August 11 Racing Selections

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on August 9, 2012

Tips for August 11 cover the meetings at Flemington, Warwick Farm and Eagle Farm.

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for August 4 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – The Reveller

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Moonee Valley – Domesky ($9.00 SP) – unplaced

Moonee Valley – Eagle Falls ($9.00) – unplaced

Canterbury – Our Barney ($7.00) – unplaced

August 4 results:   3 selections, no winners

2012 results:  53 selections, 53 units bet, 4 winners, 19 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 31.00 units (POT = -42%), BOB return of 32.80 units (POT = -38%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

August 4 results:  No selections

2012 results:  15 selections, 7.5 units bet, 2 winners, 1 third, SP return of 11.00 units (POT = +47%), BOB return of 11.95 units (POT = +59%)

Overall Results

August 4:  3 selections, 3 unit bet, no winners

2012:  68 selections, 60.5 units bet, 6 winners, 20 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 42.00 units (POT = -31%), BOB return of 44.75 units (POT = -26%)

 

Saturday August 11

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 3 No. 5 Babel

  • Won two starts back at Bendigo before a solid third to Bonaria last time out.
  • Her last start third was her only previous attempt at 1400 metres, but her last two wins were over 1300, so the trip should present no problem.
  • Has solid form on tracks rated better than heavy, unlike a number of the fancies in this race who are out-and-out swimmers.
  • Drawn well in barrier one to be positioned wherever she’s most comfortable in running.

Race 5 No. 6 Dusty Star

  • While he hasn’t won any of his last four starts, his efforts bode well for a race of this class – a pair of seconds at Listed level, a seventh (beaten just over three lengths) by Tiger Tees at Group 3 level and a last start third (beaten less than a length) by Ready To Rip in the Group 3 Bletchingly Stakes.
  • Has two wins and three seconds from eight starts at the trip, including a win and two seconds from four starts at the track and trip.
  • From barrier six, Luke Nolen should be able to roll forward and dictate terms.

Race 7 No. 9 Shiny Buttons

  • With the two favourites (Darlimurla Star and Dayita) untested at the 2000 metres, I’m going with a ‘been there, done that’ commodity.
  • Has a win and two seconds from four starts at the trip, including a win at Warrnambool three starts ago and a pair of second placings at Caulfield and Morphettville since.
  • Drops 2.5 kilos in weight from his last run.
  • His overall record improves to three wins and six placings from just 10 starts when you exclude first and second-up runs.

 

Warwick Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 8 No. 10 Jayconi

  • In a race where quite a few runners have hit their plateau level, I like the lightly-raced Victorian with further scope for improvement.
  • His overall record is strong (three wins and three placings from eight starts), and includes a win at his only previous 1100-metre run.
  • Gets a 3.5 kilo weight drop from his last start second at Seymour in a BM 78, despite only rising to a BM 80 race here.
  • From barrier two he can push forward, which is almost always a beneficial trait at Warwick Farm.

 

Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 3 D’Jet

  • He was a strong winner over this journey (and in this class) at Doomben a fortnight ago when first-up.
  • His form last preparation included placings behind some good quality open class sprinters, such as Rocker, Skating On Ice and Griffon.
  • Generally performs better when second-up than when first-up, and from barrier one will get every chance in running.

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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