How the West was Won: Why Western Sydney and the Central Coast are the Key Battlegrounds of Election 2010

Such is the disaffection with the state Labor Government in New South Wales, the western Sydney seat of Penrith went Liberal on the back of a 25.5% swing. The result, rightly, terrified Labor Party officials who understand a wipeout in Western Sydney will see them lose Government. Winning western Sydney is as important to Labor as it is to the AFL. It is not just about football out west.

Along with the Central Coast, which has a litany of marginal seats, western Sydney will most likely determine who forms Government. Outside of Queensland and New South Wales, there are no more than ten seats up for grabs and the likely result across the rest of Australia will be Labor losing two seats with Hasluck going Liberal and Melbourne going Green. Queensland will be bad for Labor considering the loss of Rudd. It is in New South Wales that Labor will cling to power if they indeed do.

Expect the unpopularity of state Labor to impact on this election just as the unpopularity of state Labor in Queensland and the Northern Territory will play some role in those jurisdictions. It is measuring that impact that will be key to figuring who will win Election 2010 and the reaction against the State Government will be seen most in Western Sydney, with voters considered highly volatile, seats being exceptionally marginal and infrastructure perceived as poor.

In the last poll taken on June 30, the state ALP vote was down to 25% with expectations being they could suffer a defeat bigger in 2011 than that of Jack Lang in the thirties. This disaffection will almost certainly leak into a move against Labor at the coming federal election just as it did in Tasmania in the eighties when the Franklin Dams dispute saw Robin Gray and the Liberals hold power from 1982-89 while the Liberals dominated federally in the traditional ALP heartland. The same was true in Victoria in 1990 when the collapse of the ALP vote was a direct result of severe hostility to the Cain Government. Labor won a higher than national vote in 1990 and 1993 in New South Wales when campaigning against the unpopular Greiner and Fahey state Governments. Labor has every reason to be concerned that their 53.7% two-party share is in danger of falling and with it as many as eight seats along with the two they now notionally hold.

In Western Sydney, it is bacon delivery day every day as Australia looks on to see who the people of Lindsay, Macquarie, Macarthur and Greenway will install as Prime Minister. Brookvale Oval cannot get an upgrade yet $3 million is going to a new grandstand for NSW Cup team Windsor. Astonishing but totally believable. Western Sydney is where it will be won and lost.

Of the four key seats, Greenway is probably the most clear-cut thanks to a redistribution that added 10.2% to the Labor vote and now sees the Liberal held seat as a relatively safe notional Labor one. Sitting MP Louise Markus will now run in Macquarie, which now captures much of the old Greenway. The loss of much of the Hills district and the inclusion of Parramatta makes this almost a certain Labor gain, making up for the abolished seat of Reid they lost in the transfer of a seat to Queensland. The $1.30 available on Labor candidate Michelle Rowland is a bet with the pork barrelling likely to ensure Labor doesn’t suffer the 5.1% swing required to lose Greenway.  

Macarthur is another seat that is now Liberal held but notionally Labor thanks to a redistribution that boosts the ALP vote by 1.2%. The Coalition have had some major preselection problems with sitting member Pat Farmer missing out when moving from within the seat to Mosman. The seat was held by the party of Government from 1949 until 2007 when Farmer upset the trend. The open contest should see it return to the party of Government this time around giving Labor’s Nick Bleasdale has a rightful claim to favouritism after just missing out last time. Betting is fairly wild in this with the best price on the Coalition being $1.90 and the best price Labor being $2.00. My initial thoughts were Labor here at $2.00 even though the Coalition have been bet in but recent polling notes from within the Coalition have them “winning this seat easily” and with the expected backlash against Labor in the region the $1.90 on the Liberal Party at Sportingbet is a play.

Macquarie covers the Blue Mountains and the Hills District of Western Sydney and despite currently being held by Labor at a margin of 0.1% is expected to go to Liberal MP for Greenway Louise Markus. Redistribution has added 6.7% to the Liberal vote and is more in line with the old markings that has seen Labor hold the seat only once from 1993-96. Labor also goes into this without incumbent Bob Debus. The Liberals are expecting to win this seat as an exchange for Greenway. $1.60 at Sportingbet is a very good price for the Western Sydney seat most likely to go blue. The Coalition will reclaim Macquarie this time around.

Lindsay has received plenty of attention this time around despite it requiring a 6.3% swing to return to Coalition hands as it was the scene of a massive swing against Labor in a state by-election that topped 25%. The margin for Lindsay is artificially large after a controversial leaflet scandal and the retirement of sitting MP Jackie Kelly led to a wipeout in 2007. The seat is far closer than the margin suggests with a redistribution adding a number of Liberal booths. Favouritism is split with bookmakers unable to find a clear favourite. $1.90 at Centrebet is the best price available for Labor while $2.10 at Sportsbet is available on a Coalition win in Lindsay. The Coalition have a lead in recent polls and are a bet at $2.10

The Central Coast is very similar to Western Sydney in that the demographics of the region are diverse, the requirement for infrastructure high and the primary issue outside of infrastructure being mortgage repayments.

At present, the Coalition hold the northernmost seat of Paterson by 0.6% while Labor hold Dobell by 3.9% and Robertson by 0.1%. Bob Baldwin is as strong a local candidate as the Coalition have anywhere and he has been strong in holding Paterson even after the disaster of 2007. The electorate skews old and Baldwin is a local man and it is tough to see Labor getting this seat back in 2010. The $1.38 being bet at Sportsbet is a wager.

Similarly, the seat of Dobell should remain in Labor hands despite being a traditional marginal and one that tends to behave oddly. The Coalition have had preselection problems and the margin of 3.9% should be enough for Craig Thompson to hang on. The concern about a massive backlash against Labor makes this seat a no-bet even with Labor at $1.55 but the seat has to be marked as Labor’s unless this election proves a complete whitewash for the ALP.

The most fascinating seat on the Central Coast is that of Robertson, currently held by controversial Labor figure Belinda Neal. Neal will not contest the upcoming election after losing preselection. She has been a major thorn in the side of Labor as she lurched from one controversy to the next in her time in Parliament in what Poll Bludger has called “a memorable political soap opera”. With a margin of only 0.1%, she would almost certainly have lost the seat had she recontested at this election. Robertson looks likely lost for Labor at any rate. The Liberal Party is reportedly extremely confident and local polling when Neal was the assumed candidate suggested a 20% swing against Labor. With the state Labor concerns and Neal’s close links to same, Robertson will almost surely fall into Coalition hands. $1.38 is the best price available on the Coalition and while that is a little too short to jump into it does show the long road Labor has to claw back the seat.

The marginal seats not considered to be in Western Sydney or the Central Coast are Calare in the Central West, Eden-Monaro and Gilmore on the South Coast, Page and Cowper on the North Coast, Hughes on the southern edge of Sydney and Bennelong on the lower north shore of Sydney.

Calare will remain in Coalition hands with the popular John Cobb likely to hold the seat despite a redistribution that has taken away 8.6% of his margin. Calare is a “false marginal” and the $1.16 on offer the incumbent is a play.

The South Coast seats of Gilmore and Eden-Monaro are always interesting. Gilmore is a Liberal held seat that has become notionally Labor after a significant redistribution. Incumbent Joanna Gash is expected to hold on, however, with preselection problems hurting Labor and polling has the Coalition holding onto the seat with some ease. I am becoming increasingly confident that this will be a big Coalition win so the $1.40 at Sportsbet is a play. Eden-Monaro is a bellwether seat that has gone with the Government since 1972 and this doesn’t bode well for the Coalition, who are not expecting to win the seat and will have to form government for the first time in nearly four decades without Eden-Monaro if they are to win. Antony Green notes that the uniform swing needed to win government is the swing needed to win Eden-Monaro but the Coalition have fielded a weak candidate and Mike Kelly has performed strongly. $1.38 is being bet about Labor holding the seat and that is probably about right. I anticipate a Labor win in Eden-Monaro.

The North Coast seats of Page and Cowper have become increasingly marginal over the last two decades and nothing has changed this time around though both incumbents are expected to be returned. Janelle Saffin is rated a $1.50 shot to retain Page for Labor with betting about right there. She is vulnerable as rural seats aren’t traditionally Labor’s go but Saffin has a high profile and these northern seats are less likely to be influenced by state Labor politics. Cowper is held by the Nationals by only 1.2% but the Labor candidate is a two-time loser in the electorate and Labor probably took what they could last time. The $1.30 available on the Coalition to win Cowper is now a play.

The Coalition are incredibly worried about holding onto Hughes regardless of the statewide bump expected. Redistributions have made the seat marginal for the first time since 1996 and the retirement of Danna Vale opens this seat right up. Polling has not been good for the Coalition and betting has this one tight with $1.80 available on the Coalition and $2.05 available Labor. This is a critical seat but one few have any idea on. Absolutely no bet.

Bennelong saw the heartbreaking defeat of John Howard last election night with ABC journalist Maxine McKew winning the seat off the incumbent Prime Minister. She was lauded as a hero that night but has achieved little since and this time comes up against tennis legend John Alexander. Alexander certainly has a chance but the pork barrelling of Labor will likely see the seat retained. The best being bet about McKew is $1.66 while $2.24 is available Alexander. No bet but this should prove a seat worth watching as any substantial statewide move to the Coalition will see Bennelong fall.

Onto the safe seats, it looks like 34 of the 48 seats are secure.

Two seats will be retained by popular independents with Tony Windsor beloved in New England and Rob Oakeshott personifying safety in Lyne with the duo holding the safest seats in opposition. No bets exist in either electorate but there is some interest in these two as they could determine who governs Australia if parliament is hung. Along with Bob Katter, who will almost definitely move to install Tony Abbott as Prime Minister, and potentially Adam Brandt, the Melbourne Green who would certainly push for a Gillard Government, the two NSW independents have a very real possibility of determining who will form a minority government.

Labor has a safe hold on 20 seats throughout the ALP heartland of the Hunter, Illawarra and Sydney from the inner city down to the south-west where the working class dominate demographics. There are no bets in any of these seats with the $1.11 bet about Justine Elliott in Richmond probably the best value but that has been a traditionally marginal seat and it may cause a few heart palpitations taking the shorts up there. Similarly, Tanya Plibersek, the darling of the left, is $1.09 to win Sydney as she faces a challenge from the Greens and while she should win the seat it is not worth rolling the dice at the short odds.

There is far greater value among the 12 Coalition safe seats, which are predominantly rural and on Sydney’s north shore and northern beaches. Parkes is a safe National haunt and Mark Coulton will win the seat back making the $1.05 on offer at Sportsbet a generous gift. Ditto for the Riverina where the Coalition will retain the seat. Sportsbet are again offering $1.05. Malcolm Turnbull is $1.10 to win Wentworth and while that is just short of a bet he will take the seat with Turnbull one of only four Liberals to win a swing last election.

An election cannot be won without carrying New South Wales and New South Wales cannot be won without carrying Western Sydney and the Central Coast. Not since 1961 has a party won government without winning a majority of seats in New South Wales. That means the Coalition will need to pick up 9 seats, boosting their count from 15 to 24. At present I have them on 21, holding Calare, Cowper, Gilmore, Paterson and possibly Hughes while picking up Lindsay, Macarthur, Macquarie and Robertson. That leaves the ALP in a winning position in NSW but if there is any move against Labor in Bennelong, Dobell, Eden-Monaro and/or Dobell then Gillard is in a lot of strife. New South Wales is too close to call at present but expect the Coalition to make significant inroads north of the Murray and south of the Tweed.

Recommended Bets

Calare: Coalition at $1.16 (Centrebet)

Cowper: Coalition at $1.30 (Sportingbet)

Gilmore: Coalition at $1.40 (Sportsbet)

Greenway: ALP at $1.30 (Sportingbet)

Lindsay: Coalition at $2.10 (Sportsbet)

Macarthur: Coalition at $1.90 (Sportingbet)

Macquarie: Coalition at $1.60 (Sportingbet)

Parkes: Coalition at $1.05 (Sportsbet)

Paterson: Coalition at $1.38 (Sportsbet)

Riverina: Coalition at $1.05 (Sportsbet)