April 21 Racing Selections
Tips for this weekend cover the April 21 meetings at Caulfield, Randwick (featuring the Group 1 Doncaster Handicap) and Eagle Farm. With another second placing last week bringing my ‘one unit’ results for 2012 to eight placings and a solitary winner from 26 tips, it might be time to pull out the patented reverse j…. nah, on second thought I might hold off for now. After all, you never know how much that reverse jinx might be needed in a few weeks’ time.
Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips
Results for April 14 selections
Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price
Scratched – Efficent
Track outside prescribed range – nil
Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Catapulted
Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)
Chasse ($6.50 SP) – second
Raspberries ($8.00) – unplaced
April 14 results: 2 selections, no winners
2012 results: 26 selections, 26 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of $9.00 (POT = -65%), BOB return of $9.50 (POT = -63%)
Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)
Nil
April 14 results: No selections
2012 results: 7 selections, 3.5 units bet, 1 winner, SP return of $5.00 (POT = +43%), BOB return of $5.00 (POT = +43%)
Overall Results
April 14: 2 selections, 2 units bet, no winners
2012: 33 selections, 29.5 units bet, 2 winners, SP return of $14.00 (POT = -53%), BOB return of $14.50 (POT = -51%)
Saturday April 21
Caulfield (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 8 No. 2 Rocking Force
His first-up run was sound when trapped out wide facing the breeze and battling away to be beaten less than two lengths. With regular rider Steven King back on board, a much more favourable barrier (two) and the benefit of that first run to his race fitness I think he’ll give this a big shake. His form last preparation was excellent, highlighted by a win at Listed level on VRC Oaks day and a second to Catapulted in the Group 3 Standish Handicap. A repeat of those efforts would see him winning this.
Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of slow 6 to heavy 10)
Race 6 No. 6 Fibrillation
Often when mares hit top form they can hold it for the remainder of the preparation and thus I’m happy to be with Tim Martin’s grey in this race. After showing great promise last year and a short campaign of solid (if unspectacular) runs in the summer, she has won both of her races this time in. Her last start win at Group 3 level was particularly impressive, given that it came on a good track and she is at her best on rain-affected going. She was won two of her previous four races at Randwick and two of her previous three on slow or heavy going – that’s good enough for me.
Race 7 No. 3 Shoot Out
I really struggled to split he and Rangirangdoo – if the toppy wins, I’ll be more than a touch miffed to have jumped the wrong way yet again. A couple of things sway me his way though, including: (1) a 1.5 kilo advantage at the weights; (2) a better barrier, which may allow him to more easily stalk the speed likely to be set by Gai Waterhouse’s runners; (3) beating Rangi home in the Expressway Stakes, Apollo Stakes and Chipping Norton Stakes before finishing just behind him in the Ranvet Stakes; (4) Group 1 wins at Randwick over this distance and also 2400 metres, proving he can handle a hard slog; and (5) the addition of blinkers to sharpen him up for the drop in distance.
Race 8 No. 14 Nobby Snip
The record of three year-olds in the Galaxy Handicap over the years is excellent and I think he may be untapped. He has five wins and a second from seven starts (his only unplaced run was both his first and last run of that campaign, as well as his only career start to date on a dry track). Niagara has already franked the form of his last start Listed level win at Randwick and he is undefeated on slow or heavy going. He should be up near the lead throughout and take some catching.
Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)
Race 8 No. 2 Triple Honour
His two runs for the Robert Heathcote stable have been excellent; indeed, he was only just denied victory last start over 1400 metres. Now third up from a spell, he carries a race fitness edge over Scenic Shot and Ginga Dude (all of whom I’d expect to head to Hollindale Stakes next start) and a substantial class edge over the remainder of the field. From the inside draw he should be able to trail likely leaders Garozzo and Ginga Dude and have every chance in the run home.
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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo
