Beating the Brownlow – 2013

The 2011 “Beating the Brownlow” column was an abject failure; last year was a triumphant return to profit on one of my favourite betting nights of the year. Best of three, anyone? As was the case in 2011 and 2012, a few primers on the methodology for coming up with ratings (tinkered with slightly for this year) and some headline points to note:

Firstly and most importantly, this is not one of those ‘leaked Brownlow votes’ pieces of analysis. Rather, it uses publicly available votes from the media fraternity, along with some adjustments (explained in more detail later on) to estimate a series of ‘Brownlow ratings’, which are then converted into recommended process for various betting markets.

Secondly, despite some of the short prices on offer and cases where a person is seemingly a ‘sure thing’ to win a particular market, no such certainties exist. In 2008, Nick Riewoldt (at odds of $1.20 to top the St Kilda vote) and Dean Cox ($1.30 to top the West Coast vote) were both rolled. Even more amazingly in 2009, Dane Swan (at odds of $1.03 to top the Collingwood vote) was edged out by Scott Pendlebury, while Sam Mitchell (also at odds of $1.03 to top the Hawthorn vote) tied on 13 votes with Brad Sewell. These should act as cautionary tales for anyone thinking of loading up on one of the many short-priced favourites on offer in 2013 or putting them all into a multi.

And finally, whilst the ratings system does its best to take into account discrepancies between the views of journalists awarding player votes and the views of umpires doing same, it is far from definitive.

The four-step process I used for constructing the 2013 ratings is the same as for 2012, so click here if you want to read about it in greater detail. The one thing I will update below is the ‘Brownlow Ratios’ used in step 3:

 

Key players for whom 2008-2012 ‘Brownlow Ratio’ set at maximum 115 per cent

Scott Pendlebury – Collingwood (80 Brownlow votes, 60 ‘journalist votes’)

Nathan Fyfe – Fremantle (27, 20)

Joel Selwood – Geelong (87, 72)

Travis Boak – Port Adelaide (31, 23)

Dustin Martin – Richmond (23, 14)

Daniel Hannebury – Sydney (21, 11)

Matthew Priddis – West Coast (53, 35)

 

Key players for whom 2008-2012 ‘Brownlow Ratio’ set at minimum of 85 per cent

Steve Johnson – Geelong (44 Brownlow votes, 52 ‘journalist votes’)

Luke Hodge – Hawthorn (44, 61)

 

Key players for whom 2008-2012 ‘Brownlow Ratio’ lies between 85 and 115 per cent

Patrick Dangerfield – Adelaide – 103 per cent (41 Brownlow votes, 40 ‘journalist votes’)

Dane Swan – Collingwood – 106 per cent (107, 101)

Jobe Watson – Essendon – 107 per cent (76, 71)

Gary Ablett – Gold Coast – 111 per cent (125, 113)

Sam Mitchell – Hawthorn – 110 per cent (99, 90)

Trent Cotchin – Richmond – 100 per cent (41, 41)

Jarrad McVeigh – Sydney – 103 per cent (31, 30)

Keiren Jack – Sydney – 106 per cent (19, 18)

Josh Kennedy – Sydney – 100 per cent (37, 37)

Ryan Griffen – Western Bulldogs – 95 per cent (39, 41)

 

Converting ratings into prices, and prices into recommended bets

Again, the link to last year’s columnprovides more detail for those with more of a statistical bent, but a summary of the key relationships between some rated prices and what needs to be on offer for me to recommend a bet in 2013 is set out below:

$1.20 rated price; $1.44 required price for a recommended bet

$1.30 rated; $1.69 required

$1.40 rated; $1.96 required

$1.50 rated; $2.25 required

$1.60 rated; $2.56 required

$1.80 rated; $3.24 required

$2.00 rated; $4.00 required

$2.50 rated; $6.25 required

$3.00 rated; $9.00 required

$3.50 rated; $12.25 required

$4.00 rated; $16.00 required

 

2013 Brownlow Ratings and recommended bets

Okay, we’ve gone through the details of how these ratings have been constructed, now let’s get to the good stuff. Who should you back and at what prices should you do so? Let’s start with the overall winner, top-five and Round 10 leader, before moving into the team-by-team and finally the custom group markets (I’m ditching head-to-head markets as a betting proposition this year).

 

Overall winner (* indicates a player ineligible to win the Brownlow Medal due to suspension)

Ratings:  Ablett 27.5, Selwood 27.5, Swan 24.0, *Fyfe 22.0, Pendlebury 20.5, Dangerfield 19.0, Mitchell 19.0, Boak 18.5, Cotchin 18.0, McVeigh 18.0, Hannebury 17.5, Watson 17.0

Rated odds:  Ablett $3, Selwood $3, Swan $6, Pendlebury $21, Dangerfield $41, Mitchell $41, Boak $61, Cotchin $101, McVeigh $101, Hannebury $151, Watson $151

Summary: Ablett is well under the odds at around the $1.60 to $1.75 mark (depending on your bookmaker of choice). Selwood is available in some markets at $4.50 and whilst that appears over the odds for mine, it is not sufficient for a recommended bet.

Recommended bet:  Nil

 

Top five

Ratings:  As above

Rated odds (I’m going to pencil in Ablett and Selwood, so these prices are for the remaining three spots):  Swan $1.33, Pendlebury $2.40, Dangerfield $3.50, Mitchell $3.50, Boak $4.50, Cotchin $6, McVeigh $6, Hannebury $7, Watson $7

Recommended bet:  Much as with the overall winner market, very little to write home about here. Swan is close to being a recommended bet at the best available price of $1.70 (Centrebet), but not quite there.

 

Round 10 leader

Ratings:  Ablett 17.0, Watson 14.0, Dangerfield 12.0, Barlow 12.0, McVeigh 12.0, Hannebury 11.0, Fyfe 10,0, Mitchell 10.0, Boak 10.0

Rated odds:  Ablett $2.10, Watson $4.50, Dangerfield $16, Barlow $16, McVeigh $16, Hannebury $26, Fyfe $51, Mitchell $51, Boak $51

Summary: Ablett has been well and truly found in this market at around the $1.60 quote and looks under the odds again for mine. Watson is a shade of value at the $6 currently on offer, but nothing greatly appeals in this market.

Recommended bet: Nil

 

Most votes from each club

As indicated very early on in this column, occasionally a red-hot favourite in a club market can be defeated. As a consequence there are certain players whom while deserving of such marked favouritism, do not warrant any value at quotes of $1.10 and shorter and thus should not be wagered upon, nor should they be taken on. These favourites are listed below:

Essendon:  Jobe Watson (rating of 17.0, next best Essendon rating of 9.0)

Geelong:  Joel Selwood (rating of 27.5, next best Gold Coast rating of 16.0)

Gold Coast:  Gary Ablett (rating of 27.5, next best Gold Coast rating of 5.5)

West Coast:  Matt Priddis (rating of 16.0, next best West Coast rating of 7.0)

In addition, there are a number of club markets with key players taken out being offered by bookmakers this year, so ratings will also be provided below for the majority of these scenarios.

However, there are also a number of team markets where there will be very few votes to go around, and thus betting would be a riskier proposition than is desirable. As a consequence, no ratings have been provided for the Gold Coast (without Ablett) and Melbourne markets.

Adelaide

Ratings: Dangerfield 19.0 (rated odds of $1.60), Sloane 15.5 ($2.70)

Recommended Bet: Fun fact – Rory Sloane won the Adelaide best and fairest this year, with Dangerfield finishing third. While the Brownlow is quite a different beast (especially for a side that missed the finals), the fact that Sloane can be found at $12 while Dangerfield is around the $1.01 to $1.02 mark seems a bit off.

Brisbane

Ratings: Rockliff 8.5 ($3), Hanley 8.0 ($3.50), Leuenberger 8.0 ($5 – ruckman have a history of being snubbed in Brownlow counts in recent years)

Carlton

Ratings:  Murphy 10.0 ($2.80), McLean 9.5 ($3.20), Henderson 7.5 ($6)

Collingwood

Ratings:  Swan 24.0 ($1.70), Pendlebury 20.5 ($2.60)

Fremantle

Ratings:  Fyfe 22.0 ($1.70), Mundy 15.5 ($4.20), Barlow 14.5 ($5.50)

Geelong

Ratings without Selwood: Johnson 16.0 ($1.80), Stokes 12.0 ($3.50), Taylor 10.0 ($7)

Greater Western Sydney

Ratings: Cameron 9.5 ($1.70), Ward 7.0 ($3.20), Shiel 5.0 ($10)

Hawthorn

Ratings:  Mitchell 19.0 ($1.80), Hodge 14.0 ($5), Roughead 14.0 ($5)

North Melbourne

Ratings:  Wells 8.5 ($3.80), Ziebell 8.0 ($4.20), Hansen 6.5 ($6.50), Swallow 6.0 ($9), Harvey 6.0 ($9)

Recommended Bet: This is a bit of speculative throw at the stumps, and he’s unlikely to receive the three votes in any match this season, but Lachie Hansen sits within the “any other North Melbourne player” market at odds of $51 with Centrebet. I have to have a small nibble at such a price.

Port Adelaide

Ratings:  Boak 18.5 ($1.50), Wingard 14.0 ($3)

Recommended Bet: While Boak has had an outstanding year as captain and deserves favouritism, the $1.10 to $1.15 on offer is well and truly under the odds. Wingard has been a revelation this and importantly, has often played well in the matches the Power have won (a key element of accumulating votes). He can be bet at odds of $10.

Richmond

Ratings:  Cotchin 18.0 ($1.80), Martin 16.0 ($2.40)

St Kilda

Ratings:  Montagna 13.0 ($1.60), Riewoldt 9.0 ($3.80), Steven 7.0 ($10)

Sydney

Ratings: McVeigh 18.0 ($3), Hannebury 17.5 ($3.20), Jack 15.5 ($4.20), Kennedy 12.0 ($9)

Recommended bet: Jarrad McVeigh is being offered at $12 in some markets to top the Sydney vote in a legitimate four-horse race where I mark him the slight favourite. That will do nicely.

Western Bulldogs

Ratings: Liberatore 15.0 ($1.90), Griffen 14.0 ($2.10)

Recommended Bet: Last year Griffen rolled the unbackable favourite in Matthew Boyd. This year, I think the same principle applies (a two-way market where the odds should be near enough even money either way), but with Griffen now playing the part of the prohibitive favourite. You can get as much as $6.50 about Liberatore – that represents tremendous value.

 

Summary of recommended bets

1 unit on Rory Sloane to receive the most votes for Adelaide at $12 (Centrebet)

0.25 units on “any other North Melbourne player” to receive the most votes for North Melbourne at $51 (Centrebet)

1 unit on Chad Wingard to receive the most votes for Port Adelaide at $10 (Sportsbet)

1 unit on Jarrad McVeigh to receive the most votes for Sydney at $12 (Sportsbet)

2 units on Tom Liberatore to receive the most votes for Western Bulldogs at $6.50 (Sportsbet)

 

Thanks to Morne de Klerk/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo