Pines and Mines: A Look at Tasmania and Western Australia (and the ACT and Northern Territory for Good Measure)
Tasmania and Western Australia have very little in common with the exception of a love of Australian Rules football and the fact I have never set foot in either. Politically they are also extraordinarily diverse with Tasmania being the most left-leaning state in Australia (with the exception of the period between 1975 and 1987 where the fall of the Whitlam Government precipitated 12 years of Coalition totality in Tasmania and the Franklin Dam dispute saw the state furiously turn its back on Labor) and the home of the Australian Greens while Western Australia has consistently voted conservative with the exception of the period between 1983-90 when they backed local boy Bob Hawke (though it is interesting to note that West Australian Kim Beazley only achieved 49.5% and 48.4% of the two-party preferred when he led the ALP to election in 1998 and 2001).
Electorally, however, Tasmania and Western Australia have two things in common: both precincts are often overlooked on election night and both have a high proportion of marginal seats.
In Tasmania, two of the five seats are often up for grabs in Bass and Braddon making 40% of the Apple Isle key to the election outcome.
Bass has changed hands five times in the last six elections with Labor’s Michelle O’Byrne the only MP to successfully defend the seat over that period, winning in 1998 and keeping it in 2001. At present it is held by Labor with a margin of 1% and is now an open seat after controversial sitting member Jodie Campbell chose to retire (see, forced out by factional politics). Betting has Labor at $1.72 to hold onto the seat with the Coalition $2.20 to win Bass. There has been a sprinkling of money for the Coalition and a small bet exists on playing the Coalition to hold the seat at $2.20 as this contest is a pure flip-of-the-coin contest. The pork barrel will roll through pretty hard over the remainder of the campaign and will likely determine the winner. I still have this seat going Labor but the prices suggest the Coalition are worth a play.
Braddon is a little more clear-cut this time around though with ALP MP Sid Sidebottom having a margin of 2.3%. The seat has been in Labor hands since 1998 with the exception of 2004-07 when a backlash against Mark Latham saw the seat go Liberal. It is unlikely there will be any significant move against Labor this time around. The $1.35 on offer at Sportingbet is a wager.
Labor has a safe hold on Denison, Franklin and Lyons with margins ranging from 4% to 15.3%. Bets exist in all three seats. Sportsbet are generously offering $1.05 about the ALP holding onto Denison as they have since 1987 and currently do with a 15.3% margin. Thank you very much. There is some talk that the Greens may threaten but that simply won’t happen with their uninspiring candidate. The ALP underperformed in Franklin last time due to internal party squabbling over preselection and the axing of former MP Harry Quick but with those problems overcome Julie Collins will have few problems in maintaining the Labor dominance over the seat seen since 1993. Sportsbet are offering $1.27 about Labor holding onto Franklin, a clear bet. Lyons has had three members in 67 years, “Big” Dick Adams is popular (he survived the Mark Latham Tasmania fiasco in 2004) with locals and the margin is 8.3% yet Sportingbet have found it in their hearts to offer $1.10.
Tasmania will remain predominantly Labor with the two-party preferred across the state ranging from 51.6% to 57.3% since the state went home to the ALP in 1993. They will take four seats and will most likely maintain the sweep.
Over in Western Australia, the state has voted Liberal since 1990 and has provided the Coalition with a majority of seats at every election since then bar 1998. The state also voted Liberal prior to Bob Hawke with the home town bump significant for Labor, as the ALP will find out in Queensland Saturday week. The concerns over the mining tax should see the state continue to be a blue ribbon Coalition state.
Out West, five of the fifteen seats can be considered up for contest with the Coalition having a safe hold on seven and the ALP sitting on three.
Of the safe Coalition seats, Forrest provides the best wager with Centrebet offering $1.15 about Nola Marino. Western Australia is unlikely to move any further to Labor and Marino’s 5.4% looks more than a big enough cushion. There is interest in Dusack and O’Connor but that is because of the Nationals resurgence in the state and there is some thought they may steal the seat from their Liberal opponents, Barry Haase and “Iron Bar” Wilson Tuckey.
Fremantle offers the best easy collect of the safe Labor seats with Sportsbet offering $1.09 about the seat staying in Labor hands as it has for nearly its entire history. Perth will stay Labor and Brand, despite concerns from within the ALP, should stay the same after the fire of Kevin Rudd’s proposed mining tax was reduced to a simmer by Julia Gillard.
At present the Coalition have an 11-4 edge in seats and Labor genuinely fear having their seat count reduced to their lowest margin since 1977 when Labor held just one of the ten seats. The party is bracing for the worst in their only marginal seat in Hasluck and are not expecting to “hold” their now notional seat of Swan.
Hasluck has a margin of only 1% and was thought lost for all money at the height of the mining tax furore but recent polling suggests a close contest is on the cards. Betting backs this up with favouritism split across the books with $2.00 the best price on offer for Labor’s Sharryn Jackson and $2.05 available on the Coalition’s Ken Wyatt. Labor are throwing a lot of money at saving the seat but I fancy this one may go to the Coalition. No bet but a change of hands looks likely.
Swan is now notionally an ALP seat after redistribution added 0.4% to Labor making it a 0.3% ALP seat but Liberal MP Steve Irons is expected to retain the seat with between $1.38 and $1.60 on offer for a Coalition win in the seat. Local polling has the Coalition on top and with a swing to the Coalition expected the $1.60 (Sportingbet) looks like a quality play.
The Coalition held Canning, Cowan and Swan are the three remaining marginal in WA. These are all the Coalition’s to lose. Canning has a margin of 4.4% while Stirling and Cowan are running at 1.3%. Stirling is the safest of these. Michael Keenan held off a strong challenge last election and with the move expected to go back to the Coalition, he should hold on. The $1.30 is probably a touch of overs but not enough to recommend a bet. The same is true of Cowan where polling has Liberal Luke Simpkins winning re-election. $1.25 is the best price available. Former Lord Mayor of Perth Chas Hopkins is some hope at $4.30 and would be the play if forced to bet but this is probably one to let go. Canning is interesting with the reality being the seat is a lot closer than the 4.4% margin suggests. Labor are fielding a high profile candidate and redistribution heavily favours Labor. The Coalition are ahead in most polls and Randall should hang on but I couldn’t jump into the $1.50.
One bet that does provide value is betting the ALP to win under 3.5 seats in Western Australia at $2.28 (Centrebet). This is pretty much a bet on Hasluck and offers a better price than the $2.05 available for the Coalition winning the seat in individual seat betting.
The Northern Territory became interesting when receiving a second seat in 2001 with the seat of Solomon, based around Darwin, historically regarded as marginal with only 88 votes determining the winner in 2001 and 196 votes in 2007. Betting suggests another tight race with sitting Labor MP Damian Hale and Liberal challenger Natasha Griggs both $1.90 with bookmakers. In its short history it has always gone with the Government, making it somewhat of a bellwether and with the significant money for Labor throughout the week, it looks like Hale is a good bet. There are some concerns though with Hale being a somewhat controversial figure, ejected from Parliament more than any other MP and being involved in two nightclub incidents in the last three years including a fight with Fremantle star Chris Tarrant as well as having a domestic violence order slapped on him by his estranged wife. Combined with the unpopularity of the state Labor Government, who are governing in minority, there could be a move against Hale and any small move would cost him the seat. I don’t think there will be though with the Liberal candidate closely associated with the unpopular Territory Chief Minister and Territorians traditionally enjoy a bit of ruggedness in their politics. A small bet exists for Labor taking Solomon at the $1.90 on offer with most books.
Lingari is safely in the hands of Labor’s Warren Snowden but the $1.03 on offer doesn’t offer much value.
There are no bets in the ACT with Labor certain to win both Canberra and Fraser. The only interest in the ACT is the fight for the second Senate seat with Liberal Gary Humphries in for a dog of a fight to hold out the Greens. Those of us who used to work at the old Portlandbet are also interested to see Andrew Leigh running as the ALP candidate in Fraser. Leigh is an economist from the ANU who has taken a great deal of interest in political betting throughout his career (writing extensively on it) and helped out with Portlandbet’s election markets last time around.
The lay of the land is this. Labor will win 4 of the 5 seats in Tasmania and most likely Bass. I fancy the Coalition will pick up a seat in Western Australia to take their share to 12-3 in the state. Labor are in no danger in three of their seats in the territories while I think they will hold the fourth. This should lead to a net pickup of one for the Coalition in these four precincts.
Recommended Bets
TAS-Bass: Coalition at 2.20 (Sportsbet)
TAS-Braddon: ALP at 1.35 (Sportingbet)
TAS-Denison: ALP at 1.05 (Sportsbet)
TAS-Franklin: ALP at 1.27 (Sportsbet)
TAS-Lyons: ALP at 1.10 (Sportingbet)
WA-Forrest: Coalition at 1.15 (Centrebet)
WA-Fremantle: ALP at 1.09 (Sportsbet)
NT-Solomon: ALP at 1.90 (Sportsbet, Sports Alive, Sportingbet)
ALP Under 3.5 seats in WA at 2.28 (Centrebet)