The Early Line: Round 23

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on August 8, 2012

Betting has the Souths-Manly game as pick 'em to the Bunnies as 1.5-point favourites. Wonderful clash and the people of the Central Coast should lap it up. Souths have won just 6 of 18 against Manly since the Eagles returned in 2003 while Manly's win record with Brett Stewart is nearly 22 points higher than when he is out. If this was at ANZ I'd be all over the Bunnies but at the Central Coast – where Souths are 4-5-1 all-time and Manly are 7-2 at the venue – I fancy the Eagles in this. Take them with the 1.5 points at Sportsbet for $1.90 for 1 unit.

No total play is of interest.

COVER FORM: Souths 12-8 (WLWWW), Manly 10-10 (WLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Souths 11-9  (OOOUU), Manly 11-9 (OUUOU)

Melbourne are favoured by 8 to 8.5 points in their clash with the Gold Coast. The Storm hit form last week with a big win over Penrith while the Titans have been solid, winning 7 of 11. The Storm have lost 3 of 4 at home while the Titans have gone 4-2 in their last six road games. The Titans are 15-10 interstate since 2010 while the Storm have a raft of long-term numbers in their favour. The Storm did only roll the Panthers last week. The plus is worthy of a 1 unit play.

No total here.

COVER FORM: Melbourne 13-7 (LLLLW), Gold Coast 12-8 (LWWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Melbourne 11-9 (OUOOO), Gold Coast 8-12 (OOUOU)

What a stinker of a game! Parramatta get 1.5 to 2.5 points against the Sydney Roosters in the battle of two of the bottom three teams. The Eels are 11-7 as a home underdog since 2010 while the Roosters are 2-5 ATS over the same period. The Roosters have won 10 of the last 16 played between the two teams. There is a 0.5-unit play Parramatta as a home dog but gee, I can't get excited about it.

A small lean the over but no play.

COVER FORM: Parramatta 9-11 (WLWWL), Roosters 11-9 (WWLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Parramatta 13-7 (OOUOO), Roosters 11-9 (UOUOU)

The two worst betting teams go head-to-head on Saturday night with the Tigers and Dragons a combined 13-27 ATS in 2012. The Tigersare favoured by 3.5 to 4 points. The Dragons have had the best of this match-up in recent times, winning 5 of the last 7 including a 36-12 win in round three this year. This is the battle of the very movable defence against the totally immovable Dragons attack. Absolutely no play.

The Tigers have gone 6-1 over as a home favourite this year but the Dragons are 27-9 under on the road since 2010. I hate recommending the under with the Tigers' defence so porous but I love the Dragons under on the road. Play it for 1 unit but make the sure the line is at least 42.

COVER FORM: Tigers 7-13 (LLLLW), Dragons 6-14 (LWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Tigers 13-7 (OOOUO), Dragons 7-13 (OUOOU)

North Queensland are spotting New Zealand 8 to 8.5 points in their clash in Townsville. The Warriors have won 6 of the last 11 but the Cowboys have won 7 straight between the two at Dairy Farmers, by an average of 18.14 points. The Cows are 14-8 ATS as a home fave since 2010 while the Warriors are 16-11 ATS as a road dog since 2010. A lean the Cowboys but the line is a touch big for me.

Sticking with the over in Warriors matches is smart. Bet it for 1 unit if the line is 44.5 or bigger.

COVER FORM: Cowboys 10-10 (LWWLL), Warriors 9-11 (WWLWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Cowboys 12-8 (OUOOU), Warriors 15-5 (OUUOO)

Penrith will get 1.5 to 2.5 points at home against the horribly inconsistent Canberra. The Panthers have won 5 of 7 against the Raiders but more importantly, Canberra are 6-19 ATS as a favourite and 9-21 ATS in the day. I can't get too excited about Penrith but I'll be on for 1.5 units with the 2.5 points.

There is a slight lean the under but no total.

COVER FORM: Penrith 8-12 (LWWWL), Canberra 9-11 (WLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Penrith 12-8 (OOUOO), Canberra 12-8 (OOUUU)

Canterbury have been installed as 6.5 to 8.5 point favourites against the fading Brisbane. The Bulldogs are 12-6 ATS as a fave between 6.5 and 12 points since 2010 and have covered 80 per cent of matches this year while the Broncos are 1-5 in their last six road games and 4-8 in their last 12. The Bulldogs are going to hammer the Broncos. Get on for 2 units.

No total here.

COVER FORM: Canterbury 16-4 (WWWWW), Brisbane 9-11 (LLLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 10-10 (OOUOU), Brisbane 9-11 (UOUUU)

Betting in the Newcastle-Cronulla game is pick'em with the Knights $1.80 and Sharks $2.00. The Knights are 4-11 ATS as a favourite of under 6 points since 2010 while the Sharks are 5-3 ATS as a road underdog this year. The Knights have won 8 of 11 against the Sharks . A little lean Cronulla here but no wager.

No total, leaning under.

COVER FORM: Newcastle 9-11 (LWWWL), Cronulla 12-8 (LLLLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Newcastle 7-13 (OUUUU), Cronulla 8-12 (UUUOO)

*Remember, a 2 unit under bet at any line stands for games in the wet.
Tips:Manly, Melbourne, Parramatta, Wests Tigers, North Queensland, Penrith, Canterbury, Cronulla

1 unit on Manly +1.5 at Sportsbet at $1.90
1 unit on Gold Coast +8.5 at Centrebet at $1.90
0.5 units on Parramatta +2.5 at Sportingbet at $1.90
1 unit on Under (Tig-Dra) if the line is 42 or bigger
1 unit on Over (Cow-War) if the line is 44.5 or smaller
1.5 units on Penrith +2.5 at Centrebet at $1.90
2 units on Canterbury -6.5 at Sportsbet at $1.90

Overall:240.5 units bet for 250.28 units returned for a POT of 4.07%
Line: 105 units bet for 115.05 units returned for a POT of 9.57%
Total:135.5 units bet for 135.23 units returned for a POT of -0.02%



Comments (1)

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  1. SemiiPro says:

    Nick, may I say that achieving a POT of 9.57% in this crazy comp is an outstanding effort, particularly with the number of teams turning in subpar performances each week. However, I cannot abide by you tipping ANY team with the 1.5 start. It is easily the worst line to bet on in sports. I don’t have the exact stats, but I estimate that a team wins on handicap by utilising the +1.5 once in every thousand times a team has the +1.5. And you pay at least 10 cents for the privilege. Golden rule in NRL is never take the +1.5. If you like a team that has been handicapped +1.5, back them straight out.

    Conversely, the -1.5 is the best bet in NRL if you fancy the -1.5 team. You get an extra 10-15 cents and you only have to worry about the unlikely draw or 1 point win.

    PS in case I’m not clear, I realize there are a number of draws and 1 point wins in a season. But rarely in these instances is the line -/+ 1.5.