The Early Line: Round 17

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on June 27, 2012

Brisbane are favoured by 6 points in their Friday night clash with Cronulla. Both sides are severely hit by Origin with Hodges, Hannant, Thaiday, Civoniceva, Parker, Gillett and Te'o out for the Broncos and Carney and Gallen for the Sharks. The Broncos have won 12 of 15 against the Sharks including five straight since 2009. The Sharks haven't won at Suncorp since 2004, losing by an average of 17.71 since. The Broncos are 21-12 ATS at home since 2010 while the Sharks are 9-15 ATS as a road dog over that time. The numbers suggest Brisbane but I like the points. No play.

The Sharks are 20-11 over on the road but no total.

COVER FORM:Brisbane 9-6 (LWWLW), Cronulla 10-4 (WLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 8-7 (OOOUO), Cronulla 6-8 (UUOOO)

Betting in the Parramatta-Newcastle game has the line pick 'em to the Eels getting 1.5 points. The Knights have won 7 of 11 against the Eels and three straight, keeping Parramatta to one try in each of those three. The Eels have won 3 of 4 at Parramatta Stadium though. The Knights are 3-11 ATS when favoured by under a converted try since 2010 and the Eels are 10-6 ATS as a home underdog. I like the Knights but those numbers have thrown me off. No bet.

None of the last three between these two have tallied 20 though the last four at Parramatta Stadium have surpassed 44. The Knights are 19-11 under on the road since 2010 but have been in over mode of late. No play.

COVER FORM:Parramatta 6-8 (WWWLW), Newcastle 5-9 (LLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Parramatta 9-5 (OUOUU). Newcastle 6-8 (OUOOO)

South Sydney are favoured by 8.5 to 9.5 points in their clash with Penrith. These two have split the last 10 but the Bunnies have watched all four at ANZ by an average of 15 points. Souths have won 11 of the past 15 at ANZ while the Panthers have won only 3 of 10 at the venue.  The Bunnies are 21-11 ATS at home and can be bet with confidence this week, laying the 8.5 for 2 units.

These two traditionally score a ton of points, with 7 of the last 8 tallying 48. Souths are 15-9 over in the day and Penrith are 12-7 over in the afternoon. Bet 1.5 units on the over if the line is lower than 46.

COVER FORM:South Sydney 7-7 (WWLWL), Penrith 5-10 (WWLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: South Sydney 7-7 (UOOUO), Penrith 8-7 (OUOOU)

New Zealand are favoured by 13.5 to 14.5 points in their clash with rep duty-ravaged North Queensland. The Cowboys have won 10 of 15 against the Warriors but will be without Thurston, Scott, Bowen, Tate and Tamou. The Warriors have won 3 of the last 4 at home against the Cows but have not recorded a victory of 14 points since 2007. The lean is the plus but this is way too hard to figure, particularly with these teams rarely playing in the day.

No total.

COVER FORM: New Zealand 5-9 (LLLWL), North Qld 8-7 (LLLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: New Zealand 11-3 (OOUOO), North Qld 9-6 (OOOUO)

Canberra are getting 4.5 points at home against St George Illawarra. The biggest mock in rugby league is the Raiders' dominance over the Dragons over the last decade – the Dragons have won just 2 of 16 against the Raiders since 2002 despite having won 27 more premiership games since 2002, not to mention a premiership. That includes nine straight at Canberra Stadium with the likes of Ben Hornby and Dean Young having never won at Canberra Stadium. With the Dragons having lost six straight on the road this year, this looks like a great bet Canberra, even with their horrible form and heavy injury toll. Bet the Raiders for 2 units.

There is a nice play the under here too with the Dragons 11-4 under this year and 26-7 under on the road since 2010. Play it for 2 units if the line is 34.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM:Canberra 5-9 (LLLWL), Dragons 4-11 (LLLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 9-5 (OOOOO), Dragons 4-11 (UUUOU)
Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.

Tips:Brisbane, Newcastle, South Sydney, New Zealand, Canberra

2 units on South Sydney -8.5 at Centrebet at $1.91
1.5 units on Over (Sou-Pen) if the line is 46 or smaller
2 units on Canberra +4.5 at TAB Sportsbet at $1.85
2 units on Under (Can-Dra) if the line is 34.5 or bigger

Overall:185.5 units bet for 184.57 units returned for a POT of -0.01%
Line: 75.5 units bet for 81.8 units returned for a POT of 8.34%
Total:110 units bet for 102.77 units returned for a POT of -6.57%



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