June 16 Racing Selections

June 16 tips cover the meetings at Flemington, Rosehill, Ipswich (featuring the Listed Ipswich Cup) and Morphettville. In a vain attempt to actually come up with a winning recommended bet, I’ve expanded the list of tips significantly this week – a move that is likely to bring either glory or disaster, with very few outcomes in between.

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for June 9 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – Gold Sand

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Alberton Park

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Eagle Farm – Adebisi ($7.50 SP) – unplaced

Eagle Farm – Wealth Princess ($7.00) – unplaced

June 9 results:   2 selections, no winners

2012 results:  36 selections, 36 units bet, 1 winner, 14 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 9.00 units (POT = -75%), BOB return of 9.50 units (POT = -74%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

June 9 results:  No selections, no winners

2012 results:  11 selections, 5.5 units bet, 1 winner, 1 third, SP return of 5.00 units (POT = -9%), BOB return of 5.00 units (POT = -9%)

Overall Results

June 9:  2 selections, no winners

2012:  47 selections, 41.5 units bet, 2 winners, 15 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 14.00 units (POT = -66%), BOB return of 14.50 units (POT = -65%)

 

Saturday June 16

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of slow 6 to heavy 10)

Race 3 No. 6 Aeronwy

• She’s a potentially untapped three-year-old filly, with two wins and two placings from her four career runs to date.
• While she’s yet to run over 2000 metres, her last start win at Sale (over 1740) suggested that she’s a strong stayer in the making.
• Her last start win was also her first run on a slow track, so she appears to be well suited on rain-affected going.
• Most importantly though, her opposition here all appear to have found their level in these restricted grade races, while she may well be destined for better things.

Race 4 No. 5 Geejayhaitch

• An out-and-out wet tracker, who returns to Melbourne again this winter after some success in a similar 2011 campaign.
• His last start third behind Mr O’Ceirin was sound, given that he was dropping back from 2400 to 2100 metres.
• Has six wins and five placings from 16 runs on slow or heavy tracks.
• Likely to go forward (along with likely favourite Turnitup) in a race devoid of much obvious early speed.

Race 8 No. 1 Gossip Girl

• Her first-up run when fifth behind boom filly Soft Sand (and only half a length behind third placegetter Spurcific, who she meets two kilos better at the weights this time) was a strong effort that she’ll derive plenty of benefit from.
• She has four wins and a second from nine starts on slow or heavy going, including three wins from as many starts on the heavy.
• Has won one of her two starts to date at Flemington.

 

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of slow 6 to heavy 10)

Race 8 No. 6 Harry Trimbole

• Starting to find form after three runs in this preparation, with a last start second to Zaamore indicating he’s ready to win.
• Has five wins and three placings from 10 runs when third-up or further into a campaign.
• Has three wins and three placings from eight runs on slow or heavy tracks.
• All five of his career wins have come in the 1600-2150 metre range, so the 1900 in this race should be very suitable.
• You always have to respect Mick Kent when he brings one up from Victoria for a race such as this.

 

Ipswich (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 3 No. 10 Startsmeup

• Has been running in significantly better grade than this recently – the winners of the last five races her ran in were Adebisi, My Destiny, Spirit Of Boom, Steel Zip and Rain Affair.
• Has won almost half a million dollars in prizemoney, yet somehow gets into a Class Six race with only two kilos over the limit.
• His record of five winless first-up runs must be taken in the context of the grades he has been racing in – when fifth to Adebsi first-up last prep, he split Excellantes (fourth) and The Ringmaster (sixth) over 1200 metres.

Race 5 No. 8 Hidden Kisses

• Her first-up effort was quite strong behind Wealth Princess when trapped wide from a bad barrier.
• She drops from 57.5 kilos in that Group 3 race to the 54 kilo limit for this Listed race and is drawn beautifully in barrier two.
• She has two wins and a second from four runs second-up.
• She has four wins and a second from 10 runs in the 1350-1400 metre range.

 

Morphettville (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 2 No. 1 Punctuate 

• Go back five starts and his form through Bel Sprinter (giving that galloper 1.5 kilos and being beaten less than a length at Moonee Valley) is outstanding for an RB81 race.
• Has four wins and two placings from seven starts at the trip
• Has three wins and a placing from four previous first-up efforts.
• Given his performances to date, getting in with 57.5 kilos after the claim is entirely reasonable, and in a sprint race such an impost should prove little to no problem.

Race 6 No. 6 Glacial Miss

• Her last start effort at Listed level was a complete ‘forgive’ run when she had no luck behind Bonnie Mac.
• She won three of her four starts prior to that, all at this track and trip.
• Has four wins and three placings from nine attempts at this distance overall.
• In a race where Periduki should set a strong tempo, her run-on style should be well suited.

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

Luxbet offer a wide variety of bet types when it comes to thoroughbred racing. In particular, for something as simple as a win-only bet on any given race, there are a number of different odds options that can be taken. For reasons I’ve previously articulated in some detail, their ‘Best of Best’ odds option is my personal favourite. You can certainly do a lot better than the SP when you’re betting with Luxbet.

Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo