The Early Line: Round 13

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on June 3, 2011

St George-Illawarra have opened up 12 point favourites against Parramatta. It is not enough.

The last two times the Dragons have tackled the Eels, the Dragons have saluted 30-0 with the Dragons winning 6 of their last 7 clashes against the Eels, holding the Eels scoreless in 3 of their last 5.

Even without Matt Cooper and Brett Morris, the Dragons should slice the Eels defence to shreds.

Bet 2 units on St George-Illawarra spotting 12 points.

The under should also be a play here if the line is 38 or bigger. The Dragons are 8-3 under and these two have totalled 37 or less in 11 of their last 12. Bet 2 units on the under.

COVER FORM: Parramatta 4-7 (WLLWW), St George-Illawarra 8-3 (LWWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Parramatta 6-5 (OUOOU), St George-Illawarra 3-8 (UUUUO)

Cronulla have opened 6.5 point home underdogs against Brisbane.

The Broncos have won 10 of 13 against the Sharks but have lost 3 of 4 at Shark Park.

Cronulla have shown plenty of fight lately but the loss of Luke Douglas will hurt. A slight lean the plus but not bet in Darren Lockyer’s last regular season club match in Sydney.

A small 1.5 unit play on the under in this match. Scores at Shark Park have averaged 30.5 this year and 10 of the last 13 between these two have totalled 40 or less. Bet the under if the line is 38 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Cronulla 5-6 (LLWLW), Brisbane 6-5 (WWLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cronulla 7-4 (OOUOU), Brisbane 4-7 (OUOUO)

Gold Coast are somehow 2.5 point favourites against Penrith.

The Titans have covered only 3 of 11 this year and are on the no bet list until they find some semblance of form while the Panthers, who are starting to play some good football, have lost both matches outside of Sydney this year.

No bet.

These two have totalled at least 46 in all four matches and on spec, a 1 unit play on the over if the total is 43.5 or less is a play.

COVER FORM:Gold Coast 3-8 (LWLLL), Penrith 7-4 (WLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Gold Coast 5-6 (OUOUU), Penrith 5-6 (UOOUU)

Canterbury are 3.5 point home underdogs against Manly with the Dogs missing former Manly halfback Trent Hodkinson thanks to a suspension.

Manly were impressive last week but Canterbury have plenty of upside and these two have exchanged the last five.

No side bet though we will be playing another under with the Dogs 7-4 under this year and the Eagles 8-3. These two tend to total around the 40 mark so only a 1 unit play if the line is 40.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM:Canterbury 7-4 (WLWLW), Manly 7-4 (LLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 4-7 (OUUUU), Manly 3-8 (UUUUO)

New Zealand are 1.5 point road favourites against the Sydney Roosters.

The Warriors are the best play of the weekend. The Roosters have won only 1 of 10 against the Warriors while failing to break 13 points in their last seven clashes this year. The Warriors, meanwhile, have won 7 of 8 including three straight in Australia.

The Warriors should be laying 4 points at the very least. It is hard to see the Roosters finding form against this tough-as-nails New Zealand team who can lean on either their attack or defence.

Bet 3 units on New Zealand spotting 1.5 points.

The under is also a play. Both are huge under teams and though the Roosters cannot score at present, they can defend stoutly. Bet 2.5 units on the under if the line is 38 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Sydney Roosters 4-7 (LLLWL), New Zealand 6-5 (WWWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Sydney Roosters 2-9 (OUUUU), New Zealand 3-8 (UOOUU)

Canberra have won two on the trot and have opened up 3.5 point favourites against top-four team and the punters pals North Queensland, who are 9-2 against the line this year.

The Cowboys have won 5 of 7 against the Raiders but Canberra have won the last two at Bruce. This is a trap game for mine though I do lean towards the Cows.

No total play either.

COVER FORM:Canberra 3-8 (LLLWW), North Queensland 9-2 (WWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 6-5 (UOUUU), North Queensland 6-5 (OUUOU)

South Sydney are 8 point home underdogs against the Melbourne Storm.

My inclination is to play the Storm here but Melbourne are 2-1 on the road this year including a close win against a star-depleted Broncos.

I can’t play Souths though after their disgraceful effort on Monday night.

No bet.

These two have played 5 of 7 totalling under 36 with both teams going under the total in their last two. Bet 1.5 units on the under if the line is 40 or bigger.

COVER FORM:South Sydney 5-6 (LWWWL), Melbourne 7-4 (LWWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: South Sydney 7-4 (OOOUU), Melbourne 5-6 (UOOUU)

COVER FORM:Wests Tigers 4-7 (LWLLL), Newcastle 4-7 (WLLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Wests Tigers 5-6(OOOUO), Newcastle (4-7 (UOUUU)

Wests Tigers are spotting 8 points to Newcastle on Monday night.

The Tigers have offered very little since their round nine bye, losing to Souths and the Dragons and sneaking home in horrible fashion against Penrith.

Tim Sheens’ men have won their last three against the Knights and Newcastle have failed to make the line in their last four but the line seems too big. We will speculate on the Knights with the points in this one. Play 1 unit on Newcastle with 8 points.

Four of the last five between these two have totalled 47-plus but no total play as both teams are going through key changes in the backline.

2 units on St George-Illawarra -12 at Centrebet at $1.91
2 units on Under (Eels-Dragons) if the line is 38 or bigger
1.5 units on Under (Sharks-Broncos) if the line is 38 or bigger
1 unit Over (Titans-Panthers) if the line is 43.5 or smaller
1 unit Under (Bulldogs-Manly) if the line is 40.5 or bigger
3 units on New Zealand -1.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
2.5 units on Under (Roosters-Warriors) if line is 38 or bigger
1.5 units on Under (Souths-Storm) if line is 40 or bigger
1 unit on Newcastle +8 at Centrebet at $1.91

Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-
1                   3         1.5                 0.95                            -0.45
2                   6          6                   0.92                            -5.08
3                   7         11                  7.38                            -3.62
4                   8         13                 16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                  13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                 11.66                           -3.34    
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24   
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                            +3.14
10                 7         14                 15.29                           +1.29
11                 5          11                 4.78                             -6.22
12                9         18                 15.38                           -2.62

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                     84       145               143                               -2.00


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