Beating the Brownlow – 2014

The initial “Beating the Brownlow” column for Making The Nut in 2011 was an abject failure; but 2012 and 2013 both brought tidy PoT (Profit on Turnover) figures of 30% and 24% respectively. And so we turn to the 2014 markets with renewed enthusiasm.

As was the case for the past three years, a few primers on the methodology for coming up with ratings (tinkered with slightly for this year) and some headline points to note:

Firstly and most importantly, this is not one of those ‘leaked Brownlow votes’ pieces of analysis. Rather, it uses publicly available votes from the media fraternity, along with some adjustments (explained in more detail later on) to estimate a series of ‘Brownlow ratings’, which are then converted into recommended process for various betting markets.

Just to reiterate, for those who continue to come forward with abuse about how I could possibly allocate votes to some players and not others, they’re not my personal votes.

I use other people’s votes.

THEY. ARE . NOT. MY. VOTES. GOT IT? GOOD.

Secondly, despite some of the short prices on offer and cases where a person is seemingly a ‘sure thing’ to win a particular market, no such certainties exist. In 2009, Dane Swan (at odds of $1.03 to top the Collingwood vote) was edged out by Scott Pendlebury, while Sam Mitchell (also at odds of $1.03 to top the Hawthorn vote) tied on 13 votes with Brad Sewell. These should act as cautionary tales for anyone thinking of loading up on one of the many short-priced favourites on offer in 2013 or putting them all into a multi.

And finally, whilst the ratings system does its best to take into account discrepancies between the views of journalists awarding player votes and the views of umpires doing same, it is far from definitive.

The four-step process I used for constructing the 2014 ratings is essentially the same as for 2012 and 2013, so click here if you want to read about it in greater detail. The one difference is that this year I’m using two sources of votes from the media fraternity, rather than one set, in the hope of smoothing out a little of the variability in opinions (and consequential vote allocations).

Converting ratings into prices, and prices into recommended bets

Again, the link to the 2012 column provides more detail for those with more of a statistical bent, but a summary of the key relationships between some rated prices and required price on offer for me to recommend a bet in 2014 is set out below:

$1.20 rated price; $1.44 required price for a recommended bet

$1.30 rated; $1.69 required

$1.40 rated; $1.96 required

$1.50 rated; $2.25 required

$1.60 rated; $2.56 required

$1.80 rated; $3.24 required

$2.00 rated; $4.00 required

$2.50 rated; $6.25 required

$3.00 rated; $9.00 required

$3.50 rated; $12.25 required

$4.00 rated; $16.00 required

 

2014 Brownlow Ratings and recommended bets

Okay, we’ve gone through the details of how these ratings have been constructed, now let’s get to the good stuff. Who should you back and at what prices should you do so? Let’s start with the overall winner and top-five, before moving into the team-by-team and finally the custom group markets (I’ve ditched head-to-head markets as a betting proposition).

Overall winner (* indicates a player ineligible to win the Brownlow Medal due to suspension)

Ratings:  Selwood 23.0, *Fyfe 22.5, Pendlebury 22.5, Kennedy 22.0, Ablett 21.0, Priddis 19.0, Cotchin 18.5, Lewis 17.5, Gray 16.5, *Mundy 16.0, Boak 16.0, Franklin 15.5, Thompson (Adel) 15.0, *Rockliff 14.5, Dangerfield 14.5, Heppell 14.5

Rated odds:  Selwood $5.50, Pendlebury $6, Kennedy $6.50, Ablett $7.50, Priddis $12, Cotchin $14, Lewis $21, Gray $26, Boak $31, Franklin $41, Thompson (Adel) $51, Dangerfield $81, Heppell $81

Summary: The three favourites in most markets – Selwood, Ablett and Gray – are all well under the odds for mine. There are a number of players who appear over the odds for mine (Pendlebury available at up to $15, Kennedy at up to $11, Cotchin at up to $34 being the key three), but the overlays are not sufficient for a recommended bet.

Recommended bet:  Nil

 

Top five

Ratings:  As above

Rated odds:  Selwood $1.60, Fyfe $1.70, Pendlebury $1.70, Kennedy $1.80, Ablett $1.90, Priddis $2.50, Cotchin $2.80, Lewis $3.80, Gray $4.50, Mundy $5, Boak $5, Franklin $6.50, Rockliff $8, Thompson (Adel) $8, Dangerfield $15, Heppell $15

Recommended bet:  Scott Pendlebury was available at $3.00 for a top-5 finish at Centrebet as of Saturday 6 September, which is good enough for a bet.

It’s also very important here to check whether the ineligible players (Fyfe, Rockliff et al) are counted in ‘top 5’ markets with your bookmaker of choice. If they are excluded, you can reduce the prices listed for everyone else above by around 15-20 per cent. Which would bring Pendlebury into a rating of around $1.45-1.50, and thus mean a price in the $2.10-2.25 range would be sufficient.

Most votes from each club

As indicated very early on in this column, occasionally a red-hot favourite in a club market can be defeated. As a consequence there are certain players whom while deserving of such marked favouritism, do not warrant any value at quotes of $1.10 and shorter and thus should not be wagered upon, nor should they be taken on. These favourites are listed below:

Brisbane:  Tom Rockliff (rating of 14.5, next best Brisbane rating of 8.5)

Geelong:  Joel Selwood (rating of 23.0, next best Gold Coast rating of 8.5)

Gold Coast:  Gary Ablett (rating of 21.0, next best Gold Coast rating of 12.0)

West Coast:  Matt Priddis (rating of 19.0, next best West Coast rating of 10.5)

In addition, there are a number of club markets with key players taken out being offered by bookmakers this year, so ratings will also be provided below for the majority of these scenarios.

However, there are also a number of team markets where there will be very few votes to go around, and thus betting would be a riskier proposition than is desirable. In particular, this will mean that recommendations might need to be softened a bit relative to the pure numbers when evaluating teams such as St Kilda, Melbourne and GWS.

Adelaide

Ratings: Thompson 15 (rated odds of $2.30), Dangerfield 13.5 ($2.70), Sloane 11 ($7)

Recommended Bet: Remember when almost everyone had Dangerfield topping the Adelaide vote easily in 2012? Thompson rolled him that year 25-23. $1.90 is the best price on the board for Dangerfield this season, but you can get Thompson at $7 with Sportsbet. Sign me up.

Brisbane

Ratings: Rockliff 14.5 ($1.20), Hanley 8.5 ($6),

Carlton

Ratings:  Gibbs 12 ($2), Judd 8.5 ($4.80) Murphy 8.5 ($4.80), Yarran 7 ($12)

Collingwood

Ratings:  Pendlebury 22.5 ($1.17), Beams 13 ($7)

Essendon

Ratings:  Heppell 13.5 ($1.28), Watson 7.5 ($9), Zaharakis 7 ($18), Hibberd 7 ($18)

Fremantle

Ratings:  Fyfe 22.5 ($1.12), Mundy 15.5 ($9)

Ratings without Fyfe:  Mundy 15.5 ($1.55), Barlow 8.5 ($9), Hill 8.5 ($9), Ballantyne 8.5 ($9)

Recommended Bet: Lost in the noise of a huge year for Nat Fyfe – another very strong season from David Mundy. Umps love him too, based on the last couple of seasons. The $2.50 available at TAB Sportsbet for him to top the Dockers’ vote (excluding Fyfe) is excellent value.

Geelong

Ratings without Selwood: Johnson 8.5 ($3.20), Hawkins 8.5 ($3.20), Bartel 7 ($5), Duncan 5.5 ($10), Taylor 5 ($15)

Recommended Bet: I’m always a little nervous of how umpires will view the efforts of key forwards, but $13 for Hawkins to top the Geelong vote (ex-Selwood) at Luxbet is more than generous enough a price to find out.

