June 23 Racing Selections

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on June 21, 2012

I tipped three winners last week, none of which count as recommended bets. Admittedly two were at pretty short odds, but I was none too pleased when discovering on Sunday morning that stewards had upgraded to Flemington track to a ‘dead 5’ before Gossip Girl won the last (at $6.50 SP and $7.70 Luxbet BOB). Not that it counts for the records here, but at least I got some of Luxbet’s cash in that race – the beauty of having to bet early to access the ‘BOB’ price. Anyway, onward and upward to the June 23 tips – covering the meetings at Flemington, Warwick Farm and Eagle Farm (featuring the Group 1 Tattersall’s Tiara).

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for June 16 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – Harry Trimbole

Track outside prescribed range – Gossip Girl (shaking my head at the VRC stewards sadly)

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Aeronwy, Startsmeup, Punctuate

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Ipswich – Hidden Kisses ($7.50 SP) – unplaced

Morphettville – Glacial Miss ($6.00) – unplaced

June 16 results:   2 selections, no winners

2012 results:  38 selections, 38 units bet, 1 winner, 14 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 9.00 units (POT = -76%), BOB return of 9.50 units (POT = -75%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Flemington – Geejayhaitch ($10.00 SP) – unplaced

June 16 results:  1 selection, no winners

2012 results:  12 selections, 6 units bet, 1 winner, 1 third, SP return of 5.00 units (POT = -17%), BOB return of 5.00 units (POT = -17%)

Overall Results

June 16:  3 selections, 2.5 units bet, no winners

2012:  50 selections, 44 units bet, 2 winners, 15 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 14.00 units (POT = -68%), BOB return of 14.50 units (POT = -67%)

 

Saturday June 23

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of slow 6 to heavy 10)

Race 3 No. 3 Crabs

  • Put the writing on the wall last start when finishing strongly for second behind Swooper, and meets that mare 1.5 kilos better off this time around.
  • Has four wins and four placings from 12 starts in this distance range.
  • Has seven wins and five placings from 16 runs on slow tracks.
  • Gets in only half a kilo over the limit after the claim.

Race 5 No. 15 Future Solution

  • Put in an excellent run last start when a close third behind Chosen To Fly, defeating the likes of Sophrosyne (who had previously beaten Wealthy Lad home at Cranbourne) and Any Dream Will Do.
  • Has three wins and five placings from eight starts on slow or heavy ground.
  • Has a win and four placings from five starts at the distance.
  • In on the limit weight of 54 kilos and if he can get a run (currently the first emergency), is likely to roll forward and give himself every chance in the straight.

 

Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of slow 6 to heavy 10)

Race 5 No. 8 Harry Trimbole

  • Starting to find form after three runs in this preparation, with a last start second to Zaamore indicating he’s ready to win.
  • Has five wins and three placings from 10 runs when third-up or further into a campaign.
  • Has three wins and three placings from eight runs on slow or heavy tracks.
  • All five of his career wins have come in the 1600-2150 metre range, so the 2200 metres of this race should prove no obstacle.
  • You always have to respect Mick Kent when he brings one up from Victoria for a race such as this.

 

Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 6 Wazn

  • With the likes of Ginga Dude, Once Were Wild, Kinnersley and Za Magic engaged here the speed should be very solid, so looking to the ‘get back, run on’ types in this race.
  • His last start fourth in Brisbane Cup behind Lights Of Heaven and Mawingo (beating home five of his opponents for this race) reads as excellent form.  
  • Was beaten less than a length by Kinnersley three starts back over 2000 metres when he was second-up and the winner was having his seventh run of the campaign, so he has scope for improvement over the likely favourite.
  • Adept on all surfaces and from barrier eight should get a nice smother midfield behind the strong pace.

Race 7 No. 2 Red Tracer

  • Her best form is on really wet tracks but don’t overlook her dry track runs, where she has two wins and five placings from nine starts.
  • She has two wins and two seconds from four runs over this trip.
  • She has an overall career record of eight wins and seven placings from 18 starts, with all three unplaced runs coming over distances of 1500 metres or further.
  • Can be handy to the speed in a race where the tempo is likely to be modest.

 

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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