ANZ Championships – Round 1 Tips
If you listen very carefully as this weekend approaches, you may hear Kiwi rapper Scribe rhetorically asking, “How many sites you know roll like this? How many sites you know flow like this? Not many, if any….” And you know what that means…. a weekly netball gambling column (specifically, one based around the ANZ Championships) is back for 2012, albeit with a slight change in staffing.
Despite my best attempts to explain to Ms Netball how impressive it was to have 10 of 15 recommended bets get up (had you bet $100 on each occasion, your $1,500 outlay would have turned into $1,900), she seemed nonplussed. Or maybe she saw my ‘success’ with racing tips and is trying to distance herself from me. The specifics are unclear, other than to say she has handed over the reins for tipping the netball this time around.
Fear not though – stepping into the centre circle for us in 2012 is Ben Carbonaro. Ben is one half of Three Feet Radio, a netball writer for the Sports Australia website and a long time aficionado of the sport. Suffice to say, I think we’re in safe hands once again this season.
Before we delve into the opening weekend of matches, it may be worth a quick refresher course on what this column will set out to do, and more broadly how betting on the netball operates.
Once again this year, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where Ben’s opinion differs from that of bookmakers by at least 3.5 goals.
That’s a purely subjective point to draw the line, albeit informed by some distributional analysis that discussed in the link above. You could choose to bet any game where the opinions differ by at least 2.5 goals, or at least 5.5 goals, or whatever takes your fancy. However, recommended bets (and results of these bets) for this column will be based on games where the relevant opinions differ by at least 3.5 goals.
As a consequence, there will be some games each week where the opinions of Ben and the bookmakers are too close to each other and no bet is recommended. This is a good thing. As highlighted in last year’s introductory piece, you don’t want to blindly hand over the edge in the odds to the bookmaker. Pick your battles carefully.
That’s more than enough of my ramblings for one week – time to hand it over to Ben for the inside word on the opening round of the 2012 ANZ Championships:
Round One Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)
Saturday March 31, 1:50 PM Adelaide Thunderbirds v NSW Swifts
Thunderbirds: 5-8 in 2011 regular season (sixth on ladder), 3-4 home
Swifts: 9-4 in 2011 regular season (third on ladder), 5-2 away
Bookmakers’ line: Thunderbirds -7.5 (TAB Sportsbet)
Ben says: The Thunderbirds won the premiership two years ago and with a fully fit Natalie von Bertouch back on board at centre, they will be dangerous. Swifts have lost Cox and Bulley, leaving a hole at both ends of the court. Thunderbirds by 8
Recommended bet: Nil
Sunday April 1, 2:20 PM Queensland Firebirds v Melbourne Vixens
Firebirds: 13-0 in 2011 regular season (first on ladder), 6-0 home
Vixens: 8-5 in 2011 regular season (fifth on ladder), 3-3 away
Bookmakers’ line: Firebirds -12.5 (TAB Sportsbet)
Ben says: Vixens defensive end will be strong again this year, but the Firebirds have the cattle to open their premiership defence with a win at home. Firebirds by 6
Recommended bet: 1 unit on Melbourne Vixens +12.5 at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
Sunday April 1, 7:20 PM Northern Mystics v Central Pulse
Mystics: 9-4 in 2011 regular season (fourth on ladder), 3-3 home
Pulse: 3-10 in 2011 regular season (eighth on ladder), 1-5 away
Bookmakers’ line: Mystics -7.5 (TAB Sportsbet)
Ben says: Despite the Pulse having a new coach in Robyn Broughton on board and in form shooter Caitlin Thwaites, the Mystics will get the better of them in this closely contested round one encounter. Mystics by 5
Recommended bet: Nil
Monday April 2, 7:40 PM Southern Steel v Waikato/BOP Magic
Steel: 4-9 in 2011 regular season (seventh on ladder), 3-3 home
Magic: 10-3 in 2011 regular season (second on ladder), 6-1 away
Bookmakers’ line: Steel +9.5 (TAB Sportsbet)
Ben says: The Magic were the best performed New Zealand based team during the home and away season last year, but failed to deliver come finals time. This is different to the Steel, who were just never able to get going. Magic by 7
Recommended bet: Nil
Monday April 2, 5:40 PM West Coast Fever v Canterbury Tactix
Fever: 3-10 in 2011 regular season (ninth on ladder), 1-6 home
Tactix: 1-12 in 2011 regular season (tenth on ladder), 0-6 away
Bookmakers’ line: Fever -11.5 (TAB Sportsbet)
Ben says: The Fever have promised plenty but shown little in recent seasons, but this season will see them finally come through with the goods. With Norma Plummer and Catherine Cox coming on board, this is a big plus for them. Fever by 18
Recommended bet: 1 unit on Fever -11.5 at $1.87 (TAB Sportsbet)
Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
Other netball columns:
Idiot’s Guide to the ANZ Championship
Shaking Up the ANZ Championship
Good luck with it, guys.
I know Ben from a netball forum that we're both on. Hopefully his tips will do well for this site.
Good to see some of the lines come out nice and early. Hope it continues.
At Tattsbet, you can actually get a slightly better price of $1.90 for Vixens +13.5 and Fever -11.5. Alternatively, they also have Fever to win by 11+ goals @ $1.75 so you get an extra goal there for insurance. That would probably be my best bet of the round. Round 1 is always tricky in any sport, but I think Fever should have too much for the Tactix over in Perth.
Off to a good start. Not only did Vixens win with the start, they won head to head!!!
Firebirds, unbeaten through the whole of 2011 go down in their first match of 2012. Could the premiership curse strike them just like it struck the previous 3 champions?
As predicted, the Fever were far too good for the Tactix. That start was never going to be enough for them.
Well done, Ben. And well done Cliff. I like this method you've worked out of 3.5 goals. Really seems to work and I'm using it with my own tipping.