More of the Same: The NFL Preview (Part 1: The AFC)

This introduction will be short. Expect more of the same in the AFC this year. There have been plenty of pundits predicting big-time change but by season’s end it will be those teams that have dominated the last five years who will triumph. The bandwagons are going to fall off the cliff before we hit week six.

AFC East: Home of the Most Overrated Team in Football

There are jokers claiming the New York Jets are “a lock for the AFC title game”, that they are capable of a 15-1 season, that they are destined for the Super Bowl, that 2010 will be the Year of the Jet, that Mark Sanchez is soon going to be more popular than “Broadway” Joe Namath was back in 1968. Right here you will get a prediction you will not see anywhere else: the New York Jets will not make the playoffs.

The Jets are the most overrated team in football. Let’s just take a trip back to 2009. The Jets snuck into the playoffs on a 9-7 record (though their Pythagorean wins tallied 11.4) after coach Rex Ryan declared their season was done when they were handed games against an Indianapolis team resting players and a Cincinnati team doing same. They went a lowly 2-4 in their division and lost four games at home to non-playoff teams Buffalo, Miami, Jacksonville and Atlanta. They then rolled a Bengals team in the first round of the playoffs after the Bengals had lost all their momentum by laying down to the Jets at the end of the regular season. They then benefited from an outstanding match-up against the one-dimensional, pass-happy Chargers before being eliminated by the Colts. The basis of their success last year was the corner play of Darrelle Revis, who has such an historically great season that a Football Outsiders study suggested it was the equivalent of setting “the NFL passing record by nearly 500 yards, beating out Jerry Rice for the single-season receiving record, or running for 2,000 yards while averaging a record-tying 6.4 yards per carry.”

There is absolutely no way that Darrelle Revis could have matched that type of season even if he wasn’t holding out. He is, however, not playing due to a contract dispute and he looks likely to sit out the entire season. There is little elsewhere to suggest the Jets will be as good as they seemed in 2009. They had a healthy offensive line last year and for the two seasons before and that is not expected to last as injuries tend to be random. They have an ordinary pass rush. Despite gushing that says otherwise, Mark Sanchez was ordinary in his first season with a 12-20 TD-Interception ratio. The reliance on a boom-or-bust running game does not bode well either with the release of Thomas Jones a poor move with Shonn Greene not nearly as good a prospect as his numbers suggest.

The Jets are the bust team of 2010 and they will not win the AFC East. That honour will be fought for by perennial victors New England and sleeper Miami. Buffalo will not be competitive. Buffalo are a terrible football team run by geriatrics with no discernible plan for the future, a total misunderstanding of their defensive strengths and three weak-armed quarterbacks. They will struggle to win 4 games.

The Patriots, who have not finished outside a tie for first in the division since 2001, will again be the team to beat. They have an elite offense led by Tom Brady and Randy Moss with Wes Welker’s early return from a serious knee injury an added bonus. The Patriots have also worked hard at rebuilding their defence with their early round draft choices over the last three years used exclusively on defensive players. The historical precedents for this suggest the Pats defence will improve. Tom Brady should also have more confidence after playing a full year after tearing an ACL. The Pats 10-6 record was actually an underachievement last year and this great Patriots team isn’t ready to fall off the cliff just yet. They deserve to be favourites for the AFC East and are capable of playing in another AFC title game though I fancy they will fall a game short of that.

Miami look the surprise team of the division and one of the surprise teams in the AFC. I have them winning a wildcard with a forecast of 9-10 wins this season. The popularity of the Jets has the Dolphins written off but the signing of Brandon Marshall is critical to Miami’s hopes as is luring former Niners coach Mike Nolan to coordinate the defence. Quarterback Chad Henne was good last year with no receivers and with Marshall and a quality and disciplined offensive line he is sure to improve. The sharp mind of offensive coordinator Dan Henning will also mean the team remains potent offensively with Henning bringing the wildcat back to the NFL with running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams running it perfectly. Miami are going to be better than most pundits predict.

Bets:

• 1.5 units of New England to win division @ 2.37 (Pinnacle)
• 0.5 units on Miami to win division @ 5.00 (Sportsbet)
• 1 unit on Miami over 8 ½ wins @ 1.95 (Sportsbet)
• 1.5 units on New York Jets under 9 ½ wins @ 1.95 (Sportsbet)
• 0.5 units on Buffalo under 5 wins @ 2.03 (Pinnacle)
• 0.25 units on Miami to win AFC @ 19.94 (Pinnacle)

AFC North: The Rise of Steel City

All the talk in the AFC North is about the Baltimore Ravens, a team I have spruiked for the last two seasons. I love their quarterback Joe Flacco, John Harbaugh is the best young coach in the NFL and they are a team built on sound defensive principles and aggressive defensive play. Their offensive line is outstanding and young while they have a very good special teams unit. They performed well last season making the playoffs for the second straight season and they really should have won 3 more games than they did after losing 5 games by a total of 16 points. They have recruited wisely in bringing in classy receiver Anquan Boldin and they have drafted well by bringing in a young linebacker. Everybody has seen this and they are the popular pick to head to the Super Bowl. Football Outsiders ranks them the top team and they are on the fifth line of betting to win the AFC among elite teams Indianapolis, San Diego and New England as well as boom team the New York Jets.

While the Ravens may be the sweetheart pick of the AFC, there are a few flags there that have me concerned enough to dump them down to a 9-7 team and a wildcard spot, the same position they ended up in last year. The Ravens benefited from a +10 turnover ratio and 26 of 31 teams have seen their win totals regress the season after a +10 turnover ratio or better since 2003. Baltimore had an outstanding run with injuries last year, ranking 26th in games lost by starters. That tally should even out this year. The Ravens are exceptionally undisciplined, ranking top five in penalty yards conceded for three straight seasons. The defence is aging with the secondary particularly concerning with star safety Ed Reed entering the season with an injury.

I think the Ravens have too much talent to fall too far but I would be highly surprised to see them improve on their 9-7 record of 2009.

The team I expect to win the division is Pittsburgh. The Steelers have slipped under the radar due to the off-season drama surrounding Ben Roethlisberger, who will miss the first four games of the season. The two major problems with the Steelers last year was the loss of star safety and arguably the most disruptive defender in the NFL in Troy Polamalu and a shocking special teams unit that conceded numerous ball-shattering return touchdowns. Polamalu will be fit and healthy heading into 2010 and a new special teams coach will surely fix the problems the Steelers have in the third dimension.

There is no doubt the loss of Big Ben hurts the Steelers but they have been done a favour with a schedule that ranks 21st in terms of toughness and is particularly undemanding in the first four weeks where the Steelers will play Detroit and Carolina at home and the Giants and Denver on the road. With the exciting Dennis Dixon likely to start under center and the uber-talented Rashard Mendenhall the clear number one tailback, the Steelers can easily be 3-1 when Roethlisberger returns. The Steelers have averaged 10.8 wins per season in the last eight years with 2003 their only season below .500. They have not missed the playoffs in consecutive years since 2000. Pittsburgh do everything well and I fancy they will hit back with a 10-11 win season in 2010.

Cincinnati won the division in 2009 to the surprise of everyone with Marv Lewis winning coach of the year. Expect the more traditional Bengals to be back this season. Cincy haven’t had consecutive winning seasons in 28 years and signing Terrell Owens does nothing to inspire confidence with locker room problems expected before an extra point is kicked in anger. To make matters worse, they have added Adam “Pacman” Jones. I’ll be surprised if the city of Cincinnati is still standing by the end of the year. The Bengals have a pair of outstanding lockdown corners in Hall and Joseph and they have a top class offensive line when it comes to the run but that is about it and a strong running game is rarely sustainable. With a difficult schedule, I expect the Bengals to fall to somewhere between 5 and 7 wins.

I hate myself for saying this but the Cleveland Browns are actually some chance of doing a little something this year. And by God, I hope they do because the city needs it after that bum LeBron James humiliated them all. There is no doubt the Browns have problems from their lack of quality in the skill positions to a severely disliked coach and a shift in offensive systems. There are signs of improvement though. Readers of this column are well aware of my distaste for Jake Delhomme but he is an upgrade for the Browns from Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn. The running game has potential with Jerome Harrison finishing off the year well and Montario Hardy a nice draft pickup. They have a great special teams. They also finished off 2009 with four straight wins and 3 of the 7 teams who have finished with 3-plus wins and finished under 8-8 have made the playoffs the next season and five have improved their record. Don’t expect miracles from the Browns but they are, gulp, a smoky playoff bet.

Bets:

• 2 units on Pittsburgh to win the AFC North @ 4.32 (Pinnacle)
• 1 units on Pittsburgh over 9 wins @ 2.45 (Pinnacle)
• 1.5 units on Pittsburgh over 8.5 units @ 1.90 (Betchoice)
• 1.5 units on Cleveland over 5.5 wins @ 2.15 (Betchoice)
• 1.5 units on Cincinnati under 8 wins @ 2.33 (Pinnacle)
• 0.25 units on Pittsburgh to win the AFC @ 12.00 (Sportsbet)
• 0.25 units on Pittsburgh to win the Super Bowl @ 26.00 (Sportsbet)

AFC South: Nothing Changes but the Seasons in the AFC South

If there is one certainty in football it is that the Indianapolis Colts will win at least 12 games. They have done so in every season since 2002, when Peyton Manning came of age. They will do so again this year. Their philosophy is simple: high octane offense and a speedy defence designed not to give up big plays. Nothing will change this year. Indianapolis will rely on Peyton Manning, who arguably has the best receiving corps he has ever had this year with Wayne, Gonzalez, Garcon and Collie all quality. On defence they will once again rely on Dwight Freeney and Bob Sanders. The running game will again suck but it will play its role of stretching the defence. Manning will again be the most dangerous man with the ball in his hands with the game on the line.

There are just a few concerns with the Colts. They simply cannot stop the run and that has hurt them at the backend of seasons when teams can run through them. Poor special teams has always been a problem but they have always seemed to overcome that. Last year they struggled to blow teams out which was concerning.

The Colts are good for 12 wins and they are good for the division. They had the second worse run with injuries in 2009 and that will regress and at any rate they are just that consistently brilliant. I just don’t think they have the defence to go all the way. They will likely fall in the second or third week of the playoffs.

There is not a lot separating the other three teams in the division.

Houston are again being touted as being talked up for a big season. I was all over the Texans last year and was bitterly disappointed that they failed to make the playoffs, mainly as a result of an insipid defence and a worse special teams unit. Matt Schaub is a quality quarterback and he has a beast in Andre Johnson to throw to but last year was his first full healthy season and questions over his durability remain. They had a solid offensive line last year but it will likely drop off this year with an increase in expected injuries. Star linebacker Brian Cushing will miss the first four games with suspension. They are a poor tackling team even with Cushing and the addition of a rookie cornerback in Kareem Jackson does not bode well. They had a soft schedule last year and that changes to the most difficult in the NFL this season.

There are too many red flags with the Texans. Football Outsiders provided a great statistic: teams that have a winning season after three losing seasons and finish with either 9 or 10 wins have an average win total the next year of 7.6 with only 6 of 24 teams improving on their record. Leave me out of the Texans. I have them finishing with 7 to 8 wins.

I think Jacksonville and Tennessee will both have 8 to 9 win seasons. Both are capable of sneaking a wildcard position though I have neither making it.

Tennessee are a marginally better team with star running back Chris Johnson in the lineup. Vince Young also looks like an NFL quarterback now. They have a strong offensive line and a respected and stable coaching situation. The Titans can also expect a downturn in Johnson’s numbers, they have a poor receiving corps, they are getting old on defence and they haven’t adequately replaced Albert Haynesworth (at least in terms of production). The Titans look a middling team with breakout potential.

The Jags are probably the same middling team but with less prospect of breaking out. David Garrard is capable enough and Maurice Jones-Drew is a great tailback and one of my favourite players in the NFL. They have also signed monster Packers defensive end Aaron Kampmann, who should improve their poor pass rush. Problems at linebacker and in the secondary remain though. The Jags played reasonably well for the first three-quarters of 2009 and if they can turn that into an entire season then they should be in contention for a wildcard spot.

Bets:

• 2.5 units on Indianapolis over 10 ½ wins @ 1.69 (Sportsbet)
• 1 units on Jacksonville over 7 wins @ 2.23 (Pinnacle)
• 0.1 units on Jacksonville to win the AFC @39.88 (Pinnacle)

AFC West: Apathy Central

I hate this division and every team in it. San Diego perennially win the AFC West and then fall apart in the playoffs because they are never nearly as good as their record suggests. Denver have been in freefall for a number of years and their new young punk coach looks a little out of his depth. Kansas City have had only three winning seasons this decade and have won a total of ten games over the last three seasons. Oakland are a joke thanks to Al Davis.

San Diego probably win the division. Their gap at the top is probably too great and none of the other three teams seem to be going all that hard at chasing down the Chargers, who have won the last four AFC West titles. They are too one-dimensional for my liking to be any serious threat to winning the AFC though. They are ultra-reliant on their passing game and after a stellar 2009 it would likely have fallen off a little anyway but without key lineman Marcus McNeill and wideout Vincent Jackson, both of whom are holding out, the Chargers one strength could fall off dramatically. San Diego cannot run the ball and they had want to hope first round selection Ryan Matthews improves that. They also cannot stop the pass. I think the Chargers win 9-10 games by virtue of their heinously easy schedule but I give them little hope in the playoffs against any team with a modicum of quality.

As much as it scares me to say, Oakland shapes as the big improvers. The Raiders finished 5-11 with a -13 turnover ratio last year. Teams with a turnover ratio of -10 or worse tend to improve by an average of 2 games the following season with 21 of the 30 teams to have a -10 or worse turnover ratio improving the following year with 19 of 24 improving when they have a record under .500. Jason Campbell is an upgrade at quarterback, their offensive line has depth, they are becoming more disciplined and they have an elite cornerback in Nnamidi Asomugha. I say this with no confidence with the Raiders not breaking 5 wins since their Super Bowl run in 2002 but I think Oakland can sneak up to 8 wins.

It is also hard to get too wound up about the Kansas City Chiefs though they should also improve. They have an easy schedule, they have one of the best ground games in the NFL with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, they have upgraded their offensive line and Tamba Hali is a top line pass rusher. Many are tipping them to win the West. I don’t think they have that much improvement in them. I can see them as an 8-8 team who can go places in 2011.

Denver look awful this season. They started out 6-0 last year before stumbling home with a 2-8 record. Their defence fell apart with the Broncos having only one elite defender in Elvis Dumervil. Denver have done little to improve this with the defence aging and the quality defensive coordinator sent packing. The Broncos couldn’t get the run going and their only quality offensive lineman in Ryan Clady will play hurt for most of the season if he plays at all. Denver have also lost star playmaker Brandon Marshall. The ceiling for the Broncos is 7 wins.

Bets:

• 1 unit on Oakland over 6 wins @ 1.77 (Betchoice)
• 1 unit on Denver under 7.5 wins @ 1.75 (Betchoice)

Division Champions: New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego
Wildcards: Miami, Baltimore

AFC Championship Game: Pittsburgh v Indianapolis
AFC Champion: Pittsburgh