One Last Run at the Sun: The NFL Preview (Part 2: The NFC)

For the last four seasons we have gone through the Brett Favre preseason dance and every year Favre has decided to return. It is his right and I’m pleased he has. He has made football all the more enjoyable. Be sure and certain though: this is the last run at the sun for old number four.

Favre will be 41 by the end of the season and he showed signs this offseason that he was ready to actually retire. The lure of history and greatness was too much though. And what the hell, you only live once.

For all his records and all his brilliance and all his likability, the fact remains that Brett Favre has won only one Super Bowl and that was fourteen seasons ago. He has chased another ever since but has never been able to taste the joy of holding aloft the Vince Lombardi Trophy again. He went back to the Dance in ’97 but that ended in misery and he was oh so close in both 2007 and 2009, so close that he could taste it. It is that taste which is driving him. And it is that taste that will push the Minnesota Vikings into this year’s Super Bowl.

NFC East: Land of the Giants

Every year the NFC East rates as one of the most difficult divisions to assess. This year is no exception with all four teams having some chance. Both Dallas and Philadelphia made the playoffs last season making it five years straight that at least two teams from the NFC East qualified for the playoffs. The Giants were disappointing in finishing 8-8 but had excuses. Washington have again made a short-term upgrade to their team in both a roster and a coaching sense.

I am prepared to disregard Washington despite the Skins bringing in Mike Shanahan as coach, Donovan McNabb as quarterback and a host of other veterans to round out the roster. The moves are traditional Washington with no vision for the future. Once again the Redskins shape as a stars-and-scrubs team meaning there is no depth and any injuries will cripple the franchise. Considering the money the team has invested, they are surely better than the 4-12 rabble which shamed the club last year but McNabb is not a significant upgrade to Jason Campbell, Albert Haynesworth remains disenchanted, the team has somehow managed to get older, the Skins have a god-awful offensive line and they have a worse secondary. Washington probably wins 7-8 games but they surely won’t claim the NFC East.

That leaves Dallas, Philly and the Giants and the Cowboys are way under the odds with forecasters suggesting they are a 10-11 win team.

The Cowboys are coming off an 11-5 season and they have talent both sides of the ball. Tony Romo looked far more composed last year, they have a three-headed running attack and they have exceptional receivers like Miles Austin and Jason Witten. Defensively, Jay Ratliff, Anthony Spencer, Demarcus Ware and Mike Jenkins are legitimate stars. There is no doubt the Cowboys are loaded. Like Washington though, the Cowboys have depth issues. Dallas were so good last year because they were one of the healthiest teams in the NFL. Aging teams like Dallas cannot rely on staying healthy. That is particularly worrying when it comes to the offensive line, a group that can best be described as brittle. The Cowboys are an 8-9 win team but I have them just missing the playoffs due to their difficult schedule and the downside potential resulting from age and a distinct lack of depth.

Philadelphia also strike me as being overvalued by pundits. The Eagles have averaged 9.6 wins per season over the last eight years and have finished below only .500 once. While I have never been the biggest fan of Donovan McNabb, he must be given much of the credit for that success. He has now gone though and a new era has begun in Philadelphia with Kevin Kolb exhibiting potential but is a long way from being a sure bet. Kolb has a good football IQ but he has a weak arm and combined with a coaching regime renowned for not running the ball enough, he may be set for a rough first season as the anointed starter. There are also question marks over the running game and the receiving set with both leaning towards the all-or-nothing deal that can cause teams to put up more than one stinker. Philly have decent enough offensive and defensive lines meaning they should win their share of matches but I don’t think they are a playoff team. They seem to be in for a middling, mediocre, monotonous season.

The New York Giants are the one team in the division who look like they will really improve this season. Their defence oriented, pound-the-ball philosophy means they will be working off a high enough base and Eli Manning has developed himself into a more than capable quarterback. The primary reasons for the failings of the Giants in 2009 were key injuries to the offensive line and the secondary. All four starting defensive backs were injured at some point last season and combined with a downturn in their pass rush due to a disappointing season from Osi Umeryiora; the ass fell out of their once vaunted defence. They ranked 13th in yards allowed but 30th in points allowed suggesting the Giants gave up a disproportionate amount of points for their defensive fallibilities. Injuries to the offensive line and the running backs also hurt their traditionally strong running game. Assuming the Giants get a fair shake of the injury stick and Eli Manning continues his improvement, the Giants will improve and that suggests a season with something around 10 wins. The strength of the Giants defence and their versatility with the ball also makes them a legitimate hope of winning the NFC. I think they will fall just a little short but if they get some breaks they won’t be far off.

Bets:

• 2 units on Dallas under 10.5 wins @ 1.70 (Betchoice)
• 0.5 units on New York Giants to win NFC East @ 4.80 (Betchoice)
• 0.25 units on New York Giants to win NFC @ 14.11 (Pinnacle)
• 0.1 units on New York Giants to win Super Bowl @ 34.00 (Centrebet)

NFC North: A Fond Farewell to Old Number Four

The New York Jets are the most overrated team in the AFC and the Green Bay Packers are the most overrated outfit in the NFC. It is going to be a bad year for teams in green.

The Packers are the raging hot favourites to win the NFC North but they shouldn’t be. They didn’t win last year and they had everything break their way. They also have glaring holes which better teams like Minnesota will have few problems exploiting. The biggest red flag on the Packers is their +24 turnover ratio. The only team not called the Indianapolis Colts to record a turnover ratio of +16 or greater since 2003 that hasn’t dropped three games the next season was the 2004 New England Patriots. That is nine teams that have dropped between three and eight games. Further, 25 of 28 teams with a record better than .500 who have a turnover ratio of +10 or better have dropped games the next season over the same period while 26 of 31 teams with the same turnover ratio have regressed, all by an average of three games. The Packers got the bounce of the ball last year and they are unlikely to get that same luck again. A decline of at least two games has to be expected.

The Packers have quality key position players on offense (Rodgers, Grant, Jennings) but it is their defence that concerns me as well as their offensive line. The defence overachieved last season and should regress, particularly considering the age of the top defenders, while the offensive line was not particularly great at pass protection. The Packers also had major discipline issues as well as some abhorrent special teams play. The Packers are only a fair team to my eye and an 8-8 season would not surprise me in the slightest. Stay away from the Packers.

The money for the Packers makes the Minnesota Vikings great value. Old Number Four is back in town and he will walk away a winner. The Vikings are my Super Bowl tip. They are chock full of talent across the board and they can go the distance this year.

The Vikings were so nearly in the Super Bowl last season. They went within a field goal and a dumb play of beating the champion Saints. Minnesota were arguably the best team in the NFC last year. Adrian Peterson’s performances declined but he was still one of the top tailbacks in the NFL. Brett Favre had his best season in a decade, showing he still has what it takes when surrounded by offensive weapons and a decent line and you have to assume that the machine will operate with greater slickness as the team enjoys its second year with Favre. The receivers developed nicely. The Vikings have arguably the best defensive line in the NFL with Jarred Allen the most destructive pass-rusher in the game. They are a top-six team both sides of the ball and even their special teams should improve this year. The argument against Minnesota is that Favre will eventually be found out because of his age but there is no evidence that Favre is going to suffer any significant decline.

The Vikings are the real deal and still have another year left in their title window.

The Chicago Bears don’t look as bad as everyone is predicting. Chicago went 7-9 last season and did so on the back of a horrible offense created by a line that could neither run block or pass protect, a quarterback incapable of using common sense and a young and inexperienced receiving corps. Defensively, the Bears weren’t much better, ranking 21st in points allowed. The Bears have made adjustments this year though including overhauling the coaching staff, bringing in Julius Peppers on defence and improving the offensive line. Cutler will surely get better under Mike Martz, the passing and running games should improve with a better offensive line and a healthier defence should see the Bears become more effective without the ball. With a good special teams unit, the Bears can improve enough to make the playoffs. They will only need to find two more wins and that is very doable. They may even sneak the division.

Detroit improved from zero to two wins in 2009. Indicators suggest they will improve but that is probably more just a factor of how far off the pace they are. Matt Stafford looks shaky and they have too many holes on defence. The Lions will run a tailed off last in the NFC North.

