The Early Line: Round 9

Filed in NRL, The Early Line by on May 4, 2011

I can't recommend a play in this with Brisbane having six players on rep duty and none named to play and the Storm with seven playing rep footy with Adam Blair already sustaining an injury during training.  The Storm have opened up between 5 ½ and 6 ½ point favourites. If these were both full strength, I would be playing Brisbane but at the moment, there is no way a bet can be made. Watch betting.

I will recommend a small play on the under if the line is 37.5 or bigger. Brisbane are a big under team while the Storm are a road under play. Play 1.5 units though this would be a 3 unit play if both teams were at capacity.

Cover Form: Brisbane 6-2 (LWWWW), Melbourne 6-2 (WWWLW)

Over-Under Form: Brisbane 1-7 (UUUOU), Melbourne 4-4 (OUUUO)

The Titans have won six straight against the Warriors and have opened up 4 ½ to 5 ½ point favourites. Mark Minichiello is the only Titan on rep duty while the Warriors have four in Simon Mannering, Lance Hohaia, Sam Rapira and Lewis Brown (18th man). I think the Warriors are right in this one. They have played well in day-time matches this year, are starting to his stride with four wins out of their last five and the big and aggressive Warriors pack matches up well against a Titans team without Nathan Friend.

Take 2 units on New Zealand +5 ½.

No total action in this one.

Cover Form: Gold Coast 3-5 (WLWLW), New Zealand 4-4 (WWLWW)

Over-Under Form: Gold Coast 4-4 (OUUOU), New Zealand 2-6 (OUUUO)

The Dragons have opened up 5 ½ point favourites here. Normally I would be right over the top of this against the Cowboys but with nine players on rep duty for the Dragons and Wayne Bennett indicating some players would be rested, there is no play here. The Cowboys have also gone 7-1 against the line to be the top cover team in the NRL in 2011, up from worst in 2010.

The Cowboys also go okay against the Dragons, winning four of the last six.

Not interested in the totals here.

Cover Form: St George-Illawarra 6-2 (LWWWW), North Qld 7-1 (WWWWW)

Over-Under Form: St George-Illawarra 2-6 (UUUUU), North Qld 5-3 (OUOOU)

Manly have won seven of their last nine against Canberra but Canberra's two wins in that time have been big upsets at Brookvale, in 2006 and 2010. Last year, the Raiders halted a four-game losing streak with a win at Brookvale, using the win as a catalyst for a late season finals run.

David Furner will be hoping for something similar here but I can't see it happening after seven straight losses and what I rate as the worst Canberra home performance of the last decade. The likes of Anthony Watmough and Steve Matai are going to cause Canberra all kinds of grief if their tackling last week was anything to go by.

Manly should win this comfortably. Betting has it 8 everywhere and you can take the minus for a unit.

No total.

Cover Form: Manly 4-4 (LWWLL), Canberra 1-7 (LLLLL)

Over-Under Form: Manly 2-6 (OUUUU), Canberra 6-2 (OOOUO)

Recommended Bets

1.5 units on Under (Brisbane-Melbourne) if total is 37.5 or bigger

2 units on New Zealand +5.5 at Sports Alive, Sportsbet at $1.91

1 unit on Manly -8 at most books at $1.91


Round          Bets     Units Bet       Units Returned         +/-

1                   3         1.5                   0.95                             -0.45
2                   6          6                     0.92                             -5.08
3                   7         11                    7.38                             -3.62
4                   8         13                   16.51                           +3.51
5                  10        16                   13.15                           -2.85
6                   8         14.5                19.60                           +5.10
7                   8         15                   11.66                           -3.34     
8                   9         18.5                27.74                           +9.24                

Total             Bets     Units Bet    Units Returned          +/-

                     59       95.5                 97.91                          +2.41


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