The 2013 AFL Lines – Round 17
The Round 17 lines see three matches open as essentially “flip of the coin” affairs – with two of these matches involving teams around the fringes of the top eight in Port Adelaide and Carlton, the ramifications of results this week could be felt as far away as September. Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham preview the weekend ahead.
CB
One thing we haven’t discussed much in this column is the importance of shifts in the match lines throughout the week.
For example, last week Melbourne opened +64.5 against Geelong, peaked at +68.5 on Wednesday night/ Thursday morning (the time of release of the week 16 lines column) and then shortened up to +63.5 on the Saturday as torrential rain hit Geelong. If you bet the opening or closing lines, Geelong covered. However, if you caught the peak line for the Dees, your bet fell in by half a point.
While some lines are very stable across the week, many shift by a few points from the opening line, and thus understanding when in the week to jump in and grab the best line is a big part of making a long-term profit.
GO
There were a few nervous moments on Sunday evening but the Dockers managed to salute in the “get out of jail Stakes” and romp home. What was possibly the most impressive element of that win was the fact the Eagles played their best football of the year and served it right up to the Premiership hopefuls.
It’s true what you say about the market shift – case in point with the Hawks v Port game. It opened in the mid 170s and I was very happy to take that but then it was crunched into 155.5 with the threat of weather. Naturally I had to have another little dip at it at the 155.5. Late personnel changes can’t be factored but I think at the end of the day, the opening lines are the best way to go. You assess the odds based on the available information and make your play before the market has had its chance to speak.
Results for Round 14 selections
GO – 4 selections, 5 units bet, return of 5.69 units
CB – 4 selections, 4 units bet, return of 5.73 units
Total – 8 selections, 9 units bet, return of 11.42 units
Results for 2013 selections
GO – 59 selections, 68 units bet, return of 59.08 units, -13% PoT
CB – 69 selections, 69 units bet, return of 72.99 units, 6% PoT
Total – 128 selections, 137 units bet, return of 132.07 units, -4% PoT
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
North Melbourne (-2.5 to -3.5, 192.5 total) v Carlton, Etihad Stadium, 7.50pm
GO
Yuck! North are a cancerous proposition for punters at the moment. Their inability to control four quarters of football make them unbackable but their underlying talent and the knowledge their best football is red hot, al la last week, makes them tough to bet into. Carlton aren’t a side you can trust to win a flip of the coin game but with both sides having so much at stake this week I’m backing it to be close. You’ll get 2.50 plus either side under 15.5 which is worth a nibble.
You’ve got an interesting take on this one…
CB
North Melbourne is producing some amazing quarter-by-quarter splits in 2013.
Across all venues, they're averaging 33 points scored per 1st quarter to 15 conceded (+18 point differential), but for the rest of the match the averages are 69 scored to 73 conceded. At Etihad it gets even better – an average of 39 points scored to 15 conceded! They weren't all lowly opponents either – against Collingwood, Geelong and Richmond combined, they scored 96 points and conceded only 61. Carlton's stats are marginally better in the 2nd half than the 1st, but this is all about North.
Now…. ask yourself this question: Do I want to back the Kangas -3.5 and sweat out the second half, or back them in a poorly priced market which concludes earlier? They got to a price of $1.80 to win the 1st quarter earlier in the week, but that price is now gone. However, the 'race to 25 points' market is a reasonable proxy for a 1st quarter market, and you can still get $1.80 there. Take it.
The other bet I like here is the under. Both teams come off a 6-day break (sides doing so this year are 47-24 under or 66%, compared to 53% under when off a break of 7 days or more). These teams are a combined 6-3 under off a 6-day break, 8-4 under at night and 9-5 under at Etihad. 3 of the last 4 matches head to head have totalled under 180. This line is a generous one.
Saturday
Hawthorn (-63.5 to -66.5, 192.5) v Western Bulldogs, Aurora Stadium, 1.45pm
GWS (+70.5 to +73.5, 199.5 to 202.5) v Essendon, Skoda Stadium, 2.10pm
Gold Coast (+28.5 to +30.5, 174.5 to 177.5) v Collingwood, Metricon Stadium, 4.40pm
Melbourne (+28.5 to +30.5, 172.5) v Brisbane, TIO Stadium, 7.40pm
St Kilda (+2.5 to +4.5, 183.5) v Port Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm
CB
Hmmm….. not too much to get excited about from a footy fan’s perspective in this set of matches. Can you find us a bet or two?
GO
I’m not a massive fan of the first four head to head lines. Big teams expected to win by big margins is usually a tough gig. Players get rested, the cue gets put in the rack, it’s all a bit of a side show and hard to predict. Taking on big lines is a mugs game. That being said you can generally trust the good sides to beat the shit sides by 5-8 goals so using Centrebet’s custom lines we can wind these all back and have ourselves a nice little Saturday multi.
Hawthorn are a class above the Dogs and the -35.5 @ $1.21 sits comfortably. Likewise the Bombers over the Giants where -49.5 with get you $1.30. In the Pies Suns game you could get Gold Coast with a 50 point start which looks pretty tasty but I prefer the Pies -10.5 at $1.40 given the Suns recent fade outs, the injury worries over Ablett and the form of the Pies with Beams back in the mix.
CB
To my mind there is nothing to get excited about whatsoever in the Hawks-Bulldogs match.
Both the Giants and Bombers are coming off a 6-day break (they are a combined 6-1 under this season when doing so), so I will play the under in the second match.
All the trends in the Suns-Magpies game also point to the under. The Suns are 6-3 under at home, the Pies 3-0 under interstate and the 2 teams a combined 8-1 under in the twilight (16-6 under if you add twilight and night games together). However, both teams have seen more than half of their matches over 180, while the two matches between these teams have both cracked 200. The mid-170s line is too tight to warrant a play.
GO
Brisbane will dust up the Demons but the Darwin factor makes taking on the 5 goals start a little iffy. A two goal handicap feels right here and that’ll get you $1.34 minus 11.5. Port will beat the Saints head to head and it’s tempting to throw them into the multi full noise and juice up the odds but we’ll stay conservative and wind them into $1.50 +9.5.
CB
I don't like Melbourne on the road, I don't like Brisbane on the road, I don't like better under on a low-170s line unless Ross Lyon or a monsoon is involved, I don't like betting over at a venue where the last 3 matches have totalled 125, 140 and 106. Done and done.
St Kilda is 3-12 this season overall (1-12 against sides not named Melbourne or GWS) and they're nearly a coin flip against a top-8 side? Ridiculous. The Power was overrun by Hawthorn last week, but they won't be the first nor last to befall that fate. Prior to that, they beat Sydney and Collingwood before threatening Essendon at Etihad. $1.90 straight up about the Power at Luxbet – thanks very much.
Sunday
Richmond (ML to +2.5, 164.5) v Fremantle, MCG, 1.10pm
Adelaide (+27.5 to +29.5, 171.5) v Geelong, AAMI Stadium, 3.15pm
West Coast (+12.5 to +13.5, 186.5) v Sydney, Patersons Stadium, 4.40pm
CB
Freo against sides not named Geelong or Hawthorn in 2013: 11 wins, 1 loss (by 4 points), 1 draw, average of 92 points scored and 65 conceded. Richmond against the same criteria: 10 wins, 4 losses, average of 97 points scored and 79 conceded. The Dockers lost to Essendon by 4 points, beat Collingwood by 27 and beat North Melbourne by 38; the Tigers lost to Essendon by 29 points, Collingwood by 34 and North Melbourne by 62. The Dockers should jump two goal favourites in this match to my eye – being able to back them straight up at even money is a luxury.
The line in the Crows-Cats match looks like a trap to mine. The Crows are running of out of chances/ motivation, while the Cats have a tendency to coast a little in matches where they are strongly favoured. The bet that I like here is the over. These teams have totalled over 170 in 20 of 30 matches (Adelaide 9/15; Geelong 11/15) in 2013. 6 of the last 8 matches head to head (including 4 of 5 at AAMI) have totalled 180 or more.
The Eagles are 1-7 ATS at home this year, 0-4 as home underdogs, 1-3 as underdogs of less than 15.5 points and deserve to be outside the top-8 this season. Their best scalps of 2013 are Adelaide, North Melbourne and Brisbane (all 6-9 on the year).
Meanwhile, Sydney against sides not named Geelong or Hawthorn in 2013: 11 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw, average of 113 points scored and 75 conceded. The Swans have won the last 6 head-to-head, with 2 of the past 3 being decided by over 50 points. They've won their last 3 against the Eagles by a combined 117 points; Freo have done likewise by a total of 121 points. If you liked the Dockers minus last week (as I did), the Swans minus is a strong bet here.
GO
Fremantle lose the Pav to suspension but they’ve been killing it in his absence all year so that won’t slow them down. The Tigers need a big scalp and this could be it on their home ground. Freo have performed well enough at the G this year and they have a gun midfield. Crowley will go to Deledio and we know the Tigers running machine hates a hard tag. McPharlin out could cause some headaches without a natural matchup for Reiwoldt but I’m expecting the midfield battle to have more of a bearing. Sandilands is improving and he could be the difference. Fremantle are a genuine top four side and the Tigers were thumped two weeks ago before narrowly beating the Suns – to get the Dockers at their current head-to-head price represents value.
Adelaide and Geelong is a tough game. The Crows seem to find a way to be competitive with the best sides without every really threatening but the Cats are all class so this one really could go either way. Dangerfield will miss a month and that’s almost enough to take on the Crows but there’s better bets out there this week.
West Coast were valiant last week and their work rate was phenomenal. Their lack of polish with key midfield runners absent and their first choice half backs in Hurn and Waters made their transition a bit sloppy. Sydney thrives on pressure footy and the ability to cause turnovers so this will be a major factor in the outcome of this one. Traditionally they’ve been close games but the Eagles are wallowing at Subiaco this year. The Eagles have to win a big one at home sooner or later but I don’t think it will be this week. Swans by plenty.
Recommended bet summary
GO
1 unit Carlton v North Melbourne either side by less than 15.5 points at $2.52 (Centrebet)
1 unit on the Saturday Multi: Hawks -35.5> Ess -49.5 > Coll -10.5 > Bris -11.5 > Port +9.5 at $4.43 (Centrebet)
1 unit Fremantle ML at $2.00 (Bet365)
1 unit Sydney -12.5 at 1.92 (Luxbet)
CB
1 unit on North Melbourne "race to 25 points" at $1.80 (Luxbet)
1 unit on North Melbourne v Carlton under 192.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet 365)
1 unit on GWS v Essendon under 202.5 total points at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
1 unit on Port Adelaide -2.5 at $1.92 (Luxbet)
1 unit on Fremantle ML at $2.00 (Bet365)
1 unit on Adelaide v Geelong over 171.5 total points at $1.91 (Bet 365)
1 unit on Sydney -12.5 at 1.92 (Luxbet)
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
