October 6 Racing Selections

Tips for this Saturday cover the meetings at Flemington (featuring the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes) and Randwick (featuring four Group 1 races, including the Epsom Handicap).

Final report card for 2011 and revised rules for 2012 tips

Results for September 28-30 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Under The Sun

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Caulfield – Precedence ($6.00 SP) – unplaced

Caulfield – Solzenhitsyn ($6.00) – third

Caulfield – Stratcombe ($9.00) – unplaced

September 28-30 results:   3 selections, no winners, 1 third

2012 results:  68 selections, 68 units bet, 6 winners, 23 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 45.50 units (POT = -36%), BOB return of 48.90 units (POT = -31%)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

September 28-30 results:  no selections, no winners

2012 results:  23 selections, 11.5 units bet, 2 winners, 2 thirds, SP return of 11.00 units (POT = -4%), BOB return of 11.95 units (POT = +4%)

Overall Results

September 28-30:  3 selections, 3 units bet, no winners, 1 third

2012:  94 selections, 82.5 units bet, 8 winners, 25 seconds/  thirds, SP return of 56.50 units (POT = -32%), BOB return of 60.85 units (POT = -26%)

 

Saturday October 6

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 3 December Draw

• I really liked his second-up run at Caulfield when third to Ocean Park in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes.
• He loves Flemington, with four wins from five starts at the track, including three wins from as many starts at the track and trip and a win in this race last year.
• He has won all of his 2000-metre races to date since coming to Australia.
• From barrier three he looks well placed to get a cheap run up near the speed on a moderate tempo.

Race 9 No. 11 That’s The One

• He was luckless first up at Moonee Valley behind Sea Lord and then ran reasonably when midfield in the Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes last Sunday when very few horses made significant ground – the drop back to Listed class will suit nicely.
• His only Group 1 run prior to that was a fourth placing in the Australian Guineas in March.
• He has two wins from three starts at Flemington and is unbeaten in two attempts at the 1400 metres here, including a win at Group 3 level in the autumn.
• When you consider that of the five horses given 58 kilos or more, only one of them has raced at Group 1 level (Torio’s Quest, who has been beaten out of sight twice), I think this gallloper is really well weighted with only 54.5 kilos.

 

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 1 Shoot Out

• He was outstanding first-up when winning the Group 1 George Main Stakes at WFA level, which has historically been the best guide to this race (15 of the past 28 Epsom winners have come through that event).
• He has four wins and a second from seven starts at Randwick, three wins and two placings from six starts at the mile overall, and two wins and a second to More Joyous in the Doncaster Handicap from three starts at the track and trip.
• In a race where elite-level form is thin on the ground, his last five starts read fantastically: a pair of Group 1 WFA wins over a mile, a second to Rain Affair over 1400 metres at WFA, a third to Manighar over 2000 metres at Group 1 WFA level, and the aforementioned second to More Joyous.

Race 8 No. 4 Permit

• His last start sixth in the Group 2 Hill Stakes was better than it looked on paper, as he raced on the inferior ground near the fence in the home straight.
• Two starts ago he was beaten less than two lengths by Glencadam Gold when conceding that galloper five kilos. He meets that horse four kilos better off at the weights this time.
• Importantly, he gets better as the distances increase. He has never won below 2200 metres, but has three wins from four starts over 2400 metres and also won the Group 2 Chairman’s Handicap (2600 metres) at this venue in April.
• From barrier two and with only 54 kilos, there should be no excuses for him in running.

 

Making The Nut is very pleased to have Luxbet on board as a sponsor of the site again in 2012.

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Thanks to Matt King/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo