NFL Season Preview – AFC

With the NFL season only days away from commencing, Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham deliver their predictions. Part one of the preview covers the AFC divisions.

 

AFC East

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This division isn't as cut-and-dried as the market would have you believe.

The New England Patriots are unquestionably the testing material – they have claimed eight of the last nine AFC East titles (their only loss coming to Miami in 2008 when Tom Brady went down injured in the first game of the season). After a Super Bowl run and an improved receiving corps (Brandon Lloyd gives the Pats their first genuine deep threat since Randy Moss) added to an already near-unstoppable offensive machine, they are one of the favourites to go all the way again. There are two big questions that need to be answered though. The Pats have a sound offensive line but the loss of veteran Matt Light hurts and he was without question their best lineman. The Pats defence was also porous last season and is unlikely to improve significantly this year, despite some investment in youth. The Pats had a bad injury run last year and have an easy schedule ahead but they benefited from a huge turnover differential and a 4-2 record in close games. They still rate as a 10-11 win team but the $1.25 on them taking the division is too short.

Buffalo have been bandied about as the sleeper in this division after acquiring outstanding defensive end Mario Williams. Not for mine. They still have major issues at the skill positions and their special teams have been poor. Even with a great schedule, they are a 7-win team that won't be winning its first AFC East crown in nearly 20 years.

The New York Jets made a big splash in free agency by picking up Tim Tebow and announcing they were integrating the wildcat into the offence with ex-Dolphins coach Tony Sparano the new offensive coordinator.  The Tebow pick-up is going to be a huge distraction. Even with the best secondary in the NFL and close to the best offensive line, points are clearly going to be hard to come by. They come out as winning eight games but if things go pear-shaped, they could go as low as four. There is more downside to the Jets than there is up.

Miami, for mine, are the value team in this division. Bookies have written them off as a 7/7.5-win team who is $18 to win the division. That is madness. These guys can improve into a wild card team and are some hope of upsetting the Patriots. The Dolphins were significantly better than their record suggested, they were 1-5 in close games (these games tend to even out) and the new coaching set-up with Joe Philbin should add a sense of how to win after coming from Green Bay. The Dolphins are going to shock plenty of teams with a quality defence and capable offense and are well over the odds.

NT Prediction: New England 10-6, Miami 10-6 (wild card), NY Jets 8-8, Buffalo 7-9

NT Best Bet: Miami over 7.5 wins at $3.59 (Pinnacle)

 

CB

The Patriots will continue to be the the AFC East benchmark for as long as the Tom Brady/ Bill Bellichick combination remains intact. The loss of BenJarvus Green-Ellis may hurt their running game a little, but the Patriots have typically operated a ‘running back platoon’ in recent years, so it should be fine.

Miami are a sneaky chance to grab a wild card in my mind. I like the signing of former Packers’ offensive co-ordinator Joe Philbin as head coach, I like Daniel Thomas coming back from injury, and I like the stats that point to a 2012 improvement (positive points differential and a 2-5 record in 2011 games decided by a touchdown or less). If they had a better QB battle than rookie Ryan Tannehill and Matt Moore, I’d give them 10 wins and a wild card…. screw it, I’m giving them nine wins, a wild card and my ‘2012 playoff sleeper’ mantle.

The Jets underachieved last year and with the Super Bowl champion Giants dominating New York football, Mark Sanchez looking over his shoulder to Tim Tebow and a tough early start (at Pit, SF, Hou, at NE in the first seven weeks!), I can see them rattling home when the playoff race is already over.

Things are less rosy for my Buffalo Bills, who won only 2 of their last 11 games in 2011 and bring back much the same cast for 2012 (with the notable exception of former Texan Mario Williams, who will be a huge boost to a defence that conceded over 27 points per game last year). 6-10 flattered the Bills last year; this year, I think it will be about right.

CB prediction: New England 12-4, Miami 9-7 (wild card), New York Jets 8-8, Buffalo 6-10.

CB Best Bet: Miami over 7.5 wins at $3.59 (Pinnacle)

 

AFC North

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Not much changes in the AFC North with this again set to be the home of smash-mouth, defensive, quality football with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens again set to fight it out for division champions. You can totally forget about Cincinnati and Cleveland.

The Bengals snuck a wildcard berth last year but have not made consecutive playoffs since 1982 and are significantly invested in youth at the skill positions. They seem like a 7-9 team at best.

The Browns are much worse. They won four games last year and look headed for something similar with a brutal schedule, a rookie QB who also happens to be old (only in Cleveland) and a history of incompetency.

Betting has Pittsburgh marginal favourites to win this division. They should be much shorter since the Ravens lost key pass-rusher Terrell Suggs, likely for the year. The Ravens have an outstanding defence but it is an aging one (similar to Pittsburgh's last year, that saw them notably drop in effectiveness) and one that relies heavily on Suggs. John Harbaugh's men also had a dream run with injuries last year. With a ho-hum offense and with a special teams that is the Browns side of terrible, the Ravens cannot afford a drop in their defensive output. They are still a 10-win team and a wildcard side but Pittsburgh seem to be a 2-3 win stronger side.

I love everything about the Steelers this season and think they can bounce back to another Super Bowl appearance. The Steelers are a stable organisation and the addition of Todd Haley as OC should be a positive despite grumblings from Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers have got younger on defence and on the offensive line, while retaining their veteran core. With an easier schedule than the Ravens and coming off a year where they had no luck with turnovers or health, the Steelers look primed to finish with a 12-13-win season and potentially the No.1 seed in the AFC.

NT Prediction: Pittsburgh 13-3, Baltimore 10-6 (wild card), Cincinnati 7-9, Cleveland 4-12

NT Best Bet:  Pittsburgh to win AFC North at $2.25 (Bet 365)

 

CB

I always like it when bad head coaches drop back into offensive/ defensive co-ordinator roles – their playoff strike rate is pretty good. In recent times, we’ve seen numerous terrible head coaches make the postseason as a sidekick, such as Cam Cameron (Baltimore), Wade Phillips (Houston), Romeo Crennel (New England, Kansas City), Josh McDaniels (New England) and Scott Linehan (Detroit).

I was already leaning to the Steelers to take out the division before Ravens defensive co-ordinator Chuck Pagano took the top job at the Colts, and when former Chiefs’ head coach Todd Haley signed as the Pittsburgh offensive co-ordinator, that sealed the deal.

Here is a well-worn piece of Bill Simmons wisdom: Almost every season, a team who had a first round playoff bye the season before drops by at least four or five wins to miss the playoffs entirely. Last year Chicago dropped only three wins but missed the playoffs; Minnesota dropped by six wins in 2010; Tennessee by five wins and Carolina by four wins in 2009; Green Bay by seven wins in 2008; Baltimore by eight wins and Chicago by six wins in 2007, and so it goes.

As I’ve already booked the Patriots a playoff spot, that leaves the Ravens, Packers and Niners. The Ravens have the toughest immediate divisional rival of the three, and while they were so close to a Super Bowl last year, their aging roster looks set to be critical at some point soon. Joe Flacco continues to inspire anything but confidence and if Ray Rice gets hurt, they have problems. I think they are really vulnerable.

The history of teams making a big jump one season and then either reaching a plateau or even regressing a little is too strong for me to predict big things out of the Bengals in 2012. Nonetheless, I like the Andy Dalton/ AJ Green combination enough to suggest that their dip will only be a minor one.

Cleveland have a QB controversy already with Brandon Weeden looking set to take the starting job from Colt McCoy. Their stats in games decided by a touchdown or less (three wins, six losses) suggest a slight bump this season, but after getting burned on a ‘playoff sleeper’ pick last year, six wins is as high as I can get on the Browns.

CB prediction: Pittsburgh 13-3, Baltimore 9-7, Cincinnati 8-8, Cleveland 6-10.

CB Best Bet: Pittsburgh over 10.5 wins at $2.40 (TAB Sportsbet)

AFC South

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The toughest division in the AFC.

I was quick to put a line through Jacksonville. They have spent in free agency but they won't give a contract to their best player, running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who could sit out a good part of the season. They have few strengths and they have undercut one of them.

The next team to go is the Colts, though they are a team I think will go over their 5-game line and can cause a nuisance. Andrew Luck is obviously ready to make an immediate impact and the Colts have a couple of outstanding pass rushers, who will be put to full use by new coach Chuck Pagano, from the Ravens. A bit of pluck is expected.

One thing I am confident on is Houston not improving on their 10-6 record last year. The darling side heading into 2012, the Texans had plenty going for them last year and took a major hit on defence with the loss of Mario Williams, as well as some starting offensive linemen and a good tight end. With Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels getting on and Matt Schaub perennially injury-prone, the $1.20 on them winning the division is way too short for a team with limited upside.

That leaves Tennessee. I'm not super-confident on the Titans but I do think they are an improving side with a good young quarterback, who gets a bum rap. Chris Johnson is in for a bounce-back season and with a pretty sound defensive base, can go 9-7 again and get the AFC South title. Tough to see them challenging for a Super Bowl berth though.

NT Prediction: Tennessee 9-7, Houston 9-7, Indianapolis 7-9, Jacksonville 5-11

NT Best Bet: Houston Under 10.5 wins at $1.87 (IAS)

 

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Houston’s 10-6 record last year was a misnomer – they hit 10-3, wrapped up a playoff berth (minus starting QB Matt Schaub) and went into an entirely forgivable dip. Then they belted the Bengals in Wild Card week and pushed the Ravens on the road in the divisional playoffs. Despite the loss of Mario Williams, the AFC South is theirs to lose.

The Titans run second by pure process of elimination, although it will be interesting to see how they go with Jake Locker in the starting QB role from day one. If Chris Johnson can recapture his best form, they can sneak into the playoffs.

The bad news for the Jaguars – they were horrendous for much of last year. The good news is that their best player is holding out on his contract (see Johnson, Chris for an example of what this may lead to), Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne will fight out the QB role and their new head coach (Mike Mularkey) already failed at Buffalo in 2004 and 2005. Oh wait, that’s all bad news too….. tough times for Jags fans.

The Colts went into ‘Suck for Luck’ mode last year. Given how late they left their run on most 2012 player signings, I suspect that this year they will just suck.

CB prediction: Houston 11-5, Tennessee 9-7 (wild card), Jacksonville 3-13, Indianapolis 3-13

CB Best Bet: Tennessee over 7.5 wins at $2.19 (IAS)

 

AFC West

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Screw Peyton Manning. Screw the returning KC players who had their 2012devastated by injury. Screw everything about the Oakland Raiders. This is San Diego's division to win or lose and I am flabbergasted that they were not installed as favourites to take the AFC West for the fifth time in seven years. There is no question that the Chargers are perennial underachievers – last year was a prime example of that. They also have major issues at coach and general manager, which seems to cause drama year after year. But on both numbers and talent, the Chargers seem miles ahead of their AFC West rivals. Phillip Rivers had an off-year in 2012 but is without question a quality quarterback and a solid running game and a decent set of receivers should see the Chargers continue to rate as a top-10 offensive talent. The problems last year were defensive but they get a new defensive coordinator and more freedom for Eric Weddle, their best defensive talent. All indicators are that the Chargers should improve on their 8-8 showing last year.

The Broncos are the favourites for the division. Please. Manning is obviously one of the all-time greats but is coming off neck surgery into a new team and players of his ilk moving clubs at his age rarely rediscover their best form. The Broncos went 8-8 last year but pulled a good number of wins from the ass of Tim Tebow and were really a 6-10 side.

Kansas City are expected to improve with Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry back but they also overachieved, have loss outstanding cornerback Brandon Carr and when has Romeo Crennel ever been known as a winner?

Oakland are bad – still trying to unravel the mess of the last decade with yet another new coach. The players won't fit the new system – a six-win season would be a surprise.

NT Prediction:San Diego 10-6, Denver 7-9, Kansas City 6-10, Oakland 5-11

NT Best Bet: San Diego to win AFC West at $3.16 (Pinnacle)

 

CB

We’d better have some differing opinions on the NFC side of the ledger – so far this column has been little more than a prognostication cock block.

More Bill Simmons wisdom: almost every season a team from outside the playoffs jumps by at least four or five wins and captures a first round playoff bye the subsequent year. San Francisco jumped by seven wins to do it last year; Atlanta jumped by four wins in 2010; New Orleans and San Diego each jumped by five wins in 2009; Carolina by five wins in 2008; Green Bay by five wins in 2007, and so it goes. It just keeps happening, year after year.

This brings me neatly to San Diego. They had the only positive points differential in the AFC West last year and were the only team in the division to go worse than .500 in games decided by a touchdown or less (with a 3-5 record). 8-8 is the worst record they’ve posted since 2003, and the last time they went 8-8 (in 2008) they bounced back with a 13-3 season and a first round bye. I think they cruise to the divisional title this season.

Denver may be the reigning AFC West champs, but in truth they were lucky to even make an 8-8 record. Their points differential was -81 and of the only five games they played that were decided by more than a touchdown, they copped four complete hammerings (conceding 40+ points in all of them). Jack Del Rio coming on board as a defensive co-ordinator should help plug those leaks. Peyton Manning is 36 and coming off neck surgery, and while I still think he’ll help them, it will only be to a more reflective .500 season or thereabouts.

The Raiders haven’t won more than eight games since 2002. Last year, they had a -74 points differential and went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Everything about them smacks of another losing season.

Part of me thinks that Kansas City can improve with a healthy Matt Cassell and Jamaal Charles. The other part remembers Romeo Crennel being a terrible head coach at Cleveland before dropping back a notch and being an excellent defensive co-ordinator for the Patriots and then the Chiefs (see AFC North notes above). With Crennel back in charge, it’s hard to see a happy outcome for the Chiefs.

CB Prediction: San Diego 12-4, Denver 8-8, Oakland 5-11, Kansas City 4-12

CB Best Bet: I can’t split San Diego over 9.0 wins at $2.19 (IAS) and Kansas City under 8.0 wins at $1.83 (Sportingbet).

NT AFC Playoff Teams: Pittsburgh, New England, San Diego, Tennessee, Baltimore, Miami

NT AFC Championship: Pittsburgh v San Diego

 

CB AFC Playoff Teams: Pittsburgh, San Diego, New England, Houston, Tennessee, Miami

CB AFC Championship: Pittsburgh v New England

 

Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo