their 3 matches under Neil Craig.
Fun fact 3: Geelong has won the last 8 head to head, but the margin has been between 30 and 54 points on 6 occasions (including 4 times out of 5 matches at Simonds Stadium during that period).
Fun fact 4: I’m going to….deep breath…. back Melbourne at the plus.
Richmond have spent the entire 2013 season demolishing the teams that they should beat (their last 7 wins have all come by over 30 points), but Cairns has been their bogey ground to date. Meanwhile, the Suns have developed an annoying habit of being well on track for a cover at three-quarter time, only to fall in a screaming heap in the final term and thus cost me money. I’m steering well wide of this match.
GO
North finally put four quarters together which was great to see. If they can maintain that form then they’ll do it easy. Brisbane are a five goal better side at home than elsewhere and North have proven inconsistent so you have to give the Lions a show here but it’s risky entertaining two sides who are so up and down.
The Saints have dominated the Blues in recent times winning 16 of the last 18 encounters. Not many of them has meant as much to the Blues though. Waite won’t get up this week after being subbed out with a crook knee and the Saints will welcome back Reiwoldt, Kossie and possibly Milne with a combined 1300 career goals. Take the points.
CB
To anyone who questions whether different AFL grounds matter, I submit to you the following evidence over 2012 and 2013 to date (outright wins, point differential and ATS records):
North Melbourne at Etihad: 14-7, +28 avg point differential (117-89), 14-7 ATS
North Melbourne away from Etihad: 6-10, -12 avg point differential (88-100), 5-11 ATS
Brisbane at Gabba: 9-9, 0 avg point differential (92-92), 11-7 ATS
Brisbane away from Gabba: 6-12, -29 avg point differential (76-105), 7-11 ATS
Carlton at Etihad: 5-9, -1 avg point differential (95-96), 6-8 ATS
Carlton away from Etihad: 12-10, +12 avg point differential (94-82), 11-11 ATS
St Kilda at Etihad: 9-9, +14 avg point differential (103-89), 10-8 ATS
St Kilda at Etihad: 6-12, -1 avg point differential (90-91), 7-11 ATS
It’s a fairly simplistic and crude analysis I’ll grant you, but even if North aren’t quite 40 points better, Carlton 13 points worse and St Kilda 15 points better at Etihad, nor Brisbane 29 points better at the Gabba, there is more than enough to highlight some underlying trends.
Now add this:
The Kangaroos have won the last four matches against the Lions at Etihad, but the Lions have won the last four matches played at the Gabba.
St Kilda has beaten Carlton all three times under Scott Watters, all played at Etihad.
In light of all this, it’s the Lions and Saints both at the plus for mine.
Sunday
Sydney (-72.5) v GWS, SCG, 1.10pm
West Coast (+10.5) v Fremantle, Patersons Stadium, 3.15pm
Western Bulldogs (+37.5 to +39.5) v Essendon, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
CB
Sydney could win by 100 points if they feel inclined to do so, or by 40 points if they wanted to keep plenty of petrol in the tank for bigger matches down the track. Suffice to say, I won’t be playing here.
I love the Dockers minus in the second game. From Round 16 of 2012 onwards, they are 11-1 at Patersons while the Eagles are 7-7. This year, the Eagles are 1-6 ATS at home, including 0-3 as home underdogs. The Dockers have won 9 of the last 12 head-to-head, including the last 2 by margins of 65 and 28 points. With Mundy, Pavlich, Sandilands and Barlow are gaining a little match fitness last week against the Saints, I think the purple haze will win handsomely.
The Bulldogs really appear to have lost their way in the last few weeks and appear to be ripe for the picking by the top-4 Bombers. I have a slight lean to the minus, but the prospect of a junk time underdog cover as the Bombers take their foot off the accelerator late in the game is enough cause for hesitation.
GO
The battle for the bridge is a nothing contest. GWS will be brave but get soundly beaten.
Fremantle deserve to be laying substantially more points here. The Eagles have been flattered be mediocre opposition in recent times and without Hurn, Selwood x 2, Waters and Shuey they are no chance. Load up on the Dockers who have assumed the mantle as the under rated WA cash cow.
Dogs-Bombers might be a decent under play given the lack of potency at Footscray and the injuries to Essendon’s prime movers. I’m struggling to see where the 30 goals are going to come from here, especially given the form of Hooker and Carlisle who chew up the space and intercept at will.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit Hawthorn v Port Adelaide over 155.5 points at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit on St Kilda +20.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
2 units on Fremantle -10.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit Western Bulldogs v Essendon under 190.5 points at $1.91 (Bet365)
CB
1 unit on Melbourne +68.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Brisbane +15.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on St Kilda +20.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
1 unit on Fremantle -10.5 at $1.91 (Centrebet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
