A Night for the True Believers

“Well, this is the sweetest victory of all. This is a victory for the true believers: the people who, in difficult times, have kept the faith. And to the Australian people, through hard times, it makes their act of faith all that much greater.”
-Paul Keating

Saturday night was one for the true believers though, quite probably, not the true believers Paul Keating was talking about. Tony Abbott had pulled off a miracle. Even his most ardent supporters would never have dared dream a year ago or even six weeks back of the prospect that the hard-man of the Right would take away Labor’s majority in the House. The Rudd Government was, of course, one of the most popular administrations in Australian history, Julia Gillard was the darling of the bleeding hearts and it had been 79 years since a first-term government was thrown from office.

It happened though. Alleluia, it happened.

There was no doubt on Saturday night when both leaders strode to the stage to give their speeches who, at least in an esoteric sense, was the winner and who was the loser.

Gillard was downcast and her supporters shocked as the reality of the political landscape hit them all. The chants were limp and the smiles forced. What started out as a night to party turned into a wake. Their heroine from 2007, Maxine McKew, had already been vanquished and the blood-letting had already begun. Gillard tried her best to rouse the Labor faithful but there were only a deluded few who didn’t see through the façade. The stark truth of Labor’s demise was staring them all right in the eye.

Abbott, by contrast, appeared on the podium at the Four Seasons a hero. Whether he becomes Prime Minister or not, Abbott has etched himself into Liberal Party lore and arguably sits behind only Robert Menzies and John Howard in terms of post-war political heroism for those who call the right home. Abbott talked the talk of a winner, rapping the rap of the victor. The true believers deliriously chanted “Tony, Tony” throughout the speech as Abbott stated this was not a moment for triumphalism but indicated that it probably was. “This is a night for pride in our achievements, for satisfaction at the good results that have been achieved, but above all else, measured reflection of the magnitude of the task ahead.” Labor had indeed lost its legitimacy to govern. They will indeed find it difficult to govern from a minority. More people had indeed voted for the Coalition. Tony Abbott had led the Coalition from political oblivion to the verge of government in less than a year. His performance since he has become leader of the Liberal Party ranks as one of the great political performances in the history of Australian politics.

Abbott’s miracle does not, of course, mean victory, at least in terms of having any rights to govern. We will have a minority government and that is the long and the short of it. The Coalition are in the box seat, however, and if you were having your last on something it would be a Tony Abbott Prime Ministership. Funnily enough, we can thank all those hipsters, middle class bleeding hearts and damned fools in the seat of Melbourne who voted Green and those in Denison who attached their wagon to the Andrew Wilkie horse. In a sense Labor’s threat in Melbourne that a vote for the Greens was a vote for Tony Abbott is about to become reality. If the rural independents use a Coalition win in seats as justification, the fracture of the left vote will cost Labor office. It can’t be read any other way.

As of writing, the count is 71-71 with Hasluck, Brisbane and Corangamite all still in play. The Coalition should take Brisbane from Arch Bevis while Labor appears to have the edge in Corangamite though Sarah Henderson is pushing hard. Hasluck is the tightest contest though the Coalition have the lead by near-on 600 votes with the postal votes favouring Liberal candidate Ken Wyatt. If the counts hold, then the next House will be made up of 73 Coalition members, 72 from the ALP camp, 3 rural independents, Andrew Wilkie and Green Andrew Bandt.

If the Coalition wins Hasluck and holds its lead in Brisbane, Tony Abbott will be our next Prime Minister.

There has been a battle for the high moral ground since Saturday with both Labor and the Coalition trying to fight for legitimacy. Julia Gillard has claimed Labor should govern because they received a higher proportion of the two-party-preferred vote though this claim is rubbished by the fact the AEC has not done 2pp counts in the seats of Kennedy, Lyne, New England, O’Connor, Melbourne and Denison due to independents winning the seats or the battle being a Liberal-National war. Labor have not, in fact, won the 2pp. Tony Abbott has claimed that the Coalition received a greater share of the primary vote and was therefore more entitled to govern.

Both arguments hold no moral weight and the independents who will crown the next king or queen should disregard vote counts completely. Vote counts are not constitutionally relevant with the only count that has any importance being the seat count. If the seat count is tied, the independents would need to invite either the Coalition or the ALP to form government based on who they believed offered the best prospect of stability. If the Coalition wins more seats, as it appears they will, the independents will be obliged to support Tony Abbott. It would be a national disgrace if the party with the most seats was not invited to form government. With the natural conservative leanings of Bob Katter, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, that should prove enough justification, after a long period of negotiation and horse-trading, for the independents to support a Coalition government.

I dislike those at The Chaser deeply but this skit Click Here on who votes Green is highly entertaining. It also, fairly accurately, describes the lefties who threw Julia Gillard and Labor from office. Had Labor held either Melbourne or Denison, with Denison originally long odds to be lost, Labor would have entered the negotiations with the independents on level moral ground with the Coalition. They are unlikely to do so. It was the Greens voters in Melbourne who have inflicted significant and likely fatal damage to the Gillard Government despite Green Adam Bandt promising to support Labor. The Labor propaganda was right: a vote for the Greens was a vote for Tony Abbott. Had Labor held Melbourne along with Denison, both heavily left-leaning districts, they would have a likely 74-73 seat edge on the Coalition and the independents would have been obliged to support Labor. I and my brethren could not be more grateful to the hipsters, trendies, hippies and bleeding hearts, all of whom generally loathe Tony Abbott, for propelling him to the Prime Ministership. The delicious twist of the do-gooder Green voters making Tony Abbott Prime Minister will be as tasty as it is fulfilling.

