ANZ Championships – Round 4 Tips

The Swifts and defending champion Firebirds may have opened their winning accounts for 2012 last week but they remain well off the early pace being set by the Vixens and Mystics. However the Magic, a long-time benchmark for the Kiwi teams, remain mired at the foot of the ladder. Over at Making The Nut’s netball offices, Three Feet Radio’s own Ben Carbonaro suffered his first line bet defeat of the season, yet continues to bang home a profit week after week. In fact between Ben and Ms Netball, they have gone a combined 18-6 against the line in netball for 2011 and 2012 – much to the ongoing delight of my wallet. Ben returns this week to preview Round 4.

 

Results for Round 3 tips

Round 3:  4 units bet, 3 winners, return of 5.70 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +43%

2012 total:  9 units bet, 8 winners, return of 15.05 units, Profit on Turnover (PoT) = +67%

Our 2011 introductory discussion of how netball line betting works and what to expect from this column

Once again this year, for the purposes of this weekly column, we will only recommend a bet where Ben’s opinion differs from that of bookmakers by at least 3.5 goals.

Here are Ben’s thoughts on Round 4 of the 2012 ANZ Championships:

 

Round 4 Tips (please note: all times are the local time for the home side)

 

Saturday April 21, 4:20 PM Southern Steel v West Coast Fever

Steel:  2-1 (fourth on ladder), 1-0 at home

Fever:  1-2 (sixth on ladder), 0-1 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  The Steel have had two upset wins across the first three rounds and will be strong at home, but a youthful/confident Fever team should win across the ditch in front of a parochial crowd in Dunedin. The Fever have slowly been showing improvement under new coach Norma Plummer and I believe that they will not be the cellar dwelling team that they previously have been. Fever by 2

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Sunday April 22, 1:50 PM Melbourne Vixens v Waikato/BOP Magic

Vixens:  3-0 (first on ladder), 0-0 at home

Magic:  0-3 (tenth on ladder), 0-2 away

Bookmakers’ line:  TBC

Ben says:  The Vixens are starting to recapture the form that saw them win an ANZ Championship back in 2009 and after two years in the finals wilderness, they are starting to look the good again. Magic look to be struggling to maintain their title as one of New Zealand's best teams in the competition and Vixens should comfortable win their first home game in front of what is always a passionate crowd. Vixens by 10

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Sunday April 22, 7:20 PM NSW Swifts v Queensland Firebirds

Swifts:  1-2 (seventh on ladder), 1-0 at home

Firebirds:  1-2 (fifth on ladder), 0-0 away

Bookmakers’ line:   TBC

Ben says:  Swifts have had an indifferent start to the season this year and won their first of this year's campaign at home over Magic last Monday night, but they face a harder task facing defending premiers Queensland Firebirds. The Firebirds demolished Central Pulse last Sunday and are starting to find the form that saw them go undefeated across the entire season (including finals) on the way to the premiership last year. Firebirds by 6

Recommended bet:    TBC

 

Sunday April 22, 7:20 PM Northern Mystics v Adelaide Thunderbirds

Mystics:  3-0 (second on ladder), 2-0 at home

Thunderbirds:  2-1 (third on ladder), 1-0 away

Bookmakers’ line:    TBC

Ben says:  The Mystics were a surprise packet when they made the Grand Final last year under coach Debbie Fuller and they have started this year in a blaze of glory, not dropping a game during the first three rounds. They have good depth across the court and if Cathrine Latu is on song inside the shooting circle, they are hard to beat. Adelaide are another team who have had an indifferent start to the year and were belted by the Vixens on their home court last week and while they met get close in Auckland, my tip is Mystics by 4

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Monday April 16, 7:40 PM Central Pulse v Canterbury Tactix

Pulse:  1-2 (ninth on ladder), 1-0 at home

Tactix:  1-2 (eighth on ladder), 0-1 away

Bookmakers’ line:   TBC

Ben says:  In the only all New Zealand clash of the round, the two teams who have been the competition's cellar dwellers in recent years clash in Porirua. The Pulse look to be a better, more competitive side under Robyn Brought this year and her attacking style of play has helped the Pulse prove why they will not be easy beats anymore. Tactix appear to take the tag of competition whipping boy off the Pulse this year and will struggled to counteract the Pulse's attacking/uncompromising netball they throw out on court. Pulse by 8

Recommended bet:   TBC

 

Thanks to Phil Walter/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo