Home Is Whetre the Heart Is

Last week I discussed the home-town bump that propelled Kevin Rudd to the prime ministership and Labor to government as Queensland gave Labor an additional nine seats at the last election on the back of some huge swings. It was quite apparent that Rudd being a Queenslander drove much of the support Labor received in what has traditionally been a Coalition state and Labor’s worst performing state.

Homerism is not confined to Queensland. While it is most prevalent in the Sunshine State, homerism is a hallmark of every state in Australia and is more of a factor in smaller states than in the larger ones. It is the little-brother mentality and it could prove critical to the outcome on August 22.

Good news has been hard to come by for Julia Gillard this election. She has been whipped in the debate, smashed in the polls and forced to desperately reinvigorate her fledgling campaign by telling the electorate that the “Real Julia” will be on show for the remainder of the campaign. Tony Abbott has made significant headway in Queensland, New South Wales and Western Australia. His rap is resonating in the key rugby league states, with the oldies, the miners and working parents. He has won the battle over the high ground on economic management and he is coming across as the more genuine of the two candidates.

Gillard and Labor did receive some good news from a recent Newspoll though with the survey suggesting the ALP had a 56-44 lead in Gillard’s home state of South Australia. South Australia has traditionally viewed itself as a progressive state but the ALP has not had a majority of seats in South Australia since 1990 until gaining a 6-5 edge in 2007 when Labor picked up the seats of Makin, Kingston and Wakefield. 2007 was also the first time that Labor picked up better than 50% of the two-party preferred in South Australia since 1987 and it was the first time Labor matched its national support in South Australia since 1990.

That strong support from 2007 has seemingly been built upon with the elevation of local girl Julia Gillard to the top job.

While Gillard and the ALP will be pleased that Labor is polling so well in South Australia, they will be well aware that this will not prove particularly helpful in holding onto government. The reasons are that only two of the eleven South Australian seats are contestable at the upcoming election.

Labor are in no danger of losing any of the six seats they hold given current polling and the home-town bump expected in South Australia for Gillard. Port Adelaide is a working class heartland with a near 20% margin for Labor. The former marginal seat of Adelaide was won by Kate Ellis in 2004 and her sharp career ascent combined with her youth has helped turned the seat into an 8.5% cushion for the ALP. Hindmarsh is traditionally an ALP seat that only went blue during the early Howard years and with a 5.1% margin is in no danger of changing hands. Wakefield is at 6.6% and with the Coalition candidate in the air force and posted overseas then nothing will be changing in that electorate. Makin is somewhat of a modern bellwether seat but is 7.7% in favour of Labor and Tony Zappia has proved popular. Labor’s margin in Kingston is only 4.4% but a recent local poll has Labor ahead 67-33 and even though the poll is considered somewhat of a rogue, it does show that the Coalition are a long way off the pace at present.

In these safe Labor seats, only two small-value bets exist. $1.15 is available on Steve Georganas (ALP) winning Hindmarsh at Sportingbet. He rates $1.08 so a small overlay is there. A slightly better wager exists in Kingston with Sportingbet offering $1.25 on Labor member Amanda Rishworth retaining her seat. She is a $1.05 shot by my calculations.

Similarly, the Coalition have three safe seats that even a significant swing to Labor, something considered highly unlikely, won’t even affect. Barker has a 9.5% margin and has always been in conservative hands. Grey is only 4.4% but has been in Coalition hands since 1993 and the predominantly rural electorate will likely swing back out after the high tide of 2007. Mayo is the former seat of Alexander Downer and stuck Coalition last time at 7.1% after a 4.7% swing against the Coalition.

Bets exist in both Barker and Grey. Centrebet is offering $1.08 about the Coalition holding Barker and all the agencies have $1.10 about the Coalition holding Grey. Betting on the Coalition should be $1.01 in each seat.

That leaves two seats to play with in South Australia. Labor are desperately trying to offset probable losses in Queensland and New South Wales by winning Boothby and Sturt in South Australia. The Coalition, however, are in the box seat in both electorates. If the Coalition maintains their advantage then they will go a long way to sending Tony Abbott to the Lodge

Boothby was a seat that should have gone to Labor in 2007 except the ALP blew it by preselecting Nicole Cornes, wife of former Crows coach Graeme Cornes and a candidate so completely unqualified that the Coalition managed to buck the national and state trend away by retaining the seat with Boothby giving Labor its smallest swing in the country. The Liberal Party now holds the seat by a margin of 2.9% with $1.48 the best price available on them retaining the seat while $2.75 is top price on Labor. The common belief is that 2007 was Labor’s chance and the embarrassment caused by Cornes will have a residual effect this time around.

No bet in Boothby exists but it is certainly the Coalition’s to lose. Current polling numbers don’t suggest there will be anywhere near a 3% swing towards Labor in South Australia and even a homer push should see Boothby stay in Coalition hands.

Sturt is a seat somewhat more complicated. Held by rising Coalition front bencher Christopher Pyne, Manager of Opposition Business and darling of the party moderates, he kept the seat by only 0.9% in 2007 as his safety net diminished from 8.5% in 2001 and 6.8% in 2007. Pyne is a South Australian-type Liberal and those types have tended to do well in the electorate and the seat has traditionally been a Coalition one, both of which work in his favour but neither of which match allegations that the ALP candidate for the seat, Rick Sarre, wrote a letter of reference for a convicted paedophile in 2007. Despite the small margin for the Coalition and the polling suggesting strong support for Labor, a local backlash is expected against Labor.

I initially marked this seat as $1.45 to the Liberals but after reassessing post-allegations I think the $1.38 available on Pyne at Sportingbet is well over the odds. It is doubtful Labor will devote too many resources to Sturt now these allegations have surfaced and Pyne has been heavily seen over the last three years.

Polling suggests South Australia is pushing heavily for a Gillard victory. It is hard to see Labor improving on their 2007 performance though. They exceeded their natural position in the state and now have nowhere to go. Gillard’s leadership should ensure Labor solidifies their gains from 2007 but any further inroads seem unlikely.

Recommended Bets

Hindmarsh-ALP to win at $1.15 (Sportingbet)

Kingston-ALP to win at $1.25 (Sportingbet)

Barker-Coalition to win at $1.08 (Centrebet)

Grey-Coalition to win at $1.10 (Centrebet)

Sturt-Coalition to win at $1.38 (Sportingbet)