NFL Season Preview – NFC

Our two-part NFL season preview continues, as Nick Tedeschi and Cliff Bingham assess the NFC.

 

NFC East

NT

Traditionally the toughest division in the NFC to figure, and a division that has produced a wild card team in seven of the last 10 years, this year seems a little more clear-cut than previous ones.

In the East, I have traditionally favoured the New York Giants. They did go on to win the Super Bowl last year in four of the last six years have seen playoff runs. I'm forecasting a slight downturn for the Giants this year, though. Eli Manning has won two Super Bowl rings so it is tough to argue with his credentials but he can still be wayward and there are significant issues with the running game – of which there virtually is none. The defensive side should improve: Terrell Thomas is a big in at cornerback. But they rely too heavily on Osi Umenyora, who had injury issues last year. The Giants again have a tough schedule and without question overachieved last year. They rate as a 7-8 win team.

Philadelphia are favourites to take the division and after a disappointing 2011, they should breakout this season. They still rely heavily on Michael Vick – and need him to stay upright – but on both sides of the ball they have class. Running back LeSean McCoy is highly effective and there is a ring of effective receivers while the defence should show notable improvement with an investment in the linebackers to complement an outstanding defensive line. The Eagles significantly underachieved last year, were shocking in close games and had turnover ratio of -14 – teams tend to bounce back after such ordinary luck. They are an 11-win side for mine.

Dallas are no good. Signing Brandon Carr should improve a porous secondary but it is still the crutch of a defence that struggles outside the pass rush while the offensive line is horrendous and key receiver Jason Witten is getting no younger. They could get to .500 but I doubt it.

The Washington Redskins aren't hopeless. There are a lot of indicators that suggest they should improve: a -14 turnover ratio, the second worst-injury rate on offense, a poor record in close games. Drafting Robert Griffin III – who is ready to roll in the NFL – gives this team a real upside. Probably not a playoff team but close.

NT Prediction: Philadelphia 11-5, NY Giants 8-8, Washington 8-8, Dallas 7-9

NT Best Bet: Philadelphia to win NFC East at $2.80 (IAS)

 

CB

Finally, a point of difference!

The 2011 Giants reminded me of the 2007 Giants in so many ways. A reasonable (if unspectacular) regular season highlighted by a narrow loss to a juggernaut late in the piece, followed by getting hot in the playoffs, downing a heavily favoured Packers line-up at Lambeau and beating the Patriots in the Super Bowl by being the final team to score a touchdown. So what happened to the defending champs in 2008? They carried the momentum to a 12-4 record and first round bye before losing to the Eagles. I fancy their chances of taking a similar path in 2012.

As for the Eagles, their soap opera of a 2011 season still resulted in an 8-8 record (keeping them at .500 or above for every season since 2005). With positive points differential and a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, I fancy their risk is more on the upside of .500 this year.

If the last couple of years have taught us anything, it’s that Tony Romo is both a tough bugger when it comes to playing with injuries by mentally fragile when the pressure moments bear down on him. When you throw in the fact that the defence (led by ‘mastermind’ co-ordinator Rob Ryan) conceded more points than the likes of sub-.500 teams Miami, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Kansas City and Seattle, I can’t have them any higher than third favourite for the divisional title.

The poor Redskins – they’re a perpetually competitive division and with another new QB at the helm (at least this time with a greater likelihood of some continuity across years in the form of RG III), I can’t see them pushing for a spot in the playoff race.

CB Prediction: New York Giants 10-6, Philadelphia 9-7, Dallas 8-8, Washington 4-12

CB Best Bet: New York Giants to win NFC East at $3.25 (TAB Sportsbet)

 

NFC North

NT

The NFC North is again the top division in the NFC with two 10-plus win teams and all four expected to be competitive in 2012.

The Green Bay Packers are favourites for the Super Bowl after a 15-1 season. They are strong across the board with Aaron Rodgers probably the best quarterback in the NFL. While the Packers should show some regression, at least in terms of wins, the defence was a little off last year and should be better. Clay Matthews, BJ Raji and Charles Woodson are all defensive stars and they have improved their pass rush, a point of weakness last year, markedly in the draft. This is a team that will again be challenging for a Super Bowl berth. A brilliant coach and outstanding special teams are added bonuses.

Detroit are widely touted as being the second-elect. Not for mine. Their improvement into a playoff team last year won't be repeated. The foundations just aren't there. Matt Stafford is good but had a tremendous amount of luck. The coaching is questionable. The defence is talented but ill-disciplined. Running in shootouts is not sustainable. They could fall to the worst division record.

Chicago are a quality team and the addition of Brandon Marshall should see a major improvement with the ball. It will work two-fold: the passing game will improve with Marshall an elite catcher while the running game should open up for Matt Forte and backup Michael Bush. Ditching Mike Martz as OC will also benefit Jay Cutler. This team has a high-class defence and elite special teams. If the offensive line can improve to just being competent, this is a Super Bowl contender. They are well over the odds to win the division.
Minnesota have been written off by all and sundry but I think they can improve to 8-8 after steadying the ship last year. This is a team that has quality on the offensive and defensive lines, has an elite running back (admittedly coming back from an ACL in record time), an improved linebacking corps and a competent quarterback. The Vikings went 2-9 in close games last year – they were better than their 3-13 record. A smokie and possible wild card team.

NT Prediction: Green Bay 11-5, Chicago 10-6 (wild card), Minnesota 8-8, Detroit 7-9

NT Best Bet: Minnesota over 6 wins at $1.95 (Bet 365)

 

CB

Last year the Packers were phenomenal (at least until the playoffs) and I still expect them to top the division in 2012. However, history tells us that it is nigh on impossible to put together back-to-back seasons of 14 wins or more. Given that they were 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a very strong turnover ratio, regressing to something more like 12 or 13 wins this year seems a reasonable assessment to me.

I thought that the Bears were excellent last year (7-3 on the season with losses to the Saints away, Lions away and Packers at home) before Jay Cutler went down. He’s back, Forte is back, Brandon Marshall offers firepower at WR and egocentric Mike Martz is gone. They can challenge for the division this season.

The Lions have been on an upward trajectory for three seasons now since the infamous winless 2008 season, posting records of 2-14, 6-10 and then 10-6 last year. Their defence still leaks too many points for my liking (over 24 per game in the 2011 regular season), but they’re a high-powered unit who can score quickly and must be respected. With the NFC West and AFC South on their schedule, I think they can run third in this division and still get a wild card.

As for the Vikings, please see my comments above on the Redskins (minus the RG III reference). Their 2-9 2011 record in games decided by a touchdown or less points to an improvement on last year, but they’re a long way off the pace in what may be the strongest division of all this season.

CB Prediction: Green Bay 12-4, Chicago 11-5 (wild card), Detroit 10-6 (wild card), Minnesota 5-11

CB Best Bet: Chicago over 9.5 wins at $2.30 (TAB Sportsbet)

 

NFC South

NT

The Atlanta Falcons are my team to go to the Super Bowl from the NFC. They have everything to my eye. On offense, Matt Ryan has been solid but could be in for a breakout year with Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White, Jones sure to improve in his second year. The running game is highly effective with Michael Turner. The offensive line is decent. The defence will significantly improve with the signings of Asante Samuel and Lofa Tatupu. The addition of Mike Nolan as DC is a huge boon too. This team went 10-6 last year and is at a point where they need to win now before their window closes. This is their year.

The New Orleans Saints have had the most disastrous off-season imaginable. I am a big believer in this team but anyone who thinks that losing their coach and GM and a number of players won't have a negative impact is delusional. The talent here suggests they could still win 9-10 games and make the playoffs but there is major downside. I have them at nine wins but really have assessed them to their best.

Tampa Bay gave up on coach Raheem Morris last year. Quarterback Josh Freeman is reportedly in career-best shape, they have a hot new running back and have splashed out in free agency. The NFC South is always volatile and a lot of statistical indicators suggest a major improvement for the Bucs. They can improve to .500 or better.

The Panthers will be much the same. Cam Newton struggled at the backend of last year and there are injury concerns at running back already. With terrible special teams, this side looks a way off the playoffs.

NT Prediction: Atlanta 11-5, New Orleans 9-7, Tampa Bay 8-8, Carolina 7-9

NT Best Bet: Atlanta to win NFC South at $2.50 (Bet 365)

CB

The NFC South hasn’t had a repeat divisional champion since the NFL expanded to eight divisions almost a decade ago. Why start now?

I was low on the Falcons going into last season but they were, in my mind, better than your typical 10-6 team: their six losses came against New Orleans (home and away), Chicago (away, before Cutler got hurt), Green Bay, Houston (away) and Tampa (16-13 away, as the Bucs won four of their first six games). Aside from the lapse against the Bucs, that’s completely respectable. With the offseason proving troublesome for the Saints and the Panthers/ Bucs not being ready yet, they’ve got the inside rail in the NFC South.

The Saints have to overcome the Bountygate scandal, the loss of Sean Payton for the season and the awkward coaching-by-committee arrangements that a six-week suspension for Joe Vitt brings. Drew Brees almost guarantees you a .500 record on his own, but with this controversy and a 4-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less last season, I can see a slide coming.

The Panthers will be a fun team to watch – with Cam Newton under centre, how could they be anything else? However, a defence that conceded 28 points or more in nine games last season remains a sticking point. Expect both excitement and some level of improvement, but not enough for the playoffs.

It’s hard to get bolshy about the prospects of a team who lost 10 straight matches to end last year – especially one who on average scored 17 points in those games while conceding almost 35. With Greg Schiano coming up from College Football (Rutgers) to the NFL head coaching job, I’m expecting the Bucs to trail the field home in this division.

CB Prediction: Atlanta 12-4, New Orleans 9-7, Carolina 7-9, Tampa Bay 5-11

CB Best Bet: Atlanta over 9.5 wins at $2.15 (TAB Sportsbet)

 

NFC West

NT

There isn't a great deal to say about the NFC West. San Francisco should decline but still have too much class for the remainder of the three teams. St Louis will still stink. Arizona remain mediocre. Seattle have some improvement in them but not enough to run down the 49ers.

There are a lot of statistical red flags on the 49ers heading into this year: a ridiculous +28 turnover ratio, the second best run of defensive injuries, 6-2 in close games, a dramatic improvement of seven wins last year.  Everyone is tipping a regression. And they probably won't achieve the 13 wins of last season but they are still a 10-win team with an outstanding coach, a fearsome defence and an improved offense. They are still going to win this ordinary division.

Seattle have some improvement in them and may actually improve into a wild card team. The Seahawks have the strongest home-field advantage in the NFL and look to be following the 49ers model of building from a strong defence. The decision to go with Russel Wilson at quarterback was not a wise one and I don't rate Pete Carroll highly but they were killed with injuries last year and still went 7-9. They can get to 9-7.

Arizona went 8-8 last year and are expected to drop heavily this year. I'm not convinced about that. They aren't a good team – no team is good with John Skelton at quarterback – but they should improve a little defensively. I have them pegged as a 7-8 win outfit.

I love Jeff Fisher and his signing at St Louis will have some long-term benefits but even with a forecast improvement of three wins, they are still a total irrelevance.

NT Prediction:San Francisco 10-6, Seattle 9-7 (wild card), Arizona 7-9, St Louis 5-11

NT Best Bet: Seattle to win over 7 games at $1.57 (Bet 365)

 

CB

This repeating each other thing is growing tiresome… thankfully we’re up to the final division where we are in furious agreement.

In the AFC North preview I mentioned the history around at least one team who had a first-round playoff bye failing to make the postseason at all the following year. It was tempting to nominate the Niners for that fall given that so many things point their way – came out of nowhere last year, went 6-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, the combustible nature of a possibly washed-up Randy Moss, the effect Moss may have on a still-shaky-at-times Alex Smith, and so forth. I’m trusting in both Jim Harbaugh and the inferior competition in the division to see them home.

If they do fall from grace, the Seahawks appear the most likely to ascend to the top. Last year they had a positive points differential and a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. The acquisition of former Packers backup Mat Flynn (who lit it up against Detroit in week 17 last year) can only help them at QB. Their home field advantage is one of the strongest in the NFL. Hmmm… I am severely tempted to tip them to win the division.

One team I won’t be tipping for the division is Arizona. Their biggest winning margin of the entire 2011 season was seven points (at home against Carolina), they couldn’t exceed 10-6 even with Kurt Warner at the helm and a QB controversy involving John Skelton is brewing. No thank you.

The Rams regressed horrendously in 2011, to the point where four of their last five seasons have resulted in a record of 3-13 or worse. New head coach Jeff Fisher comes with plenty of credentials earned over a decade and a half at the Oliers/ Titans, but the record of aging coaches at new clubs is not great. Keep your expectations in check.

CB Prediction: San Francisco 10-6, Seattle 8-8, Arizona 7-9, St Louis 4-12

CB Best Bet: To keep your money in your wallet when it comes to the NFC West.

 

NT NFC Playoff Teams: Green Bay, Atlanta, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Chicago, Seattle

NT NFC Championship: Green Bay v Atlanta

 

CB NFC Playoff Teams: Green Bay, Atlanta, New York Giants, San Francisco, Chicago, Detroit

CB NFC Championship: Green Bay v Atlanta

 

Thanks to Joe Robbins/ Getty Images North America for use of the photo