Bets:

• 2 ½ units on Green Bay under 10 wins @ 2.00 (Betchoice)
• 1 unit on Chicago over 7.5 wins @ 1.69 (Sportsbet)
• 0.5 units on Chicago over 8 wins @ 2.36 (Pinnacle)
• 0.25 units on Minnesota to win the Super Bowl @ 16.78 (Pinnacle)
• 0.5 units on Minnesota to win the NFC @ 8.50 (Sportsbet)
• 1 unit on Minnesota to win NFC North @ 3.00 (Sportingbet)
• 0.5 units on Chicago to win the NFC North @ 7.62 (Pinnacle)

NFC South: When the Saints go Marching Out

There have been few more popular teams in the history of football than the champion 2009 New Orleans Saints. Led by the passing game of Drew Brees, the Saints played an exciting yet effective brand of football that was a thrill to watch. Combined with the fairytale of a New Orleans Super Bowl win so close after Hurricane Katrina and the mediocre history of the franchise, the Saints became a beloved victor.

Winners like the Saints rarely last though. Unexpected winners tend to be too satisfied with their achievements and those who do it the way the Saints did present too many opportunities to be cut down. Bill Simmons calls it the disease of more. Sadly, 2010 will see a decline in the Saints play.

That isn’t to say the Saints won’t win the NFC South. To my eye they are in a close battle with the Atlanta Falcons for the division with both likely to proceed to the playoffs. The Saints have one of the all-time great offenses. Drew Brees ranks in the top three quarterbacks in the NFL yet there is no standout receiver and the offense is well balanced between the pass and the run. The Saints can pound the ball as well as putting up scores with big passing plays. It wasn’t the offense that propelled the Saints to Super Bowl glory though. The Saints have had a top rated offense since Brees arrived. It was the massive improvement in defence that pushed the Saints to greatness, particularly safety Darren Sharper, who had a career year. The Saints defence made a habit of big pass rushes, high turnovers and return touchdowns. That kind of play is not sustainable and they mask the failures the Saints defence has had being unable to stop the run.

The Saints will again be wonderful to watch and they will again be in the playoffs but they will not be a 13-3 team again and they won’t win back-to-back Lombardi Trophies. New Orleans look a 10 win team this year.

The main challenge to the Saints will be the Atlanta Falcons. I expected the Falcons would fall apart in 2009 after an 11-5 2008 but Atlanta bounced back with a 9-7 record and just missed the playoffs. It was the first time the Falcons had back-to-back .500 seasons and they seem to have the balance and ability to build on two successful seasons. Matt Ryan seems like a potential top-level quarterback, Michael Turner is a powerhouse running back, Tony Gonzalez is an ageless tight end and the offensive line is disciplined and solid. On the other side of the ball, they have an effective pass rush with John Abraham and they have upgraded their secondary. Atlanta are a 9-10 win team with a playoff appearance in their tea leaves.

The Carolina Panthers have had only one sub-seven win season since 1999 so it is difficult to predict the Panthers suffering too great a fall, particularly with coach John Fox in the last year of his contract. They really don’t look much better than a seven win team though. Firing Jake Delhomme was a major positive but Matt Moore is in a fight for the quarterback job which could cause instability at the club while the lack of a viable alternative receiver puts too much pressure on Steve Smith and subsequently the running game. The Panthers can run the ball with Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart but the rushing game will be hurt by the lack of an adequate passing attack. Defensively, the Panthers look adequate but after clearing out a number of veterans including Julius Peppers, they don’t shape as an elite unit. The Panthers went 8-8 last year and don’t look to have gotten any better.

Tampa Bay again looks terrible. The Bucs need a mulligan for last year after going through both coordinators and three quarterbacks. They have a bad offensive line and not much of a pass rush and a big improvement on their 3-13 record seems extraordinarily optimistic.

Bets:

• 0.75 units on Atlanta to win NFC South @ 3.20 (Sportsbet)
• 0.25 units on Atlanta to win NFC @ 14.00 (Sportsbet)
• 0.25 units on Atlanta to win Super Bowl @ 31.00 (Centrebet)

NFC West: Oh Lord, How Long I Have Waited

The NFC West is a race in two and for the first time in a decade my beloved San Francisco 49ers shape as genuine contenders to claim the division they have not won since those heady days of 2002. The Niners are, in fact, favourites to claim the NFC West and considering how putrid the talent in the division in, those dreams don’t seem so forlorn.

