The Early Line: Round 12

Filed in The Early Line by on May 23, 2012

Melbourne have opened up 5.5 to 6 point favourites in their top of the table clash with Brisbane. The three Storm Origin representatives are set to back up while Matt Gillett is the only one of the five Broncos named for the match. The Storm have won 14 of 18 against the Broncos including 8 of the last 9 in Melbourne. The Storm are 20-11 ATS at home and 34-19 ATS as a favourite since 2010 while the Broncos are 18-12 ATS on the road in that time. As an underdog, the Broncos are 13-9 ATS. There is a small lean on Brisbane at the plus here but team selection is a worry so no play.

These two have a tendency to play over matches with 4 of the last 5 totalling 50. There is a lean the over but not enough for a bet.

COVER FORM: Melbourne 8-2 (WLWWL), Brisbane 6-4 (LWWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 6-4 (OUOOU), Brisbane 4-6 (UUUOO)

South Sydney will go into their clash with Canberra on Friday night as 9.5 to 10 point favourites after David Furner dropped Josh Dugan and Blake Ferguson for breaking an alcohol ban. The Raiders have won 8 of 12 against the Bunnies but Souths have claimed the last two by margins of 29 and 2. The Bunnies are 19-10 ATS at home since 2010 and 20-14 ATS at night while the Raiders are 11-19 ATS on the road and 7-10 ATS when getting between 6.5 and 12 points. The Bunnies should win this in a canter in their current form. Play them for 1.5 units.

The Raiders are 22-12 under at night over the last three seasons and Souths are showing renewed enthusiasm in defence. Bet 1 unit the under if the line is 36 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Souths 5-5 (WLWWW), Canberra 4-6 (WLLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Souths 4-6 (UOUOU), Canberra 5-5 (OUOUO)

Newcastle will start 4.5-point favourites in their clash with the Gold Coast on Saturday evening.  The Knights are 5-3 all-time against the Titans and 3-1 all-time in Newcastle. The Knights have won 4 of 5 as a favourite while the Titans are 1-5 ATS off a bye since 2010. The Knights are struggling for confidence but have too much talent for the Titans. Bet the minus for 1 unit.

Total is too hard to figure here. These two, weirdly, have tallied 40-plus in 7 of 8 with 2 of the last 3 reaching 70 but both are huge under teams. Lean on under but not playing.

COVER FORM: Newcastle 4-6 (WLWLL), Gold Coast 4-6 (LWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Newcastle 3-7 (UUOUO), Gold Coast 2-8 (UOUUU)

St George Illawarra will run out 6 to 6.5 point favourites in their clash with Parramatta. The Eels are an abhorrent team, winning only 8 of 40 and losing 9 of their last 10 road games. The Dragons have won 6 of 7 against the Eels and  5 of 6 at WIN Stadium. The Dragons are 20-12 ATS at home since 2010 while the Eels are 22-36 ATS over the same time overall. The Dragons are down on confidence but should still be too strong for an ordinary Eels team. Play 1 unit on the minus.

This should be an under game but the Eels are porous in defence. Off a bye, the Eels may stiffen up but I can't bet on it. 

COVER FORM: Dragons 4-7 (WLLLL), Parramatta 3-7 (LLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Dragons 3-8 (UOUUU), Parramatta 8-2 (UOOOO)

Penrith will get 6.5 to 7 points at home against heavyweights Manly. Manly have won 8 of 11 against the Panthers including 4 of 6 at Centrebet Stadium. No real situations here other than the Panthers being hopeless at home, losing 8 of 9 at Centrebet Stadium. No play, small lean the plus.

There looks to be a 1 unit under play here. These two have tallied under 30 in 4 of the last 6 while Manly are 7-4 under as a home underdog since 2010. If the line is 36 or bigger, play the under.

COVER FORM: Penrith 4-7 (LLLWW), Manly 6-5 (LWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Penrith 6-5 (UOOUO), Manly 6-5 (OUUOU)

In a rather intriguing match-up, the Wests Tigers are 3.5-point favourites against North Queensland. The Tigers have won 11 of 14 against the Cowboys including four straight by an average of 14.25. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS on the road this year and the Tigers have lost 3 of 4 at Campbelltown but I just can’t get over North Queensland's poor record against the Tigers or their lack of daytime football. No bet.

There is a 1 unit under bet here. The Tigers are 21-11 under at home and the Cowboys are 16-10 under as a road underdog, both since 2010. Play under if the total is 36.5 or better.

COVER FORM: Tigers 4-6 (WWLLW), Cowboys 6-5 (WLWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Tigers 5-5 (UUOUO), Cowboys 6-5 (OUUOO)

The Sydney Roosters are 3.5-point home underdogs against Canterbury, a match-up that has seen the two teams split the last 16 encounters. No situations present themselves. Canterbury's pack should just be a little too strong but no confidence for any wager.

The Bulldogs are 27-15 under at night since 2010 while the Roosters are 38-25 under. Bet 1 unit under if the line is 34.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Roosters 7-4 (LWWWL), Canterbury 7-4 (WLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Roosters 5-6 (OOUOU), Canterbury 4-7 (UUOUU)
Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.

Tips:Melbourne, South Sydney, Newcastle, St George Illawarra, Manly, Wests Tigers, Canterbury

1.5 units on South Sydney -9.5 at Centrebet at $1.90
1 unit on Under (Sou-Can) if the line is 36 or bigger
1 unit on Newcastle -4.5 at Luxbet at $1.91
1 unit on St George Illawarra -5.5 at Sportsbet at $1.90
1 unit on Under (Pen-Man) if the line is 36 or bigger
1 unit on Under (Tig-Cow) if the line is 36.5 or bigger
1 unit on Under (Roo-Bul) if the line is 34.5 or bigger

Overall:134.5 units bet for 145.42 units returned for a POT of 8.12%
Line: 58 units bet for 63.57 units returned for a POT of 9.60%
76.5 units bet for 81.85 units returned for a POT of 6.99%


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