The Early Line: Round 22

Filed in The Early Line by on August 2, 2012

The Sydney Roosters are getting 4.5 to 5.5 points against St George Illawarra and are capable of causing an upset in this. The Roosters have lost five straight at home but the Dragons have failed in their last eight road clashes. The Roosters have won just 3 of 15 against the Dragons, including four straight at the SFS, but the last clash went right down to the wire. The Dragons have been the team to bet against all year and they are again in this case. Take the Roosters for 1 unit.

The Dragons are 26-9 under on the road since 2010. On that basis, we will play the under for 2 units if the line is 37.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Roosters 10-9 (LWWLL), Dragons 6-13 (LLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Roosters 11-8 (OUOUO), Dragons 7-12 (UOUOO)

Melbourne are favoured by 10 to 10.5 points at home against a Penrith team that has covered three straight. Melbourne have won 10 straight against the Panthers dating back to 2006 and have scored more than 10 points just once in their last seven encounters with Craig Bellamy's men, but the average margin in Melbourne over that time has been just 8.2. The Storm have lost five straight and you just cannot lay double figures about a team in such a slump. A lean the plus but no play.

No total here.

COVER FORM: Melbourne 12-7 (LLLLL), Penrith 8-11 (LLWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 10-9 (UOUOO), Penrith 11-8 (UOOUO)

Newcastle will get 4 to 5.5 points at home against competition frontrunners Canterbury. Both teams are in good nick with the Bulldogs riding a nine-game win streak and the Knights winning five of six. The Bulldogs are 6-4 against sides that are currently in the top eight while the Knights are a much poorer 3-5. The Knights are some hope here but it would be silly to bet against the Bulldogs.

Canterbury are 5-0 over as a road favourite this year. That is worth a spec if the line is 42.5 or smaller.

COVER FORM: Newcastle 9-10 (WLWWW), Canterbury 15-4 (WWWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Newcastle 7-12 (UOUUU), Canterbury 10-9 (UOOUO)

In arguably the game of the round, North Queensland enter this mouth-watering clash with Manly as to 2 to 2.5 faves. Manly have won 5 of 7 between the two but the Cows have claimed 4 of 5 in Townsville. Brett Stewart is back for Manly, a huge in. The Cowboys have won five straight at home but the Eagles are 3-0 interstate. I have a liking for Manly here but the Cows are 12-6 ATS as a fave of under a converted try since 2010 and 14-7 ATS as a home fave. No bet.

Manly are 5-1 under as an interstate dog since 2010 but no play.

COVER FORM: Cowboys 10-9 (WLWWL), Manly 9-10 (WWLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cowboys 12-7 (OOUOO), Manly 11-8 (OOUUO)

New Zealand are favoured by 5.5 to 6 points in their clash with Cronulla. The Warriors have won 6 of 10 against the Sharks and 7 of 8 in Auckland. The Warriors have claimed just 1 of 3 at home though while the Sharks have won both interstate matches this season. There is a small lean the plus here for 0.5 units with Paul Gallen and Todd Carney likely to play.

The Warriors are 14-5 over this year while the Sharks are 21-12 over on the road since 2010. Bet the over for 1.5 units if the line is 44.5 or lower.

COVER FORM: Warriors 9-10 (WWWLW), Cronulla 11-8 (WLLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Warriors 14-5 (OOUUO), Cronulla 7-12 (UUUUO)

Canberra get 2.5 points at home in their clash with Brisbane. I can't say I am real keen on Brisbane here so this is more a wager against the Raiders at home, who are 11-23 ATS in Canberra since 2010 and 8-21 ATS during the day. Bet Brisbane for 1 unit.

A slight lean the over here but no wager.

COVER FORM: Canberra 8-11 (WWLWL), Brisbane 9-10 (WLLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 12-7 (OOOUU), Brisbane 9-10 (OUUUO)

Gold Coast are getting 2.5 to 3.5 points at home against South Sydney at Skilled. The Titans hold a 4-3 all-time edge over Souths and have won both matches played between the two teams on the Gold Coast. There is a lean Souths but the Titans are a good side. Can't bet this one.

There is no total here. The Bunnies are an over team away and in the day while the Titans are an under team at as a home underdog.  

COVER FORM: Gold Coast 12-7 (WLWWW), Souths 11-8 (WWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Gold Coast 8-11 (UOOUO), Souths 11-8 (OOOOU)

The Wests Tigers are favoured by 4 points in their clash with Parramatta at Campbelltown on Monday. The Tigers have won 5 of 7 against Parramatta but have been the worst betting side in the NRL this year. No bet.

Parramatta are 6-3 over as a road dog this year while the Tigers are 5-1 over as a home fave. There looks to be plenty of points in this one. Bet over for 1.5 units if the total is 46 or lower.

COVER FORM: Wests Tigers 6-13 (LLLLL), Parramatta 9-10 (LWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Wests Tigers 12-7 (OOOOU), Parramatta 12-7 (UOOUO)
Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips:Sydney Roosters, Melbourne, Canterbury, North Queensland, New Zealand, Brisbane

1 unit on Sydney Roosters +5.5 at Luxbet at $1.90
2 units on Under (Roo-Dra) if the line is 37.5 or bigger
1 unit on Over (New-Bul) if the line is 42.5 or smaller
0.5 units on Cronulla +6 at Luxbet at $1.92
1.5 units on Over (War-Cro) if the line is 44.5 or smaller
1 unit on Brisbane -2.5 at Luxbet at $1.94
1 unit on Over (Tig-Par) if the line is 46 or smaller

Overall:232.5 units bet for 238.81 units returned for a POT of 2.71%
Line:102.5 units bet for 112.18 units returned for a POT of 9.44%
Total: 130 units bet for 126.63 units returned for a POT of -2.59%


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