Make no mistake. The NFC West is a truly awful division. Nine wins could well be enough to crown a team divisional champion as it has in three of the last six years with ten wins being enough in two more of those years. Both St Louis and Seattle are no hope of making it to nine wins making this a battle between Arizona and San Francisco.

The Rams again look dreadful though they will surely improve on the last three seasons that has seen the once-proud club win only six games and regress each year. In St Louis, hope goes by the name of Sam Bradford. If he can adapt to the NFL quickly and the young receiving corps led by Donnie Avery can help him, the Rams can win a few games. They do have some talent in tailback Steven Jackson and safety O.J Atogwe but the holes are too big, the mountain too steep and the experience simply not there. They project as a five-win team but that is primarily based on a -13 turnover differential and another shocking run of injuries last year.

Seattle look marginally better but an injury here or a piece of bad luck there and they could well run stone motherless. The Seahawks are at the beginning of a long road to rebuilding and they are doing so with a new coach who has been exceptionally poor at the pro level in Pete Carroll. The former USC boss has got little to work with at Seattle, whose poor offensive line and lack of skilled backs or wideouts has the offense as limp as an impotent Greens voter while a lack of a pass rush and a poor secondary has led to a sieve like defence. Throw in an aging quarterback whose skills are declining in Matt Hasselbeck and the outlook is not good for Seattle. The Seahawks could go either way from their five win total but I can’t see them breaking seven wins, the absolute best they could finish. They just don’t have the cattle.

Arizona have won the NFC West the last two years and it is fair to say that it has been the passing game of Kurt Warner that has pushed them above their three mediocre opponents. Warner is now retired and outstanding number two receiver Anquan Boldin has left and just as concerning has been the release of heir apparent to the quarterback role in Matt Leinart, leaving the unreliable Derek Anderson in charge of the team. A total collapse of the offense would not surprise considering a probable hall-of-famer is gone from under centre and star receiver Larry Fitzgerald will likely suffer from constant double-teaming due to a poor running game and no other receiving threat.

The story with the defence is no better with a big turnover of players including star linebacker Karlos Danby and safety Antrell Rolle. The Cardinals still have outstanding tackle Darnell Dockett and top notch safety Adrian Wilson but the holes are large and the Cardinals are sure to suffer a decline, particularly considering the good run of health Arizona had last year. They look a 7-8 win team.

Almost as a matter of default, that leaves us with the San Francisco 49ers, the one team on the up who appear close enough to claim the divisional title for the first time since Jeff Garcia was throwing to Terrell Owens (and just before Owens accused Garcia, publicly, of being a homosexual). These are exciting times for the Bay Bombers and one that could even lead, heaven forbid, to a playoff victory.

There is plenty to like about the Niners this year. Frank Gore is an elite runner who will only get better with an upgraded offensive line that struggled to create gaps for him last year. Alex Smith will benefit from having the same offensive system for consecutive years for the first time since heading to San Fran. Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis are classy receiving threats. With players like Patrick Willis, Aubrayo Franklin, Justin Smith and Shawntae Spencer, the Niners have a defence that would rate in the top quarter of the NFL and well on top of the NFC West. If the Niners can get an improvement from their offense, their defence should carry them to the nine wins that will be required.

While San Francisco certainly are the team to beat in the West, caution is advised, Mike Singletary still has a lot to prove as a coach and the offense has the potential to go backwards. They benefitted from a +9 turnover ratio and they were reasonably healthy. I think the Niners win the division but the red flags are such that I cannot advise backing them.

Bets:

• 2 units on Seattle under 7 ½ wins @ 1.65 (Sportsbet)
• 2 units on Seattle under 7 wins @ 1.85 (Betchoice)

Division Champions: New York Giants, Minnesota, New Orleans, San Francisco
Wildcards: Chicago, Atlanta

NFC Championship Game: Minnesota v New York Giants

Super Bowl: Pittsburgh v Minnesota
Super Bowl Winner: Minnesota