The AFL Lines – Rd 15
Round 14 saw West Coast enter the top-4 debate, Aaron Sandilands go down again to leave the Dockers vulnerable and the Demons and Kangaroos vault to the front of the queue of teams battling it put on the fringes of the top-8. Round 14 also saw Greg Oberscheidt continued his fine punting form while Cliff Bingham went into a Maverick/ Goose like tailspin. The boys are back this weekend with further rants and their recommended bets for the first time since Luxbet came on board as a sponsor of the Making the Nut site.
CB – Ye gods, what an awful week for yours truly. The lost Collingwood bet was excusable – after all, they led by around six goals at one point in the third term and had 11 more scoring shots than Sydney, which should equate to covering a 32.5-point line. However, tipping Richmond after an extended spiel that ended with “there is barely a struck match between them in terms of exposed 2011 form” was completely inexcusable.
I am going to switch tack a little from this week onwards, tipping a margin and then converting that a recommended bet (or no bet, as the case may be). Clearly, things need to be shaken up a little. And there definitely need to be fewer bets each week – my best two or three tips are subsidising losses on the fourth and fifth tips each round – that needs to stop.
Back to people who know what they are doing on the punt – you were a bit stiff in the end not to finish with a 6-0 sweep, with poor kicking from Collingwood and Geelong placing the cue in the rack ten minutes early proving the difference.
GO – Geelong had seven changes, most tellingly, Ottens and Kelly out on game day and still nearly got the job done. You’d imagine that being 80 points in front with ten minutes to go might just cover a nine-goal line but the kids ran out of puff and Adelaide kicked five of the last six to cover by two points. As I watched the last eight minutes I think I invented about 36 new forms of profanity as the punting Gods decided to get even with me for the Dogs covering post siren last week.
Let’s not focus on the losses but on the wins. It’s loads more fun. North Melbourne continue to be a cash cow and I reckon they’ll probably be the bet of the week again this time round. The Dees are also showing a few signs that they can compete consistently so there is money to be had, if you like money of course…
Summary of Round 14 results
GO – Five selections, six units bet, return of $7.60, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 27%
CB – Four selections, five units bet, return of $1.90, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -62%
Total – Nine selections, 11 units bet, return of $9.50, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -14%
Summary of overall results
GO – 33 selections, 40 units bet, return of $55.10, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 38%
CB – 25 selections, 30 units bet, return of $28.50, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -5%
Total – 58 selections, 70 units bet, return of $83.60, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 19%
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Melbourne –2.5
GO – The midfield battle is shaping up to be a cracker with Moloney and Boyd going head to head as the top two clearance players in the comp. Jamar returning has seemed to lift the Dees to another level and Watts is growing into his mantle. Melbourne has lost their last ten at Etihad but I expect them to break that hoodoo this week. The Dogs struggled to put the Suns away last week and Hudson’s form at ruck must be a concern. They will miss the run of Sherman who has been a consistent performer in a disappointing side. With the short line I’m pretty comfortable that Melbourne will get it done, one unit on the Dees -2.5. If this game was anywhere other than Etihad I’d go harder at them.
CB – This game is of immense importance to the Demons’ finals prospects – they have a bye next week followed by Port Adelaide at home, but then have a four-week stretch of Hawthorn, Geelong, Carlton and West Coast. In fact, I would go so far as to say that if Melbourne don’t win their next two, they can kiss September goodbye. Head-to-head, the Bulldogs have won each of the past four matches, albeit these came in a period where they had a far superior side to Melbourne. While both sides come here on the back of two victories, I think Melbourne are going clearly the better of the two and with Mark Jamar offering plenty upon his return last week will tip them by three goals. In light of that, I will have two units on Melbourne at the minus.
Saturday
Richmond v Carlton, MCG, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Carlton –25.5
GO – Carlton will be out to reaffirm their position as a genuine contender this week and on the strength of that alone I would be thinking this line isn’t big enough. That being said Jamison, who is in All Australian form, will miss a month and that will greatly impact their structure. Waite may return from a hamstring to fill the breach and Duigan could also be back this week. Kruezer and Warnock will dominate the ruck and Judd is never down two weeks in a row. Reiwoldt has been out of sorts for a month now and Richmond relies heavily on their midfield to kick a score. As such I’ll be playing one unit on the Blues – 25.5
CB – More telling than the loss to West Coast last week may be the growing injury list down at Princes Park. That said, some temporary respite might be at hand this week. The Tigers rank last in the league in clearances – against Judd and Murphy, this statistic is unlikely to change. Moreover, head-to-head Carlton has won each of the past six matches (including their opening round clash this season) by margins of 20, 89, 56, 20, 83 and 30 points. Richmond also don’t have the same calibre of talls (Riewoldt excepted) to cause Brett Ratten headaches as the Eagles did last week – Carlton by four goals. Against a 25.5-point line, that means no recommended bet for me.
Fremantle v Gold Coast, Patersons Stadium, 3.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Fremantle -42.5
GO – Sandilands is doubtful to return this year and if he does it will be at half mast. Fremantle are showing how good a side they are by remaining competitive in the midst of their injury woes and at Subiaco you’d imagine that they could just about get the job done. That being said Gold Coast are so enigmatic that it is almost impossible to justify betting their matches. Fremantle will win but seven goals is far to long to get me interested and Gold Coast can’t be trusted. No play.
CB – Hmmm…. Freo are back to limping along with Sandilands for the next few weeks, while the Gold Coast are a young side who play in patches. This feels like a trap game to me on all fronts. The Suns’ record interstate stands at one win from six attempts, including an 18-point loss to West Coast in Round 11. Errant kicking and wet conditions prevented the Dockers from winning by more than 23 points against Brisbane last week and I think they can win by a little further this time around as a result – Freo by six goals, but no recommended bet.
