September 30, October 1 and October 2 Racing Selections

Tips for this weekend cover the September 30 meeting at Moonee Valley (featuring the Group 1 Manikato Stakes), the October 1 meeting at Rosehill (featuring the Group 1 Epsom Handicap and Group 1 Metropolitan) and the October 2 meeting at Flemington (featuring the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes).

 

Results for September 24

Invalid tips (due to scratchings and/ or track ratings that were outside the prescribed range)

Nil

Tips where the SP was $5.50 or less

Caulfield – Lady Mahler ($5.50 SP, $6.00 BOB) – Won

Caulfield – First Command ($4.20) – second

Rosehill – Ironstein ($5.50) – unplaced

Rosehill – Ofcourseican ($4.60) – third

Doomben – Faster Son ($2.70) – unplaced

Morphettville – Tropic Thunder ($4.60) – unplaced

September 24 Results: Six selections, one winner, SP return of $5.50, BOB return of $6.00

Overall Results: 85 selections, 17 winners, SP return of $63.15, SP POT = -26%, Luxbet BOB return of $73.60, BOB POT = -13%

Tips where the SP was $6 or greater

Caulfield – Don Carlos ($19.00 SP) – unplaced

September 24 Results: One selection, no winners

Overall Results: 80 selections, nine winners, SP return of $72.50, SP POT = -9%, Luxbet BOB return of $84.50, BOB POT = +6%

All tips

Overall Results: 165 selections, 26 winners, SP return of $135.65, SP POT = -18%, Luxbet BOB return of $158.10, BOB POT = -4%

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Rules

(1) A ‘track rating range’ for which the tip will be considered valid will accompany selections.

(2) Results refer to a win-only bet at the bookmakers’ starting price (SP) or Luxbet’s ‘Best of Best’ (BOB) price divided into two groups– those where the SP is $5.50 or less (Group 1), and those where the SP is $6 or greater (Group 2).

 

Friday September 30

Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 4 No. 1 Zaratone

This speedster didn’t handle the step up to the 1200 metres in the Group 3 The Shorts last start when down the track behind Love Conquers All, but should be much better placed with the drop in class and distance (to 955 metres) this time around. With 14 wins from 31 starts, including a win at Listed level over Atomic Force only three starts back, he is well and truly up to winning a race such as this.

 

Saturday October 1

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 7 No. 6 Pinker Pinker

The form through the Group 2 Stocks Stakes appears to be one of the strongest form lines going around at the moment and thus I’m happy to be with the mare who pushed proven WFA galloper King’s Rose in that race. Prior to that she won the Group 2 Let’s Elope Stakes (another strong race), while last autumn she ran third in the Group 1 AJC Oaks over 2400 metres, so the tough Randwick mile should pose no problems. With barrier five and only 52.5 kilos to carry, this represents a fantastic chance for her to win her maiden Group 1 race.

Race 9 No. 8 Lamasery

The Group 3 Colin Stephen race has proven over the years to be a fantastic preview to the Metropolitan and I have no hesitation in picking the Colin Stephen winner here, especially as he drops from 57 kilos down to 52 kilos for this race. He has posted nine wins and three placings from only 15 starts in his career to date (a surprisingly high winning strike rate for a middle distance/ staying horse) and I think his star is still on the rise.

 

Sunday October 2

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 3 No. 4 Niwot

His second-up run in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes was a nice effort when seventh behind December Draw and he is certainly a horse who grows in stature as the distances get longer. He has two wins from three runs at Flemington, including a win in the Listed Andrew Ramsden Stakes over 3200 metres when carrying 58 kilos. He handles both wet and dry conditions well and importantly, his overall record (19 starts for seven wins and four placings) improves significantly when you look only at runs third-up or later into a campaign (nine such runs for five wins and three seconds). From barrier two he should get a good run in transit and be hard to hold out.

Race 6 No. 7 Response

Sentiment requires me to tip one of my favourite girls, especially after a better-than-it-looked first up effort carrying 60.5 kilos at Moonee Valley where she was never in the right part of the track. Prior to that, her form revolves around Group 1 races, of which she has won two. Her two runs down the Flemington straight have yielded a third placing in the Group 2 Salinger Stakes and a fourth behind Black Caviar in the Group 1 Newmarket Handicap. With good early speed likely to be in the offing, I think she can swoop home late to take the win.

Race 7 No. 7 Glass Harmonium

I thought At First Sight’s run in the Group 3 Naturalism Stakes was as good as December Draw’s, and since there are a few runners engaged here who beat At First Sight fair and square in the Group 2 Makybe Diva Stakes before running in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes, it is logical to follow the (seemingly) stronger form line. With that in mind, I have arrived at Glass Harmonium. His second in the Makybe Diva Stakes was an excellent first-up run and his fourth placing in the Underwood Stakes was better than it looked, given that he played up at the barriers before the race. From barrier one I think he can dictate terms at the front of the field and provided that he settles well in running, is tough enough to hold off challenges in the home straight.

 

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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo