Racing’s Kiss of Death – April 20

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on April 18, 2013

This week’s selections cover the April 20 meetings at Randwick (featuring the Group 1 Australian Oaks and the Group 1 Doncaster Handicap) and Eagle Farm.

Results for April 13 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – nil

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Flemington – Bonaria ($7.00 SP, $8.00 BOB) – Won

Flemington – Goldoni ($7.50) – unplaced

Randwick – Havana Rey ($7.00) – unplaced

Randwick – Detours ($8.00) – unplaced

Morphettville – Platelet ($6.00) – second

April 13 results:   5 selections, 5 units bet, 1 winner, 1 placing, SP return of $7.00, BOB return of $8.00

2013 results:  23 selections, 23 units bet, 4 winners, 8 placings, SP return of 28.00 units (22% PoT), BOB return of 33.00 units (43% PoT)

2011-2013 results: 160 selections, 153 units bet, 19 winners, 48 placings, SP return of 142.00 units (-11% PoT), BOB return of 159.90 units (-0.1% PoT)

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Nil

April 13 results:   no selections

2013 results: 12 selections, 6 units bet, 3 winners (1 dead heat), no placings, SP return of 16.00 units (167% PoT), BOB return of 18.70 units (212% PoT)

2011-2013 results: 81 selections, 40.5 units bet, 7 winners, 8 placings, SP return of 51.00 units (26% PoT), BOB return of 59.05 units (46% PoT)

Overall Results

April 13:  5 selections, 5 units bet, 1 winner, 1 placing, SP return of $7.00, BOB return of $8.00

2013:  35 selections, 29 units bet, 7 winners (1 dead heat), 8 placings, SP return of 44.00 units (52% PoT), BOB return of 51.70 units (78% PoT)

2011-2013: 241 selections, 200.5 units bet, 26 winners, 56 placings, SP return of 193.00 units (-4% PoT), BOB return of 218.95 units (9% PoT)

Saturday April 20

Randwick (tips based on a track rating range of dead 4 to slow 7)

Race 6 No. 11 Scream Machine

  • His three runs this time in have been very sound, culminating in a sixth placed finish (beaten only 2.6 lengths) in the Group 3 Doncaster Prelude last Saturday.
  • He is a galloper who needs a couple of runs before reaching peak performance – he has nine starts for no wins and three placings when  first or second-up, compared to 10 runs for four wins and four placings thereafter.
  • He has two wins and a placing from three previous starts over 2000 metres.

Race 8 No. 11 Appearance

  • How often does a horse who has won three Group 1 races in their last five starts (one over the exact distance of this race, two over a trip which was only 100 metres shorter) get into a race only half a kilo over the limit and go around at potentially double figure odds? I have to be involved here.
  • She almost always hits a flat spot second-up (four starts, no wins, one placing), but subtract those runs and her career record is outstanding (nine starts, six wins, two placings).
  • She has had two previous starts over this distance for two wins (one at Group 1 level), and a total of four wins from four starts (three at Group 1 level) over the 1500-1600 metre distance range.
  • Pierro is undoubtedly a star and may well win this race comfortably – just remember though that many thought the same of Lonhro when he went around as a short-priced favourite in a Doncaster and finished unplaced.

Eagle Farm (tips based on a track rating range of slow 6 to heavy 10)

Race 6 No. 6 Transporter  

  • His career really highlights a need for racing before he reaches his best – six first or second-up starts for no wins and two placings, compared to 13 starts for seven wins and four placings thereafter.
  • He has three wins and two seconds from six starts at the trip, including an emphatic 5.8 length victory last start.
  • With Ginga Dude compressing the weight scale, he manages to get into this race on the 54-kilo limit.

Race 8 No. 19 Signified 

  • He was an unlucky third last start behind River Lad and Metallurgical when blocked for clear running in the straight.
  • He has five wins and a second from seven previous starts on slow or heavy surfaces.
  • He has three wins and three placings from eight starts at the distance, including two wins and a placing from three starts at the track and trip.

 

Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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