Essendon v Geelong, Etihad Stadium, 7.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Geelong -42.5
GO – Essendon have been abysmal over the last month. The reluctance of the coach to even admit that Paddy Ryder is in heinous form, hints at some systemic issues that run deeper than on field performance. I’m considering a blanket rule of taking on any side containing Ryder for the remainder of his career. Jobe Watson is a bloody good player but I don’t think his presence, or lack thereof, is justification for a 12-goal swing in output. The Cats are flying and I am working on the assumption that Bartel, Ottens and Kelly will all return this week and on the strength of that I think this could get lop sided. One unit on Geelong to cover.
CB – I picked a bad week to head to Melbourne and watch my team play – coming in off five straight losses, running into a 13-0 opponent and without the services of our best player in Jobe Watson. Head-to-head, Geelong has won each of the past six matches by margins of 71, 31, 64, 99, 50 and 42 points. I’m going to stop talking now, this is too depressing – no recommended bet.
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Adelaide v Sydney, AAMI Stadium, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: Sydney -17.5
GO – Whilst the Crows performances have been nothing short of diabolical over the last two months, I have a funny feeling that they are due for a big performance this week. I have nothing to really base that on other than how highly I rated them preseason and my own narcissism won’t allow me to believe I got it so wrong. The main discussions surrounding the Swans have been their ability to beat the teams they should (and their inability to beat the sides above them), but I think the Crows are a good match up for them. Jack out hurts the Swans as well. I’m going to leave this one alone.
CB – As discussed a little earlier, the margin of defeat to Collingwood flattered Sydney – they lost by 11 scoring shots, which somehow equated to only six points. Their record against very poor teams is strong though, defeating Port Adelaide and Brisbane by 62 and 65 points respectively. Head-to-head, the Swans won last year by 43 points at AAMI Stadium to snap a run of six straight losses against the Crows. Nonetheless, their overall record at AAMI is reasonable, with 11 wins from 24 attempts. Adelaide have lost their last six matches by an average of almost seven goals apiece, and I see no reason to suggest a significant change in trend here – Swans by six goals. I will therefore have two units on Sydney at the surprisingly small minus.
Sunday
Brisbane v Port Adelaide, Gabba, 1.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Brisbane -18.5
GO – Aaaaaaaaaaaah. I’d rather cut myself than sit through this. Is there any chance that both sides could lose this one? Turn off the lights and let them play in the dark. It will be a better spectacle. No play.
CB – What an ugly, ugly game between a pair of 2-11 sides. Difficult to turn off the lights in the early afternoon, but if we could arrange a solar eclipse at the Gabba, that would be much appreciated. Brisbane has lost their last four by an average margin of 45 points, while Port has lost their last three by an average margin of 43 points. Head-to-head, Brisbane has won three of the last five matches, but interestingly only one of the last three played at the Gabba. Amazingly, in only 13 clashes at the Gabba these sides have played out a draw twice, with Brisbane winning on seven occasions and Port Adelaide four. For the sake of a tip, I’ll pick the Lions by two goals, but there is no way in hell that I’ll be parting with cash on such an encounter.
Collingwood v Hawthorn, MCG, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Collingwood -20.5
GO – I’d like to think that Hawthorn have a chance to win this one but with Sewell and Rioli definitely out and Lewis likely to lose his appeal at the tribunal they will be down to skeleton staff and I think the combination of Dawes and Cloke will be too much for the Hawks defence. I won’t bet against them but if I were impartial, I’d probably have a nibble on the Pies. It will be intriguing none the less to see how the Hawks possession style matches up against the Pies press. No play but eagerly waiting.
CB – This one might be closer than you think. Both teams have a form line through Geelong – the Magpies losing by three points, the Hawks by 19 points (in Round five) and five points (in Round 12). Head-to-head, Hawthorn has won five of the last six matches, with a thumping handed out by the Magpies in Round four of 2010 being the only exception. With Buddy back from a one-week suspension, Collingwood are far from across the line in this match, despite their mantle as the competition yardstick. Magpies by two or three goals for mine, though the line is not quite big enough to lure me into taking the plus.
North Melbourne v St Kilda, Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: St Kilda -3.5
GO – I think that North are up there with West Coast as the form side in the comp (outside of the top four). They have been competitive all year and now with most of their cattle on track are showing what a good side they are. Conversely, St Kilda are a shadow of their former selves. Coming off the bye they’d be hoping to make a statement but I think that North have them covered in every aspect of the game. I never would have believed this 12 weeks ago, but for the third week in a row I’m going to play two units on North at the plus.
CB – This one promises to be a far better match than the respective ladder positions of these teams would suggest. North have won their last four matches by convincing margins, and while St Kilda have only won three of their last seven, the four losses came against Carlton, Hawthorn, Collingwood and Geelong – completely excusable. Head-to-head, St Kilda has won four of the last six matches, including two resounding victories last season. However, as with the Bulldogs-Melbourne clash, the power base has shifted significantly between seasons. The desperation and motivation of both sides should be up with seventh and eighth on the ladder now a matter of legitimate debate. Flip a coin here – with a gun to my head I would tip North Melbourne, but with no confidence, and therefore no recommended bet here for mine.
One final thought before the recommended bets summary:
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Recommended bet summary
GO – One unit on Melbourne -2.5, one unit on Carlton -25.5, one unit on Geelong -42.5, two units on North Melbourne +3.5
CB – Two units on Melbourne -2.5 and two units on Sydney -17.5.
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
