US Open – Memories and 2011 Tips

Filed in Other by on June 14, 2011

The US Masters is all about picture perfect settings and subtlety in the way it punishes golfers for errant shots with sleight of hand rather than brute force. The US Open, however, is a very different story, as the United States Golf Association (USGA) runs the fine line between identifying the best golfers in the world and humiliating them.

The penalties are harsh and highly visible, typically coming in the form of tall, heavy rough. Miss a fairway and there is a great chance your second shot will be struck with the sole aim of re-establishing a position on the short stuff. Controlling chip shots around the green is devilish when simply making clean contact is unlikely given the interference imposed by the thick, deep green stuff. The greens are often running at speeds rarely seen on a stimpmeter. 

Disaster lurks around every corner, often providing the tournament with a flair for the dramatic on the final day. The history of the tournament has provided many such cases. The back-nine collapse of Arnold Palmer at Olympic in 1966, the phenomenal one-iron tee shot of Jack Nicklaus on the 71st hole at Pebble Beach in 1972, the chip-in of Tom Watson at the same hole and course a decade later to deny Nicklaus a fifth title, and so the list goes.

To avoid this piece turning into a marathon that takes a solid 45 minutes to read, I have confined the recap below to the more recent dramatic moments of the US Open, commencing with the 1999 edition.

 

1999

The leader board after 54 holes at Pinehurst No. 2 was full of quality – 1991 champion Payne Stewart showing the way at 1-under par, Phil Mickelson at even, Tiger Woods at 1-over and Vijay Singh at 2-over.

Adding further drama to the mix was the family situation of Mickelson – his wife Amy was due to give birth to their first child and Phil wore a beeper all week, the prospect of a mid-tournament withdrawal looming large. In the end, Amy delivered the following day and Mickelson played a pivotal role in the final round saga.

Woods and Singh did not fade from the picture throughout the final day but were unable to make any headway, Woods recording an even-par round of 70 and Singh a 1-under 69 to finish in a tie for third place.

Mickelson took the lead after the 12th hole and held that position until the 16th, where a bogey dropped him back into a share of the lead with Stewart. On the 17th hole, Stewart birdied and regained the outright lead. Trouble was waiting for Stewart on the final hole though, and he faced an 18-foot par putt on the final hole for the title.

The par putt dropped and Stewart punched the air as one leg kicked out behind him, a celebration pose that was subsequently immortalised in a statue behind the 18th green of the famed No. 2 course at Pinehurst. In consoling Mickelson afterwards, he made a touching remark about the wonderful fatherhood journey Phil was about to embark upon – a timely reminder that golf is, after all just a game.

There was to be a sad epitaph to this tournament though, as Stewart died in a plane crash later in the year, aged just 42.

 

2000

The tournament itself had little drama – in fact, it was a complete rout – but is memorable nonetheless for two reasons.

Before the tournament commenced, many players gathered along the 18th fairway to pay tribute to late Payne Stewart, the defending champion, simultaneously striking balls into the Pacific Ocean as their way of honouring Stewart’s memory. The position in the field usually reserved for the defending champion was allocated to the great Jack Nicklaus, a four-time US Open champion, who observed a moment’s silence before hitting his opening tee shot in the first round.

Thereafter, it was the Tiger Woods show. He shot a 6-under par 65 to lead by two strokes after the opening round and followed it up with a 69 in the second round (to lead by six), a 71 in the third round (to lead by ten) and a 67 in the final round to complete a 15-stroke demolition job. The 15-stroke win represented a record margin of victory in a major championship and stands to this day.

Along the way, his 12-under par 272 total score was the first time in US Open history that a player had completed the tournament in 10-under par or better. It also marked the beginning of the famous “Tiger Slam” – Woods went on to win the 2000 British Open and 2000 PGA Championship, and then the 2001 Masters, becoming the first golfer ever to hold all four major trophies simultaneously.

 

2001

After the one-way traffic of 2000, it was nice to resume tense Sunday afternoon finishes in 2001 at Southern Hills. The final day began with Retief Goosen and Stewart Cink tied at 5-under par, with 1996 USPGA Championship winner Mark Brooks and Rocco Mediate tied at 4-under.

Mediate slipped out of the picture over the final holes, finishing alone in fourth at 2-under par. Brooks reached the final green at 5-under par, tied with Goosen, who still had two holes to play. However, Brooks proceeded to 3-putt the 72nd green, falling a stroke behind.

When Goosen reached the final hole, he still held a one-stroke lead over Brooks and faced a length birdie putt, which he left two feet from the hole – barely more than a tap-in to win the tournament. Playing partner Cink faced a makeable putt of his own to finish the tournament at 4-under alongside Brooks but the putt failed to drop.

Cink’s frustration turned to despair when Goosen missed his short par attempt and a playoff between Brooks and Goosen was set down for the Monday, which Goosen went on to win by two strokes.

 

2004

The 2004 instalment is remembered not so much for a grandstand finish, but for the brutal course conditions on the final day at Shinnecock Hills.

A combination of very fast, closely mown greens and a stiff, very dry wind saw the greens take on a strong resemblance to glass, with many putts all but refusing to come to rest.  On the final day, greens-keeping staff began putting water on some greens in-between playing groups in order to ensure completion of the tournament without descending into high farce. Despite this, not a single player broke par on the final day.

Retief Goosen began that final round at 5-under par, two strokes clear of Ernie Els and Phil Mickelson. Els carded an 80 in the final round, but Goosen and Mickelson duked it out over the Sunday afternoon.

Goosen had dropped a couple of shots on the Sunday by the time Mickelson birdied the 15th and 16th holes to advance to 4-under par and take a 1-stroke lead. But Goosen also birdied the 16th to draw level again.

The pivotal moment occurred on the 17th hole – Mickelson had a five-foot par putt, but three-putted to take a catastrophic double bogey and drop to 2-under par. Goosen parred in and took the title by two strokes. It was Goosen's second U.S. Open victory and the third time that Mickelson finished as runner-up.

 

2005

The US Open returned to Pinehurst No. 2 in 2005 and with one round to play, defending champion Retief Goosen was at 3-under par, three strokes clear of American journeymen Jason Gore and Olin Browne.

However, the leader board was in serious upheaval early on Sunday afternoon – Gore shot 84 on the final day while Browne shot 80. But the biggest shock was an 81 from two-time champion Goosen that saw him fall from contention in spectacular fashion.

Starting the day four and six strokes off the lead respectively, New Zealander Michael Campbell (who had gained a spot in the field via a sectional qualifying event) and Tiger Woods settled down to battle for the title on the back nine.

Woods was right in the frame for a third US Open title with just three holes to play, but bogeys on both the 16th and 17th holes proved costly. Campbell held his nerve to shoot 69 and finish the tournament at even par, two strokes clear of Woods. For Campbell it was his first (and to date, only) major title.

 

2006

My choice for the second most dramatic US Open of the past decade, the 2006 version at Winged Foot may have broken the record for most players thinking ‘what could have been?’ after the event.

On a week where the course took no prisoners and Tiger Woods missed the cut coming back from a break after the death of his father Earl, Phil Mickelson entered the final day tied for the lead with Kenneth Ferrie at 2-over par. Geoff Ogilvy was at 3-over, Colin Montgomerie and Vijay Singh at 5-over, Jim Furyk and Padraig Harrington at 6-over.

Ferrie slipped back steadily on the final day while Singh and Harrington failed to make any inroads on the leaders. It was a race in four: Mickelson (going for his third straight win in a major, having won the 2005 PGA Championship and the 2006 Masters), Ogilvy, Montgomerie and Furyk.

Furyk was the first contender to reach the 72nd hole, where he missed a 5-foot putt for par and set the clubhouse lead at 6-over. Hold that thought.

Montgomerie arrived at the final hole 4-over par for the tournament and safely found the fairway. Believing that his adrenalin will make his approach shot go further, he switched from a 6-iron to a 7-iron, caught the shot a little heavy and deposited it in the front right rough. From there he chipped 30 feet past the hole and 3-putted his way to a double bogey, joining Jim Furyk at 6-over par. Hold that thought as well.

Ogilvy reached the 17th hole of the day at 5-over, but made a terrible hash of the hole and faced with a tricky up-and-down attempt just to save bogey. Incredibly, he chipped in for a par and then made a terrific up-and-down for par at the last to finish the tournament at 5-over.

The mistakes of Montgomerie and Furyk at the final hole still seemed less fatal at this stage – after all, Phil Mickelson arrived at the final tee at 4-over par with a one shot lead over Ogilvy, knowing that a par will bring him a third straight major and his first US Open.

Having hit only two of 13 fairways all day, Phil took out the driver (uh oh)… and sprayed it a mile right into a spectator tent. Rather than playing safely back to the fairway, he then attempted to carve his second shot around tree limbs to reach the green (uh oh)…. and found timber. His third stroke found a greenside bunker on the left hand side and his bunker escape rolled off the green. One chip and one putt later, a double bogey – tournament lost. Geoff Ogilvy was, almost literally, the last man standing.

It was Ogilvy’s first (and to date, only) major title, while Mickelson candidly remarked afterwards of his final hole decision making “I am such an idiot”.

 

2007

For the second year in a row, 5-over par was good enough to win the US Open, this time held at Oakmont. In fact, only eight subpar rounds were posted in the entire tournament.

Angel Cabrera had left after 36 holes at even par, but a third round 76 saw him slip to 6-over, four strokes behind leader Aaron Baddeley and two strokes behind Tiger Woods, who sat alone in second place at 4-over.

Baddeley opened his final round with a triple bogey and finished with a round of 80 – his challenge had ended abruptly. Pennsylvania native Jim Furyk made yet another Sunday move at the US Open, banking par after par and holding his position at 6-over late in the final day.

But it was Cabrera who was first into the clubhouse, defying the pressure with a series of cigars and some crushing drives over the final holes to reach the clubhouse at 5-over par. Both Woods and Furyk arrived at the final hole requiring a birdie to force a playoff, but neither was able to do so, and Angel Cabrera became the first South American golfer to win the event.

 

2008

My choice for the most dramatic US Open of the past decade, based on the dramas that befell Tiger Woods and the manner in which he overcame them. Torrey Pines had been the site of six previous Tiger Woods victories on tour, but this was by far the biggest and most dramatic.

Several months before the 2008 US Open, Woods had undergone knee surgery, missing much of the earlier part of the PGA Tour season. He was in obvious pain on many shots throughout the week, but got himself into patented Woods grinding mode with a major title in sight.

Woods held the lead after three rounds of play at 3-under par. Lee Westwood was in second place at 2-under and Rocco Mediate was in third place at 1-under.

The final round was a tense affair, with no one man gaining a clear ascendancy. Playing one group ahead of Woods and Westwood, Mediate carded a 71 and set the clubhouse lead at 1-under par. Woods and Westwood had faltered slightly and as they reached the final hole, they each trailed Mediate by one stroke.

Both Woods and Westwood had birdie putts on the final hole to tie Mediate. Westwood's 15-footer failed to find the cup. Woods, as if preordained, drained his 12-footer and was unrestrained in his jubilation, sending the tournament into a Monday playoff.

After ten holes of the playoff, Woods led by three strokes and appeared set to cruise to victory. However, Mediate would not yield that easily – his back nine challenge saw the scores level after the 14th hole before he took the lead on the 15th. On the final tee, Woods again found himself trailing Mediate by one. Tiger responded to the challenge with another birdie on the 18th to tie the match up yet again and move in to a sudden-death playoff.

The sudden-death segment of the playoff commenced on the seventh hole and Mediate immediately found trouble down the left hand side, recording a bogey. Woods parred the hole, and won the championship.

Two days later, Woods announced season-ending knee surgery to repair a torn ACL, while also revealing that he had played the tournament with stress fractures in his left leg. The 2008 US Open was Woods’ third such title, his 14th major championship victory overall, and surely his gutsiest.

 

2010

A quality-laden leader board after 54 holes and the iconic setting of the Pebble Beach Golf Links set the scene for a dramatic final day at the 2010 US Open.

Dustin Johnson (a two-time winner of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Tour event) had posted a third round 66 to lead at 6-under par. Graeme McDowell held down second spot at 3-under. Tiger Woods had submitted one of his best post-marital-scandal rounds with a 66 on the Saturday to sit in third place at 2-under. Ernie Els and Gregory Harvet were at even par, while Phil Mickelson was at 1-over.

Amazingly, Johnson was almost the first man to take himself out of contention on the Sunday. He made triple bogey on the second hole, then had to declare a lost ball on the third hole after his drive finished in heavy brush well left of the fairway. He finished with an 82, in stark contrast to his third round 66.

Mickelson and Woods both suffered frustrating Sunday afternoons, hovering just a few shots off the pace all day but unable to make any birdies to launch a final round charge. Both would finish at 3-over par in a tie for fourth, three strokes shy of the leading score.

Els made a fast start on Sunday, reaching 3-under par after six holes to be tied for the lead with McDowell. He stumbled badly around the turn, dropping four strokes to par in a three-hole stretch, before rallying on the back nine as McDowell stumbled. At 1-over with two holes to play, he was well and truly in the fight, but a bogey at the 17th and a missed birdie opportunity at the final hole would prove costly. He would finish alone in third at 2-over.

The most surprising performance was that of Harvet. The unheralded Frenchman belied his lack of major championship contention experience and held his nerve throughout the final day, standing over a birdie putt at the final hole to reach even par. However, the putt failed to drop, and McDowell faced the proposition of making par at the final hole to win by one stroke.

The Northern Irishman held his nerve to record a par and become the first European winner of the US Open since Tony Jacklin won at Hazeltine in 1970.

 

2011 US Open selection

To recap, similar principles to those which apply for “Sting’s racing selections” will be in place here – bets will only be recommended for a top-5 finish in the tournament of that week where the price offered is $6 or better, with odds offered by Centrebet being used in the analysis.

 

Results for May 26 selections

Matt Kuchar(Memorial Tournament): T-2 (finally, a winning bet!)

Year to date selection results:18 selections (excluding refunds), one winning collect, return of 6.00, Profit on Turnover (POT) =  -67%

As noted earlier, penalties are harsh and disaster omnipresent at the US Open, and thus a steady hand is required. Finding fairways and greens, having the mettle to make a steady stream of five-foot putts for par and avoiding a wave of bogeys are all paramount for this event.

With that in mind, I want to run some 2011 Tour statistics for ‘Player X’ past you: 17th on tour in percentage of fairways hit, eighth in greens in regulation, 13th in putting average, third in bogey avoidance.

Sounds like the kind of guy you’d give strong consideration to for a US Open, right? Going a step further, you are probably thinking this statistical by-line fits quite well for Jim Furyk (a perennial contender at this event), aren’t you?

Well, you would be close had you though that – instead those statistics belong to ‘Jim Furyk 2.0’, otherwise known as Matt Kuchar. I know, I know… not Kuchar yet again. Hear me out.

Beyond the statistics presented above, he finished tied for sixth at Pebble Beach last year, and I’m loathe to pay much heed to his performances in previous years (as his world ranking at the time was in the triple digits, rather than no. 19 by the end of 2010 and well inside the top ten coming into this week).

He has eight top-10 finishes from just 14 starts on Tour in 2011, and his last two starts on tour resulted in a tie for sixth at the Byron Nelson Championship and a tie for second at the Memorial Tournament, an event where much as at the US Open, course management is at a premium.

To my mind, he ticks all the boxes for a strong candidate this week and at $7.00 to finish in the top-5 this week, he is my selection.

Thanks to Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images North America for use of the photo

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