August 4 Racing Selections

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on August 2, 2012

Tips for August 4 cover the meetings at Moonee Valley, Canterbury and Doomben.

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for July 28 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – Ready To Rip, Prince Obama

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – nil

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Nil

July 28 results:   No selections

2012 results:  50 selections, 50 units bet, 4 winners, 19 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 31.00 units (POT = -38%), BOB return of 32.80 units (POT = -34%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Warwick Farm – Zakynthos Imprintz ($11.00 SP) – unplaced

Doomben – Lucky Luna ($12.00) – unplaced

July 28 results:  2 selections, no winners

2012 results:  15 selections, 7.5 units bet, 2 winners, 1 third, SP return of 11.00 units (POT = +47%), BOB return of 11.95 units (POT = +59%)

Overall Results

July 28:  2 selections, 1 unit bet, no winners

2012:  65 selections, 57.5 units bet, 6 winners, 20 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 42.00 units (POT = -27%), BOB return of 44.75 units (POT = -22%)

 

Saturday August 4

Moonee Valley (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 6 No. 1 Domesky

  • I keep coming back to his runs behind Dance With Her in Pakenham Cup five starts back (beaten less than three lengths, giving her three kilos) and the Warrnambool Cup three starts back (beaten one length, giving her 1.5 kilos). What price would she go around in this race?
  • He has a win and a third from two previous starts at the track and trip.
  • His last start effort was much better than it looks on paper, given that he came off an eight-week break and dropped 800 metres in distance. This will be much more suitable.

Race 7 No. 1 Eagle Falls

  • Last time he was first up, he won the Group 3 Rubiton Stakes at Caulfield when carrying 58.5 kilos, so a 60-kilo impost for an open handicap is not beyond him.
  • His best efforts are when fresh (six wins and two placings from 14 career starts when first or second-up, two wins and one placing from 18 starts when third-up or further into a campaign).
  • Has two wins from three previous runs over 1000 metres.
  • Has three wins and two placings from six starts at Moonee Valley.
  • Should get a strong early speed and be able to swoop home from the back of the field in the home straight.

 

Canterbury (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 2 No. 7 Our Barney

  • He is a Canterbury specialist, with three wins and two seconds from six starts at the track, included three wins from as many starts over the 1900-metre journey here.
  • His last start effort was sold enough when fourth to Brave The Way at Rosehill (beating home Lethal Arrow, Southern Skye and World Wide).
  • Drawn well in barrier three and continues to stay low down in the weights despite sound recent form.

 

Doomben (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 6 No. 11 The Reveller

  • He has a strong first-up record, including a win when resuming last campaign at Doomben.
  • More broadly, he tends to race best early in a campaign (two wins and three placings from six starts when first or second-up, one win and three placings from seven runs  further into a preparation).
  • He is also something of a Doomben specialist, with three wins and two placings from seven starts at the track, including a win at his only previous run over 1110 metres here.
  • Drawn well in barrier three and gets two kilos off the likely favourite in the mare Liesele (who has yet to win in five races at Doomben and rises four kilos in weight from her last start win).

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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