January 29 Selections

Welcome to a racing tips column with a slight twist that has regard to the bookmakers’ starting price (or SP) in dictating whether a tipped horse should be backed or not. Let’s start with the January 29 meetings at Sandown (Hillside), Randwick, Doomben and Morphetville Parks.

A few ground rules to get things started:

(1) Selections will generally be posted on the Friday for a Saturday meeting (though on occasions tips may not be posted until race day)

(2) Selections will be accompanied by a ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid

This is intended to be the range of track conditions (some mix of fast 1 through to heavy 10) for which the tip is deemed to count for the purposes of keeping results, with track conditions outside this range rendering the tip invalid. For example, suppose I tipped Maluckyday in the Melbourne Cup last year with a ‘track rating range’ of good 3 to slow 7. If the track condition for that race were any of good 3, good 4, dead 5, dead 6 or slow 7, the tip is valid and therefore counts towards the overall results. However, if a torrential storm came over Flemington that afternoon and the track were downgraded to say a heavy 9, the tip would be invalid and not count towards the results. It’s really just a mechanism to allow for track conditions varying between when the tips are put together and when the race is actually run.

(3) Results will be based on a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP), and will be split into two groups– those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 1), and those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 2).

Here’s where this tips column throws in a twist. Overall race results for metropolitan racetracks over a sufficiently extended period tend to highlight that the SP is an excellent indicator of the probability of a horse winning (allowing a small margin for bookmaker profit, of course). For example, horses with an SP of $3 tend to win around 30 per cent of the time, horses with an SP of $5 tend to win just under 20 per cent of the time, horses with an SP of $9 tend to win around 10 per cent of the time and so forth, although at longer odds the bookmakers’ profit margin tends to increase a little. But you get the idea.

However, for reasons I’ve never particularly understood, the winning strike rate of my own tips does not follow that same ‘inverse of the SP’ pattern. My shorter-priced tips win significantly less frequently than the SP would suggest – I gave up betting shorter-priced horses a number of years ago for that very reason. Whereas my longer-priced tips tend to win more frequently than the SP would suggest, although 2010 was a slight loss overall because I got too cute in trying to take on favourites that simply should not have been taken on, such as backing More Joyous in the Cox Plate. I will endeavour not to repeat those mistakes in 2011.

Nonetheless, money can be made from both groups of selections, provided all things go to plan. Whilst the results for both Groups 1 and 2 will be reported as if they are both being bet on, the strategy more likely to result in a profit would be to ‘back’ (i.e. bet on) the horses in Group 1, and ‘lay’ (i.e. bet against) the horses in Group 2, either by directly ‘laying’ them via a Betfair account, or by simply picking a different horse (or horses) when it comes to making a bet in that race.

Alright then, that’s enough foreplay, let’s get this show on the road…

Saturday January 29

Sandown Hillside (tips based on a track rating range of good 3 to dead 6)

Race 5 No. 4 Abitofado

A nice second up run where he finished just behind Tears I Cry should have him primed for today. He meets the winner 2.5 kg better at the weights and has two win and two placings from five starts at the track. With 53 kg after the claim and drawn in barrier one, he should get the gun run just off the leader and be hard to hold out.

Race 8 No. 6 Simply Put

A last start winner at Sandown (Lakeside) following on from an unlucky second to Mid Summer Music at the start prior. Her only start on the Hillside course was on a heavy track where she could be forgiven for racing poorly. Take away that run and she has three wins and four placings from eight starts.

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 3 to dead 6)

Race 6 No. 7 All Legal

He ran a terrific race second up when travelling wide without cover for much of the race before just failing to haul in the winner Parthian. He steps up to the mile for this run, a distance over which he has two wins from four attempts. With Voice Commander the likely leader in running, All Legal can take the sit behind him and be ready to strike over the final 200 metres.

Race 7 No. 2 Tierqualo

A last start winner in a BM80 race, Tierqualo was competitive over the Brisbane carnival in multiple black type races behind the likes of Stryker and Girl Hussler, especially given that he had to work hard in the early stages from wide barriers on a couple of occasions. Here is another horse who can camp behind the likely leader (Rosie’s Reward) and be right in the firing line late in the race.

Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 3 to dead 6)

Race 4 No. 1 Ollie Vollie

Yes, it has been a while since Ollie Vollie saluted the judge. But in a race that is light on for depth, he has drawn barrier one and will only carry 55 kg after the claim. In his previous three starts he was beaten less than half a length by Falco Star in a Quality, beaten 3.6 lengths by Swift Alliance in the Listed Razor Sharp, and beaten less than two lengths by Pinwheel in the Listed Canterbury Classic. He clearly has the best recent form line of any horse in the race, and I expect him to be motoring home late and be too good.

Race 6 No. 1 Funtantes

Another horse who has struggled to locate the winners’ stall of late, albeit that she has been racing well in better company than this, often taking on the boys. Her get back, run on style requires a little luck in navigating a clear passage in the home straight, but with barrier three and Jim Byrne on board, she gets her chance today to break the run of near misses.

Morphetville Parks (tips based on a track rating range of good 3 to dead 6)

Race 8 No. 3 Outlandish Lad

I’m feeling generous and will forgive Outlandish Lad for his seemingly disappointing last start effort in a race that seemed to pan out best for the front-runners. His previous two starts resulted in second and fourth placings at Listed level, so the drop in class to restricted grade is likely to assist. He has also posted two wins and a second from four runs at the distance, as well as two wins and a second from four runs at the track.