Regardless of all the noise being made by Adam Bandt, Andrew Wilkie, maverick West Australian National Tony Crook and the Greens Senate leader Bob Brown, there are only three men that matter right now: Bob Katter, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott. They will act as a bloc and the next government will be formed with their blessing. There has been a lot of talk about these three forcing parliamentary reform, creating a unity government and finding a suitable path to stability but their decision will be based on three factors: the number of seats won by each party, the will of their own individual electorates and their ability to extract promises that will benefit rural and regional Australia.

As noted above, the triumvirate will be morally compelled to side with whichever party wins the most seats. In the event of a tie, however, they will be free of any moral obligation to side with one over the other. Electorally, however, all three are well aware of the consequences of siding with Labor. Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott represent traditional National Party seats where the electorate is essentially socially and economically conservative. Bob Katter’s seat of Kennedy has been represented by Katter or his father since 1966 with the exception of 1990-93 when Labor’s Rob Hulls was the MP but the seat is arguably more conservative than either New England or Lyne, particularly economically where the voices crying against free trade are deafening. All three would naturally be considered to the right of the political spectrum; all three have previously had an attachment to the National Party and all three would naturally be expected to side with the Coalition.

Coalition support won’t come free of charge though. The Gang of Three, as they are colloquially now known as, have already laid out a seven-point list of demands that includes parliamentary reform, changes political donation legislation, a commitment to truth in advertising and a pledge to serving out the full term of parliament. Off the books, the demands will be greater with all three likely to command plenty for their bush electorates including better communications, a change to population policy, increased rural infrastructure and potentially even a move to a more protectionist trade policy. Personal trinkets like ministries and the speakership could also be on the table.

As long as Hasluck and Brisbane remain firm for the Coalition, government is Tony Abbott’s to lose. The stars have aligned and only an unpredictable move from the independents, stupidity on behalf of the Coalition negotiating team, a backlash against the Nationals by the independents or a change in direction of the count then Tony Abbott is a lock to become Prime Minister.

The election cannot be called a total success for the Coalition, however, with the chance at winning a majority blown in Abbott’s home state of New South Wales. The incredible gains made in Queensland were in part negated by the failure of the Liberal Party to make any significant inroads into New South Wales. The failure to take advantage of an historically unpopular state Labor government was the most surprising element of the election.

The gains made in Queensland really should have been enough to have Tony Abbott already in the Lodge. The Coalition have picked up eight Queensland seats (two notional pickups) and likely nine on the back of some mammoth swings. Leichardt fell on an 8.2% swing though the return of Warren Entsch meant that seat was expected to return to the Coalition. The same cannot be said of Bonner, Forde or Longman though. All were upset wins and they went on swings of 6.9%, 4.9% and 4.1% respectively. Brisbane may yet fall with a 4.9% swing having the Coalition in the box seat. By any measure, it was a scorched earth for Labor in Queensland. They were annihilated. Even a 20-year-old kid stole a seat from the ALP. The execution of Kevin Rudd saw Queenslanders make Labor pay.

That left government there to be won in New South Wales for the Coalition but a combination of poor judgement, political in-fighting, ordinary pre-selection and misuse of resources saw the Coalition make a net gain of only one seat. The Coalition picked up notional losses of Macarthur and Gilmore and won only Macquarie and Bennelong. There is no doubt the most enjoyable moment of the night for any Liberal voter was the defeat of Maxine McKew in Bennelong. She had vanquished John Howard and had become the face of Labor victory in 2007 and seeing her beaten and bitter and betrayed was a sweet moment for the true believers. It was the seat of Robertson that has devastated the Coalition though. Labor held it by the width of a Tally-Ho and it was expected to be one of the first seats picked up by the Coalition, particularly after the clusterfuck that had been Labor MP Belinda Neal. Labor sandbagged the seat though and kept it in Labor hands. It was a similar story in Lindsay where a swing of 6% to the Coalition left the seat in Labor hands.

To not win Robertson at a minimum was criminal. It was there to be won by the Coalition. The lacklustre performance of the Coalition in New South Wales cost Tony Abbott the opportunity to govern in his own right.

While there will be severe repercussions within the Liberal Party for the poor performance in New South Wales, it will look like backyard soldiers compared to the civil war that the Labor Party is about to wreak upon itself. The only reason heads haven’t rolled and blood hasn’t flooded down Sussex Street has been the remote prospect that Labor may still govern in minority. It hasn’t stopped all the sniping but it has prevented the downright carnage that awaits the ALP if the independents side with the Coalition. The knives are already out for Labor campaign director Karl Bitar, anti-Rudd plotters Mark Arbib and Bill Shorten and former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd. Julia Gillard is no certainty to see out the year with, unbelievably, her credits within the party seemingly used up. Labor looked to have burned through two leaders in the matter of weeks. By the time all is said and done, blood will soak the streets and Labor will be more of a wreck than at any time throughout the Howard Years.

Under any legitimate reasoning, the Coalition deserves the first opportunity to form government. More importantly, all indications are that the Coalition will be given the chance to form government. It has been an amazing achievement by Tony Abbott and one that has him cast historically as a giant of Liberal Party politics forever and a day.