The Early Line: Round 15

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on June 16, 2011

Brisbane host St George-Illawarra on Friday night in an enthralling top-of-the-table clash. Betting has opened with the Broncos, a little surprisingly, 1.5 point favourites.

Both teams have plenty of Origin players backing up with the Broncos likely to play five and the Dragons six, pending fitness tests.

Wayne Bennett has remarkably lost 11 of the last 12 match-ups between the two teams he has coached since 1988. And though the Dragons have failed to cover in three of their last four, they are the benchmark this year and as an underdog, they have to be backed.

Bet 1.5 units on the Dragons with 1.5 points.

These two have a history of low scorers with 10 of their last 12 totalling 38 or less. Play 2 units on the under if the total is 37 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Brisbane 8-5 (LLLWW), Dragons 8-5 (WLWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 6-7 (OUOOO), Dragons 4-9 (UUOUO)

South Sydney have opened 2.5 point favourites in their clash with Gold Coast on Friday night. 

This looks like a horrible match. Gold Coast have won the last three and I have a lean to the plus but no bet.

Both these teams have gone under in three of their last four and with points seemingly hard to come by for both teams, I will recommend a small under play for 1 unit if the total is 40.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: South Sydney 5-7 (WWWLL), Gold Coast 4-9 (LLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: South Sydney 7-5 (OOUUU), Gold Coast 6-7 (OUUUO)

Penrith are the hot betting team at the moment having covered four straight and are getting 4.5 points when they travel to Newcastle on Saturday night.

Newcastle have won six of nine against Penrith and won 42-8 when they met in round one but the Panthers have hit a good patch of form that included a win over Brisbane.

Bet 2 units on Penrith with 4.5 points.

No total play.

COVER FORM: Newcastle 5-7 (LLLLW), Penrith 8-4 (LWWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Newcastle 4-8 (OUUUU), Penrith 5-7 (OOUUU)

North Queensland host New Zealand and have opened 4.5 to 5,5 point favourites. They are the bet of the week.

The Cowboys have been the betting team this year, going 10-3 against the line.  The Warriors have hit a flat spot where they have failed to make the line in three straight.

The Cowboys have won 9 of their last 13 against the Warriors and six straight in Townsville dating back to 2002 (though this is their first match at Dairy Farmers since 2008). They have won six straight at home this year and they are playing good football.

Bet 2.5 units on the Cowboys -4.5.

No total though a lean towards the under if 42 or better.

COVER FORM: North Queensland 10-3 (LWWWL), Warriors 6-7 (WWLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: North Queensland 7-6 (UOUOU), Warriors 4-9 (OUUUO)

Despite the axing of Jamal Idris, Canterbury have opened up 6 to 6.5 point favourites against Cronulla.

No bet. This seems like a trap game. Canterbury should win and win well but they are not playing well enough to lay points and with Ben Roberts in the team, I’d rather just watch.

COVER FORM: Canterbury 7-5 (LWLWL), Cronulla 5-7 (LWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 5-7 (UUUUO), Cronulla 8-4 (OUOUO)

The Wests Tigers have opened 2.5 to 3.5 point favourites in their salivating match with the Melbourne Storm on Sunday afternoon.

These two have split the last six but the Tigers have won six of the seven played at Leichardt including a 12-point win last season and a 10-point win in 2009.

The Tigers may have turned their season around against the Warriors but with the Storm 9-4 against the line this year, I don’t think it is a good idea to get involved.

There is a good total play though. Both are under teams with the Storm going under in four straight and with five of the last six totalling 42 or less between these two, I am going under for 2 units if the line is 40 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Wests Tigers 5-8 (LLLLW), Melbourne 9-4 (WLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Wests Tigers 6-7 (OUOUO), Melbourne 5-8 (OUUUU)

Manly are the hot team in the NRL and have opened up 8.5-9.5 point favourites in their Monday night clash with Parramatta, who have covered in their last three.

I have a leaning to the points but no bet or total.

COVER FORM: Manly 9-4 (WWWWW), Parramatta 5-7 (LLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 4-9 (UUOOU), Parramatta 6-6 (UOOUU)

1.5 units on St George-Illawarra +1.5 at Centrebet at $1.92
2 units on Under (Dragons-Broncos) if line is 37 or bigger
1 unit on Under (Rabbitohs-Titans) if line is 40.5 or bigger
2 units on Penrith +5.5 at Luxbet at $1.92
2.5 units on North Queensland -4.5 at Centrebet at $1.92
2 units Under (Tigers-Storm) if line is 40 or bigger

Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-
1                   3         1.5                 0.95                            -0.45
2                   6          6                   0.92                            -5.08
3                   7         11                  7.38                            -3.62
4                   8         13                 16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                  13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                 11.66                           -3.34    
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24   
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                            +3.14
10                 7         14                 15.29                           +1.29
11                 5          11                 4.78                             -6.22
12                 9         18                 15.38                           -2.62
13                 7         14.5              13.38                           -1.12
14                 6         10.5              15.32                           +4.82

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                     97       170              171.70                         +1.70


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