Racing’s Kiss of Death – February 16

Filed in Horse Racing, The Sting's Racing Selections by on February 14, 2013

This week’s selections cover the February 16 meetings at Flemington (featuring the return of Black Caviar, as she sets out after a 23rdstraight victory and a third straight win in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes) and Rosehill.

Results for February 9 selections

Tips which were either scratched, outside the prescribed track conditions or too short in price

Scratched – nil

Track outside prescribed range – nil

Odds too short (less than $6 SP) – Whisper Downs

Tips where the SP was in the $6-$9.50 range (1 unit bets)

Caulfield – Bonnie Mac ($6.50 SP) – unplaced

Warwick Farm – Centennial Park ($7.50) – unplaced

February 9 results:   2 selection, 2 units bet, no winners, no placings

2013 results:  5 selections, 5 units bet, no winners, 1 placing, SP return of 0.00 units, BOB return of 0.00 units

Tips where the SP was in the $10+ range (0.5 unit bets)

Caulfield – Good Ba Ba ($10.00 SP) – unplaced

Warwick Farm – Punch Your Weight ($13.00) – unplaced

February 9 results:  2 selections, 1 unit bet, no winners, no placings

2013 results:  6 selections, 3 units bet, 1 winner, no placings, SP return of $7.50, BOB return of $8.40

Overall Results

February 9:  4 selections, 3 units bet, no winners, no placings

2013:  11 selections, 8 units bet, 1 winner, 1 placing, SP return of $7.50, BOB return of $8.40

 

Saturday February 16

Flemington (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 3 No. 8 Perfectly Stunning

  • After winning first-up at Sandown Hillside, she got back and failed to make an impact when finishing sixth at this track second-up before winning again at Sandown off a three and a half week break. Clearly her best performances come when her runs are well spaced, and she’s had four and a half weeks off leading into this run.
  • Vibrant Rouge ran second to her last start at Sandown, before running an unlucky fourth at Group 3 level last Saturday at Caulfield, so the form line looks a strong one.
  • While her two previous runs at 1400 metres have both been unplaced, she has two wins at 1300 metres and a win over 1650 metres, so I doubt that the distance is any real problem.
  • She is also far better suited on fairly dry tracks – she has three wins from seven starts on good or dead-rated tracks, compared to no wins and one placing from four starts on slow or heavy-rated tracks.

Race 9 No. 2 Langridge Street

  • He won very well over 1400 metres at this track when second-up, then was a little one-paced (most likely looking for a longer trip) when fifth at Caulfield over 1400 metres last start, so the increase in distance to 1700 metres here should suit him.
  • He is a winner at his only previously run over 1700 metres, while three of his four career wins to date have come at distances of between 1600 and 2000 metres.
  • From barrier one and with only 56.5 kilos after the claim, he can roll forward and take it up to the likely favourite (The New boy) throughout.

Rosehill (tips based on a track rating range of good 2 to dead 5)

Race 7 No. 3 Riva De Lago

  • Showed his best form last time around when a convincing winner at this very track, distance and class (BM95).
  • Rosehill is his preferred track, with two wins and two placings from six starts here, including wins at both of his previous attempts at the track/ distance.
  • While he goes up in weight 2.5 kilos from that last start win, he is also drawn in barrier one (compared to number 12 last time), which from the 1400-metre start at Rosehill is likely to make the run in transit much easier.

Race 8 No. 13 Upshot

  • A lightly raced galloper, he has four wins and a second from nine career starts, including two wins and a second from three starts over 1200 (the distance of this race) or 1250 metres.
  • His one previously start at Rosehill resulted in a ninth-place finish over 1300 metres, but he drew off the track and in barrier 13 and was posted wide for much of the race, so it can be forgiven. This time he has barrier three and can expect a muhc easier run.
  • He has won first-up previously, and beat home Group 1 winner Streama in a recent trial at Warwick Farm.

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Thanks to Vince Caligiuri/Getty Images AsiaPac for use of the photo

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