Greater Western Sydney

Ratings: Ward 9.5 ($2.20), Mumford 8 ($3), Greene 5.5 ($8)

Hawthorn

Ratings:  Lewis 17.5 ($1.90), Mitchell 12.5 ($4), Roughead 10.5 ($8), Hodge 10 ($9)

Melbourne

Ratings:  Jones 10.5 ($2), Tyson 10.5 ($2),

North Melbourne

Ratings:  Harvey 10.5 ($3), Dal Santo 8.5 ($4.60), Greenwood 7.5 ($6.50), Cunnington 7.5 ($6.50), Gibson 6.5 ($11)

Port Adelaide

Ratings:  Gray 16.5 ($1.90), Boak 16.0 ($2.10)

Recommended Bet: I know that the opening spiel said that a player rated at $2 required odds of $4 to be a bet, but the $2.10-rated Boak being offered at $4 by Sportsbet is worth a serious look. I’m adding him to my recommended bet list – because I’m such a rebel that I won’t even play by my own rules.

Richmond

Ratings:  Cotchin 18.5 ($1.26), Martin 10.5 ($8), Deledio 10 ($10)

St Kilda

Ratings: Riewoldt 10.0 ($1.70), Hayes 7.5 ($3.40), Montagna 6 ($8.50)

Ratings without Riewoldt:  Hayes 7.5 ($1.60), Montagna 6 ($2.60),

Recommended Bet: Umpires love Lenny. Everyone loves Lenny. This column, and my Brownlow betting history in years gone by, loves Lenny. As tempting as the $21 quoted by some bookies for the ‘all-in’ market is, the small sample size of votes and the extremely short quote (in some instances $1.01!) about Riewoldt makes me hesitate. But the $2.75 at TAB Sportsbet about Hayes beating home everyone else at St Kilda has received some of my cash.

Sydney

Ratings: Kennedy 22 ($1.50), Franklin 15.5 ($3.40), Hannebury 11 ($17)

Western Bulldogs

Ratings: Macrae 9.5 ($3.20), Boyd 9 ($3.50), Griffen 8.5($4), Liberatore 6.5 ($7)

West Coast

Ratings without Priddis: Shuey 10.5 ($2.10), Kennedy 9 ($2.80), Naitanui 6.5 ($8), Le Cras 5.5 ($21)

Recommended Bet: More being a rebel here, backing a $2.10-rated player (Shuey) at $4 in the Luxbet market where Priddis is excluded.

 

Summary of recommended bets

1 unit on Scott Pendlebury to finish top-five overall at $3 (Centrebet)

0.5 units on Scott Thompson to receive the most votes for Adelaide at $7 (Sportsbet)

1 unit on David Mundy to receive the most votes for Fremantle (excluding Nathan Fyfe) at $2.50 ( TAB Sportsbet)

0.25 units on Tom Hawkins to receive the most votes for Geelong (excluding Joel Selwood) at $13 (Luxbet)

1 unit on Travis Boak to receive the most votes for Port Adelaide at $4 (Sportsbet)

1 unit on Lenny Hayes to receive the most votes for St Kilda (excluding Nick Riewoldt) at $2.75 (TAB Sportsbet)

1 unit on Luke Shuey to receive the most votes for West Coast Eagles (excluding Matt Priddis) at $4 (Luxbet)

Total spend = 5.75 units (so $115 if you consider one unit to be $20, $575 if you consider 1 unit to be $100, or scale accordingly to your unit conversion of choice).

Two winners from the seven will be enough to roughly break even, while three or more winners from the seven bets would make for a nice profit. Good luck everyone!

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Since I can’t seem to put a new comment in to load results (not sure why), will add the summary here:

Won on Boak (1 unit at $4) topping the Port vote, and dead-heated with Mundy topping Freo (ex-Fyfe), thus receiving half of the $2.50 quote for 1 unit.

Shuey led the West Coast (ex-Priddis) market until Kennedy nutted him in the final round. Bugger.

So a 5.75 unit spend for 5.25 units back.