The AFL Lines – Rd 12
Recent losses by Fremantle, Essendon and Richmond have given a number of sides outside the top eight a glimmer of September hope (at least for the time being), albeit that with the dominant form of the top four, any such September action is likely to be short-lived. Meanwhile, back at Making the Nut headquarters, the season-long betting duel between Cliff Bingham and Greg Oberscheidt threatens to get lopsided earlier than anticipated. The boys are back this week with their recommended bets for the weekend.
CB – Another solid week in Round 11, with a combined record of 7-1 for recommended units bet against the spread. Given the awkwardness of the match-ups, I felt relieved to get through with a 2-1 record, only to lose even more ground to you in our season-long clash. Going 5-0 on units bet against the spread in an awkward week of matches is just obscene.
GO – You were a bit stiff with Buddy being a late withdrawal. The Hawks definitely missed him and that probably cost you a perfect round too. Another week of tough games and all we can do is take in the facts and hope for the best. It’s been working so far.
Summary of Round 11 results
GO – Four selections, five units bet, return of $9.50, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 90%
CB – Three selections, three units bet, return of $3.80, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 27%
Summary of overall results
GO – 18 selections, 23 units bet, return of $34.20, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 49%
CB – 15 selections, 17 units bet, return of $17.10, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 1%
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: St Kilda –12.5
GO – It’s always tough to find an angle when both sides are so desperate for the points. Montagna is set to miss with a knee injury and the Saints will miss his run and carry. Bulldog Callan Ward is all through the news with whispers he could be set to sign with GWS for up to $400,000 a year more than he could hope for at the kennel and he’ll be out to impress. Both sides have been atrocious this year when under the pump, and the stakes won’t get higher with the winner keeping their faint September hope alive. As such, I’m not comfortable recommending a bet here.
CB – How the mighty have fallen – grand finalists (St Kilda) and preliminary finalists (Western Bulldogs) for each of the past two years, these sides meet in Round 12 with a combined 2011 record of 6-13-1. Of the two, St Kilda has had the slightly better case for optimism over the past three weeks. Head-to-head, St Kilda has won each of the last five matches (albeit that two wins have been by seven points or less), adding a little impetus to my leaning towards the Saints. However, the two-goal advantage to the Saints in the bookmakers’ line feels about right and therefore I cannot recommend a bet here.
Saturday
Adelaide v West Coast, AAMI Stadium, 3.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: West Coast –9.5
GO – Adelaide were blown away early last week and although they rallied were comprehensively beaten. West Coast continue to impress and with “big Cox” in career form it is hard to see the crows winning enough contests to be able to stop the roll on. Kennedy, Lynch and Le Cras make a formidable attacking trio and with Embley and Shuey impacting the scoreboard the Eagles have too many weapons up their sleeve. Adelaide have struggled to find goals in any real numbers and as such the minus is the play. One unit on the Eagles at the minus.
CB – The Crows are in a dire situation. Either side of their most recent win (at home against the Suns), their last four losses have come by margins of 96, 43, 40 and 47 points. The recent head-to-head record between the teams is telling, but not the way you might ordinarily expect. Adelaide has won three of the last four matches (from 2008 to 2010) including both games at AAMI Stadium. However, West Coast won six of the seven matches prior to that (from 2005 to 2007), including all four matches at AAMI. This says to me that home field matters little for these two – simply back the better side. That would be the Eagles, and therefore I will bet two units on them at the minus.
Gold Coast v North Melbourne, Metricon Stadium, 7.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: North Melbourne -20.5
GO – Gold Coast impressed greatly with their grit and spirit to come back from 40-odd points down against a good side away last week and make a contest. Ablett is in cracking form and the signs are promising. North were great last week but much of that stemmed from one of the all time great, individual performances from Swallow. I hope Bluey McKenna gives young David a run on his older brother this week and I think the kid will wear him tight. Smith versus Goldstein in the ruck will be another important battle and once again I think the younger has shown enough to think he’ll get it done. Play one unit Gold Coast at the plus.
CB – I quite like the Suns here. North Melbourne are 0-3 interstate this season, including a loss to Brisbane in Round 9. In recent times the Gold Coast have shown much promise, defeating Brisbane in Round 7, leading Geelong at half time in Round 10 and putting up a brave last three and a half quarters against West Coast last week. If they can avoid any 15 to 20 minute stretches where they let in five goals, they can win the game outright. Even if they do have one such stretch, I still like them to cover the line – one unit on Gold Coast at the plus.
Geelong v Hawthorn, MCG, 7.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Geelong -18.5
GO – I’m praying that Buddy gets through alright on Thursday because the Hawks are no chance without him. Last start they started well but got run down so a more consistent effort is required. Chapman looks likely to return for the Cats and they’ll welcome the edge he brings to the contest. Hodge was well down last time but expect a different result this week as the skipper nears full fitness. The Hawks need to win to lay claim to being a genuine contender and I think they get it done this week. With the Buddy variable, I won’t be able to make a decision on this one until Friday, so no play for me. PS – I like the Hawks at the plus if Franklin is in.
CB – The $64 question in this match: Will Lance Franklin run on for Hawthorn? His absence was significant last Sunday against the Dockers and it is far from desirable to be missing a key forward for an encounter with a 10-0 side. Head-to-head, Geelong has been victorious in each of the last five encounters (by margins of 19, two, nine, one and eight points) since losing the 2008 Grand Final to the Hawks. I cannot recommend a play because of the Franklin effect, but am of the view that Geelong should be two-goal favourites if Franklin plays and four-goal favourites if he does not.
Sunday
Carlton v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium, 1.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Carlton -48.5
GO – Bad news for Brisbane fans, with Merritt likely to miss up to ten weeks with stress fractures in his back. The big man has been in All Australian form and has been much of the reason why the Lions have been competitive in defeat so far this year. Carlton had a tougher than expected hit out last week but they have enjoyed putting sides to the sword this year and with Jamison set to play a tight game on Brown, I think eight goals won’t be enough. Murphy and Judd have been great but Gibbs has been down. Don’t be surprised to see Kreuzer take up a spot in the goal square this week. I like Carton to win by ten goals so I will recommend one unit on the minus.
CB – Two teams headed in very different directions in 2011, and there is no immediate reason to see that changing here. Carlton arrive here on the back of two convincing wins against bottom-nine sides – the most impressive facet of their play in 2011 thus far has been their defensive structure, which has seen them conceded 85+ points only twice in ten matches to date. Conversely, the Lions have only scored 80+ points four times this season and have found themselves on the end of substantial losses at home against top eight sides in Essendon and Sydney. Head-to-head, Carlton has won four of last six (including both games at Etihad, winning at the venue last year by 55 points). To my mind, Carlton should win by plenty, but the 48.5 points is just enough to see me leaving this game alone.
Sydney v Richmond, SCG, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Sydney -24.5
GO – Richmond coming off the bye will be fresh no doubt but that hasn’t played out well for everyone this year. The Swans had a good win last week and should welcome back Mumford from injury. The SCG has been a graveyard for many years so the minus looks a reasonable play but I still don’t trust the Swans. All my years of abusing them is coming back to haunt me and as such I won’t be betting on this one.
CB – The Swans appeared to reclaim a little of their mojo last week against Brisbane and I expect them to maintain their momentum this week. Head-to-head, Richmond won by three points at the SCG last year but lost the previous eight matches against the Swans (five of which were at SCG – by margins of 55, 19, 82, 66 and 48 points). I think this match will be a tale of two defences. Richmond has not conceded less than 89 points in any match this year, while Sydney has been this frugal eight times out of ten. The confined spaces of the SCG should negate some of the most dangerous run of the Tigers and play into the stifling, stoppage-based style of Sydney. However, Richmond are sufficiently dangerous and the Swans are sufficiently grinding in their style to suggest that this will not be a blowout, so no recommended bet for me.
Fremantle v Essendon, Patersons Stadium, 4.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Fremantle -3.5
GO – The Bombers really struggled last week in the absence of their skipper. The three rucks have been blamed for all their woes but the truth of the matter is, when their top clearance players are in, the three tall system is an advantage. With Sandilands still likely to miss, the extra ruck seems like a smart play, but Ryder is in woeful form and he doesn’t seem to have the intensity to make an impact. Freo were great for three quarters last week and then fell to bits. I expect them to bounce back this week and with a small line I’ll be playing one unit on Freo at the minus.
CB – This must be a tough game to promote: “One team can’t win without their star ruckman, the other can’t win in the west… Dockers! Bombers! The resistible force meets the movable object, coming up next on Fox Sports One!” Essendon have a record of 6-19 at Patersons Stadium (side note: it still feels weird not to refer to it as ‘Subi’) overall, including three losses from their last four trips over there to take on the Dockers. Meanwhile, the Dockers have lost their last nine matches when the man mountain Aaron Sandilands has not taken the field. It feels like the sort of game you would need a serious gambling habit to take on – no play for me.
Monday
Collingwood v Melbourne, MCG, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Collingwood -29.5
GO – The Dees were good last week against minimal opposition and this week will be a true test of their character. One good performance does not a footballer make – Jack Watts, I’m looking at you. The Pies will miss Daisy and Swan but this will open the door for Sidebottom and Co to have an extended run in the middle. Beams will miss eight weeks with a foot injury and his impact around goals can’t be underestimated. Melbourne shaped up well to the Pies last year, but that was on the back of the absent Mark Jamar. The Pies should win well, but Monday is a big day for the Dees and they have been unpredictable at best. I’m going to sit this one out.
CB – Seven of Collingwood’s nine wins thus far have come by more than seven goals, and five of them have come by more than 50 points. Four of Melbourne’s five losses have been by 41 points or more. At face value, those statistics point to a Magpie win by more than seven goals. However, last year saw a draw and a one point Collingwood win between the two teams. Prior to that, Collingwood won the previous four encounters between the teams by 66, 53, 21 and 11 points. With Dane Swan closer to the Grand Canyon than the MCG and Dale Thomas sitting this one out via suspension, my enthusiasm for the Magpies in this match diminishes a little, but so too has the bookmakers’ line. I will go for one unit on the Magpies at the minus.
Recommended bet summary
GO – One unit on West Coast -9.5, one unit on Gold Coast +20.5, one unit on Carlton -48.5 and one unit on Fremantle -3.5
CB – Two units on West Coast -9.5, one unit on Gold Coast +20.5 and one unit on Collingwood -29.5.
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
