The AFL Lines – Rd 18
Round 17 was certainly the round of the boilover, with the Gold Coast, Fremantle and North Melbourne all saluting as underdogs and the Lions pushing Geelong for three and a bit quarters before succumbing. These results leave the AFL landscape in a state of flux and a few of the Round 18 matches well and truly up for grabs. Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham are back with their thoughts and recommended bets for the upcoming round.
CB – That was another terrible round that I don’t want to talk about any further. We’ve got seven weeks plus finals to right the ship and regain a bit of ground lost over the past three weeks. It’s time to get cracking.
GO – Disgusting – momentum shifts and ineptitude have definitely been the mitigating factors over the last few weeks. Or collective results are now showing a loss, so there can be no more stuffing around. That being said there are some big lines this week and recent form shows no one can be trusted. It will be an interesting week.
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Summary of Round 17 results
GO – Four selections, five units bet, return of $0.00, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -100%
CB – Two selections, three units bet, return of $1.90, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -37%
Total – Six selections, eight units bet, return of $1.90, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -76%
Summary of overall results
GO – 45 selections, 56 units bet, return of $62.70, Profit on Turnover (POT) = 12%
CB – 33 selections, 43 units bet, return of $36.10, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -16%
Total – 78 selections, 99 units bet, return of $98.80, Profit on Turnover (POT) = -0.2%
(Please note – all times are EST)
Friday
St Kilda v Adelaide, Etihad Stadium, 7.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: St Kilda –41.5
GO – St Kilda are back in good form and with Reiwoldt yet to hit his straps, it would seem they are going to be around to try and upset a few characters in September. Adelaide killed me last week giving up a six-goal lead after Johncock went off injured. St Kilda will win this one, but trusting them to take care of a seven-goal line is a bit rich. Adelaide have proven they cant be trusted to check the mail let alone play four quarters of competitive footy so I’ll be staying off this one.
CB – An ugly game to begin proceedings for Round 18. The Crows are down and all but out (albeit that their last two performances at home showed signs of fight), while the Saints are in improved form but still can’t kick a big score against decent opposition. Head to head, St Kilda have won each of the last four matches played at Etihad, by margins of 47, 57, 48 and 2 points. Interestingly, in the last seven matches between the teams at all venues (four at Etihad), only once has the total score for the match exceeded 170 points. I’m tipping the Saints by six goals in a match where entertaining footy will almost certainly be the loser, and will not be wagering on this game.
Saturday
North Melbourne v Brisbane, Etihad Stadium, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: North Melbourne –41.5
GO – North Melbourne have been good to me this year and I’m a bit wild I didn’t get on them last start, but after their performance against Collingwood, how could you trust them. Brisbane have lost their best player and their inspiration with Jono Brown out for the year, but he had little impact as they stuck with the Cats for four quarters. J-Pod kicked eight against them which leads me to believe that Petrie could have a day out, but seven goals is just too much for me to have a play at this one.
CB – The Lions have been okay in patches over the past month, hanging tough for extended perios against Fremantle and Geelong and defeating Port Adelaide. Head to head, North Melbourne and Brisbane have only clashed twice in Melbourne (both matches at Etihad) since 2006, with the Lions winning by 18 points in 2009 and the Kangas winning by a solitary point last year. The big question is: do you trust a 7-9 side to take care of a 41.5 point line? I don’t. Brisbane have won five of the last seven matches between the teams overall and thus even with Jonathan Brown out, I’m not expecting a landslide here. Kangas by six goals for mine, and thus while I’m tempted to take the plus for the Lions, I’d hate myself for doing it and then watching them play like a 3-12 side minus their best player. I’ll pass.
Sydney v Western Bulldogs, SCG, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Sydney -12.5
GO – The Swans form at the SCG has been ordinary this year and after a bruising encounter last week against Freo it will be hard for them to get up again this week. The Dogs are in good form and with Big Bad Bustling Brain-fading Beef-eating Barry Hall announcing that he wants to be remembered as a Bulldog, we can expect him to have a big crack against the Swans where he was premiership captain in 2005. I said last week that I wanted another strong performance from the Dogs before I’d have a bet on them and I didn’t get that, so I’ll be ignoring this one as well.
CB – Two teams who were upset last weekend and now see their finals campaigns approaching the crossroads. Ill discipline at critical moments may have cost the Swans last week, while the performance of the Bulldogs was a little more damning, Head to head, the Bulldogs have won six of the last eight (going back to 2008), but only one of the last four played at the SCG (going back to 2005). With so much at stake, I feel like Sydney will have a little more intestinal fortitude than the Dogs and that will see them across the line – Swans by two goals, with no recommended bet.
Gold Coast v Collingwood, Metricon Stadium, 7.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Collingwood -74.5
GO – Gold Coast coming off a win will have their tails up but will be no match for the Magpies juggernaut. The Pies will win this one by 15 goals and as such I’ll have one unit on the minus. Please don’t rest anyone Mick.
CB – I’m not sure there’s much that can be said here. The Magpies are such a dominant side that they could cruise to a ten-goal victory here or turn on the afterburners and win by 100-plus points. The 74.5 point line feels too betwixt and between for my liking, so I will sit this one out.
Essendon v Carlton, MCG, 7.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Carlton -16.5
GO – The Bombers had a break out win against Geelong but since then have had shaky, come-from-behind wins against the Tigers and the Crows, both of whom are real battlers. Whilst the Blues are in a bit of a slump I think that the Bombers form has been a bit over-rated and the Blues need a big win here to consolidate a top four spot. With so much on the line I’m expecting the Blues to make a statement and win this one comfortably. One unit on Carlton – 16.5
CB – Four weeks ago I wouldn’t have bitten on a five goal start for the Bombers. However since that time the Blues have hit injury troubles and a lapse in form (poor kicking by Collingwood led to a flattering score line last week), while the Bombers have posted three wins, albeit that the latest two have been via rather patchwork performances. Head to head, the last 13 matches have seen six wins to Essendon, five wins to Carlton and two draws, including their thrilling round four encounter earlier in the year. All told, seven of the last 13 matches between the two clubs have resulted in a margin of 16 points or less. That tells me to take the points – for the first time this season, my wallet and heart will be in sync with one unit on the Dons at the plus.
Sunday
Geelong v Richmond, Etihad Stadium, 1.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Geelong -46.5
GO – Geelong are struggling at the moment and appear to have run out of legs mid-season. They have a good opportunity to get some form back against the Tigers, who don’t deserve to be playing in the AFL right now. The Tigers need to play a big game this week to legitimise their early form and give some faith back to their member. Geelong should win this by ten goals but I thought that last week as well, so I’ll be staying off this one.
CB – The Punt Road hierarchy must’ve paid heed to an April Fool’s Day joke suggesting that the season would only run for 13 weeks this year. I’m struggling to find any other rationale for their performances since that time. Head to head, Geelong has won the past six matches, four by margins exceeding ten goals (including the two matches during that period played at Etihad). The Cats are slightly off key at the moment, which is the only thing that prevents me from taking the minus in this match – Cats by eight goals and no recommended bet.
Melbourne v Hawthorn, MCG, 2.10pm
Bookmakers’ line: Hawthorn -26.5
GO – Carn na Hawkies! The bye has proven fruitful over the last five weeks and with the Dees coming back from Darwin I think they will be a bit drained. Hawthorn should regain Lewis, Rioli and Sewell this week and will be bubbling. Hawthorn have dominated the Dees over the last four years or so and I don’t expect anything to change this week. With no hint of Rose distorting my glasses I think the Hawks will win by 50 and as such I’ll play two units on the Hawks at the minus.
CB – Melbourne’s record against top-5 teams says it all really – they lost to Hawthorn by 45 points in the second round, lost to West Coast by 54, lost to Carlton by 47 and lost to Collingwood by 88. Hawthorn’s record against bottom-12 teams (excluding the opening round) shows ten straight wins by 45, 63, 32, 46, 30, 29, 22, 71, 65 and 42 points. Head to head, Hawthorn has won the past seven matches (including a 45-point victory in the second round of this season), with four of these wins coming by margins of between 19 and 22 points. The patterns seem pretty straightforward – Melbourne get beaten up by good sides, Hawthorn beat up on mediocre to poor sides. I’ll take the Hawks by six goals in this match and have one unit on the minus.
Fremantle v West Coast, Patersons Stadium, 4.40pm
Bookmakers’ line: West Coast -16.5
GO – Freo had a good win last week, a gutsy win but much of that was on the back of an outstanding performance from Nate Fyfe who is proving to be a jet and drawing comparisons with a young Jimmy Hird. Scott Selwood will get the job on him this week and his form as a run-with stopper has been phenomenal. Rumours abound that Sandilands will come back this week, but Freo made the mistake of rushing him last time and he had little impact. McPharlin holds the key for the Dockers as the in form fullback in the comp, but I think the Eagles have too many options available and the Dockers are bleeding badly. West Coast will win this one and only the derby factor is holding me back from a bigger bet – one unit on West Coast at the minus.
CB – Whilst licking my wounds from a losing two unit bet on the Eagles at the plus last week, I got to wondering whether the form had been slightly inflated by defeating a Carlton side lacking the talls to handle the likes of Cox, Nic Nat, Kennedy and Lynch and an out of sorts Geelong side, who lost to Essendon and took a long time to dispose of Brisbane in the weeks either side of facing the Eagles. Meanwhile, the Dockers gutted out a strong victory in Sydney (traditionally a poor venue for them) to move back into sixth place, within a game of West Coast. Head to head, the Dockers had peeled off seven straight victories before the Eagles toppled them by 33 points in round eight of this season. I’ve marked West Coast as one goal favourites, and thus will be having one unit on Fremantle at the plus.
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One final thought before the recommended bets summary
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Recommended bet summary
GO – One unit on Collingwood – 74.5, one unit on Carlton – 16.5, two units on Hawthorn -26.5 and one unit on West Coast – 16.5
CB – One unit on Essendon +16.5, one unit on Hawthorn -26.5 and one unit on Fremantle +16.5.
Thanks to Mark Nolan/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
