The Early Line: Round 25

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on August 24, 2011

In a monster clash, Manly have opened 2.5 to 3.5 point favourites against Melbourne.

I remain unconvinced by the Sea Eagles. Their attitude has been patchy over the last few weeks and they were very lucky to get away with the win and cover against Canterbury following another uninspiring win against Parramatta. Melbourne, meanwhile, have won 12 straight and are as determined as any team I have ever seen. More impressively, the Storm have won nine straight matches on the road. The Storm have won two of three at Brookvale Oval and with Cooper Cronk expected to be a late inclusion, they should grind out a nice win. Bet 2 units on the Storm with 3.5.

There is a big 3 unit under play here if the line is 35.5 or bigger. Both teams are under teams and only one of their last six against each other have totalled more than 36.  

COVER FORM:Manly 13-9 (LLWLW), Melbourne 16-6 (WLWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Manly 10-12 (UUOOO), Melbourne 8-14 (UOUOU)

Bookies have Parramatta and the Sydney Roosters at pick ‘em in a totally uninteresting Friday night match.

The Roosters have won three of their last four and have been a more consistent cover team but the Eels probably have more upside. No side bet.

No total play is of any interest here either.

COVER FORM:Parramatta 10-12 (LWLWL), Roosters 11-11 (WWLWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Parramatta 12-10 (UOOOO), Roosters 7-15 (UOOUO)

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Canterbury’sseason is now over but the Bulldogs have opened 1.5 to 2 point favourites against Newcastle.

The Bulldogs have been playing reasonably well over the last few weeks but I doubt they will be particularly motivated this week. Newcastle, conversely, can make a significant move to securing a top eight position with a win. The Knights have won 7 of their last 10 against Canterbury and have won their last six against teams outside the eight and should be too strong with it all on the line. Bet 2 units on Newcastle +2.

No total play. It looks an under game but Canterbury could be very loose.

COVER FORM:Canterbury 11-11 (WLWWL), Newcastle 10-12 (WWWLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canterbury 9-13 (UOUUO), Newcastle 7-15 (UOOUU)

North Queensland are 16.5 to 17.5 point favourites in their clash with Cronulla on Saturday night.

The Cowboys, with a top four berth on the line, should destroy the Sharks. The Cowboys have won three of their last four against the Sharks and Cronulla have failed to cover in their last seven. But no bet as the line is just a little big for me.

There is a total play though. Both teams are 13-9 over, Cronulla have allowed an average of 40 points in their last three road games and the last three games at North Queensland totalled 48 or more. Bet 2 units on the over if the line is 44.5 or smaller.

COVER FORM:North Qld 15-7 (WWLLW), Cronulla 9-13 (LLLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: North Qld 13-9 (OOUOO), Cronulla 13-9 (UOUUO)

Canberra are laying 3.5 to 4 points against Penrith on Saturday night.

I hate the fact I am about to tip the Raiders here. They were gutless against the Titans while the injury ravaged Panthers continue to put in. But I expect the Raiders to dig deep for one last effort to farewell Alan Tongue, who played his first home game and scored his first try against the Panthers. Tongue has typically gone well against Penrith (5 career tries, 12 career wins) and the Raiders have won five of their last six against Penrith at Canberra Stadium. Bet 1 unit on Canberra giving 3.5 points.

No total.

COVER FORM:Canberra 6-16 (WLLLL), Penrith 12-10 (WLLLL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Canberra 13-9 (OUOOOO), Penrith 9-13 (UOUOU)

St George-Illawarra go into their clash with New Zealand 5.5 point favourites.

Smart punters will be on the Warriors, who have been the darlings of punters again in recent times, covering their last seven. They have been extremely impressive of late and getting points against an out-of-form Dragons outfit with a top four spot on the line, they look a certain play. They have won only 4 of 17 all-time against St George-Illawarra but I expect Shaun Johnson and James Maloney to control this match. Bet 2 units on the Warriors with 5.5 start.

There is also an under play as well with both teams 15-7 under this season. Five of their last seven have tallied 40 or less and there is a lot on the line here. Bet 1.5 units on the under if the total is 36 or bigger.

COVER FORM:St George-Ill. 11-11 (LLLLW), New Zealand 14-8 (WWWWW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: St George-Ill. 7-15 (OOUUU), New Zealand 7-15 (OUOUU)

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Brisbane are laying 4.5 points against South Sydney on Sunday afternoon.

Souths need to win this so again I am going against them. They have won five games on the trot only twice since 1989 and have beaten Brisbane only three times in that period. They did roll the Broncos last start but Brisbane look so focussed and have been in impressive form. Bet 1 unit on Brisbane -4.5.

No total play.

COVER FORM:Brisbane 14-8 (LWLWW), Souths 8-14 (LWWWL)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Brisbane 10-12 (UOOOU), Souths 13-9 (OOOOO)

The Wests Tigers have opened up the biggest favourites of the season against the Gold Coast, bookies putting up 18.5 to 19.5 points.

I fancy it will only get bigger but there have been some big double figure upsets this year. The Titans don’t have a full team and will likely be towelled up with a huge Tigers win expected but I won’t be laying the big start.

No total either.

COVER FORM:Wests Tigers 10-12 (LWWWW), Gold Coast 6-16 (LLWLW)
OVER-UNDER FORM: Wests Tigers 9-13 (UUUOO), Gold Coast 12-12 (OOUOO)

Tipping:Melbourne, Sydney Roosters, Newcastle, North Queensland, Canberra, New Zealand, Brisbane, Wests Tigers

2 units on Melbourne +3.5 at Centrebet at $1.90
3 units on Under (Eagles-Storm) if line is 35.5 or bigger
2 units on Newcastle +2 at Sportsbet at $1.91
2 units on Over (Cowboys-Sharks) if line is 44.5 or smaller
1 unit on Canberra -3.5 at Centrebet at $1.92
2 units on New Zealand +5.5 at Luxbet at $1.92
1.5 units on Under (Dragons-Warriors) if line is 36 or bigger
1 unit on Brisbane -4.5 at Luxbet at $1.92
Remember, a standing 2 unit under bet exists on any game when the rains have come

Round    Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-
1                   3         1.5                 0.95                            -0.45
2                   6          6                   0.92                            -5.08
3                   7         11                  7.38                            -3.62
4                   8         13                 16.51                           +3.51
5                  10       16                  13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5              19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                 11.66                           -3.34    
8                   9         18.5              27.74                           +9.24   
9                   4         6.5                 9.64                            +3.14
10                 7         14                 15.29                           +1.29
11                 5          11                 4.78                             -6.22
12                 9         18                 15.38                           -2.62
13                 7         14.5              13.38                           -1.12
14                 6         10.5              15.32                           +4.82
15                 6         11                 18.19                           +7.19
16                 9         16.5              23.89                           +7.39
17                 7         13                 20.13                           +7.13
18                10        18.5              12.43                            -6.07
19                11        20.5              13.40                            -7.10
20                 9         16                 22.94                           +6.94
21                 7         13.5              3.84                             -9.66
22                10        15                 12.27                           -2.73    
23                 8         12.5              16.23                          +3.73
24                 9         17                 17.64                          +0.64

Total      Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                183         323.5            332.76                   +9.26


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